It is as good as any. CBS has its own delegate count as well The differences are not that significant. The bottom line is that Obama will go into the convention with about a 150 pledged delegate lead over Hillary.
With 409 unpledged superdelegates remaining, Mrs. Clinton would have to split them 255 to 154 in her favor, which is 62.3%. Mrs. Clinton has a lifetime of favors to call in and has been currying favor with these people since 1990. Obama is a freshman Senator with nothing to give.
NC has 115 delegates. Blacks make up nearly 50% of registered Dem voters. Oregon [52 delegates], Montana [16], and South Dakota [15] are expected to go to Obama. If Obama gets just 55% of these 198 delegates, i.e., 109 delegates, Hillary would have to win 166 of the remaining 210 [80%] to achieve 255. That just ain't going to happen.
I am not saying it is likely that she can do this, but it is possible. As long as that possibility remains, she will stay in this race.
I think that the DNC will eliminate that possibility before the convention. If Hillary doesn't voluntarily get out after NC, they will poll the super delegates who will give Obama the needed victory margin. They can't allow this to get to the convention for a decision.
However there are still 12 delegates to be allocated from Pennsylvania, and those will probably go to Clinton 10-2. So after that, it will be Obama with 1718 and Clinton with 1340 pledged, and 1598, a difference of only 120.
According to CBS, Hillary received 82 to Obama's 73. CNN has it 81 to 69. What 12 delegates are you referring to? Are you including PA's super delegates into the total? In any event, CNN has the total delegates as 1,719 to 1,586 in favor of Obama and CBS has it 1,715 to 1,585.
I went to the CNN delegate tracker where you can plug in the numbers for the remaining future contests and see how the delegates will add up. Even if you give Hillary Clinton 53% victories in every contest and Obama gets 47% he still winds up with 1911 delegates and monster lady with 1799 delegates. That leaves him only 113 delegates short. He will get at least 113 of the 300 or so remaining superdelegates. Right there he gets to 2024 and he clinches it, he can declare victory and she really doesn’t have an argument. He’s got it. I think there is a great deal of animosity against the Clinton’s and this will be the chance to make them go away. The superdelegates will not overturn his lead in the delegates, even if she has a slight lead in popular vote assuming she would win every contest with 53%. That is a huge fantasy anyway. It is not enough. I think they will tie in Indiana or be about 51 - 49%, he is going to win very big in North Carolina 56 - 44%, and probably Oregon, Montana, South Dakota as well with her winning West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico.