The Superdelegates will decide this contest. Neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to win without them. Mrs. Clinton needs to make an argument to the Superdelegates, and you can be sure that argument will focus on two points: 1) That she won the important states that the Democrats will have to win in the Fall and 2) That she won the popular vote.
The Superdelegates do not have to be bound by the pledged delegate totals. In fact, the pledged delegate totals are probably least persuasive argument, because everybody agrees that the method of apportioning pledged delegates is fatally flawed. The Superdelegates could make their choice based Astrology and the phases of the Moon, if that's what they want to do.
At the end of the day, it will come down to electability. Hillary Clinton is going to have much more convincing evidence of electability, when all is said and done.
No, the super delegates AND the pledged delegates will decide the contest. FYI: Even the pledged delegates can vote for whomever they want.
Let's look at the math using the CNN data.
Currently, Obama has 1,719 delegates [1,487 pledged and 232 super delegates] while Hillary has 1,586 delegates [1,331 pledged and 255 super delegates]. You need 2,025 delegates to get the nomination which leaves Obama 306 short and Hillary 439 short.
There are nine primaries left with 408 delegates at stake. Although the odds are that Obama will win more than 50% of the remaining delegates, assume that he only gets 50, i.e., 204 delegates. This would give Obama 1,923 delegates or 102 short of the nomination. Hillary would have 1,790 delgates or 235 delegates short.
There are 308 super delegates not pledged to either candidate yet. Obama needs just 102 delegates or one-third of the uncommitted delegates to win the nomination. Hillary needs three-quarters of the remaing super delegates to win. Pretty impossible odds.
The Dem party leaders know the math. They want Hillary to drop out knowing full well she can't win the nomination. I suspect that they will give her an offer she can't refuse after the NC primary. She will drop out then. There is no way this goes to the convention for a vote without already knowing the result, i.e., Obama gets the nomination.