Posted on 02/09/2008 12:25:57 PM PST by neverdem
Global Cooling comes back in a big way
Dr. Kenneth Tapping is worried about the sun. Solar activity comes in regular cycles, but the latest one is refusing to start. Sunspots have all but vanished, and activity is suspiciously quiet. The last time this happened was 400 years ago -- and it signaled a solar event known as a "Maunder Minimum," along with the start of what we now call the "Little Ice Age."
Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, says it may be happening again. Overseeing a giant radio telescope he calls a "stethoscope for the sun," Tapping says, if the pattern doesn't change quickly, the earth is in for some very chilly weather.
During the Little Ice Age, global temperatures dropped sharply. New York Harbor froze hard enough to allow people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island, and in Britain, people reported sighting eskimos paddling canoes off the coast. Glaciers in Norway grew up to 100 meters a year, destroying farms and villages.
But will it happen again?
In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov predicted the sun would soon peak, triggering a rapid decline in world temperatures. Only last month, the view was echoed by Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. who advised the world to "stock up on fur coats." Sorokhtin, who calls man's contribution to climate change "a drop in the bucket," predicts the solar minimum to occur by the year 2040, with icy weather lasting till 2100 or beyond.
Observational data seems to support the claims -- or doesn't contradict it, at least. According to data from Britain's Met Office, the earth has cooled very slightly since 1998. The Met Office says global warming "will pick up again shortly." Others aren't so sure.
Researcher Dr. Timothy Patterson, director of the Geoscience Center at Carleton University, shares the concern. Patterson is finding "excellent correlations" between solar fluctuations, a relationship that historically, he says doesn't exist between CO2 and past climate changes. According to Patterson. we shouldn't be surprised by a solar link. "The sun [is] the ultimate source of energy on this planet," he says.
Such research dates back to 1991, when the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study showing that world temperatures over the past several centuries correlated very closely with solar cycles. A 2004 study by the Max Planck Institute found a similar correlation, but concluded the timing was only coincidental, as the solar variance seemed too small to explain temperature changes.
However, researchers at DMI continued to work, eventually discovering what they believe to be the link. The key factor isn't changes in solar output, but rather changes in the sun's magnetosphere A stronger field shields the earth more from cosmic rays, which act as "seeds" for cloud formation. The result is less cloud cover, and a warming planet. When the field weakens, clouds increases, reflecting more light back to space, and the earth cools off.
Recently, lead researcher Henrik Svensmark was able to experimentally verify the link between cosmic rays and cloud formation, in a cloud chamber experiment called "SKY" at the Danish National Space Center. CERN plans a similar experiment this year.
A few years ago, Stanford University's Hoover Institution also reported finding a correlation between the sun and climate. Hoover
Even NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies -- long the nation's most ardent champion of anthropogenic global warming -- is getting in on the act. Drew Shindell, a researcher at GISS, says there are some "interesting relationships we don't fully understand" between solar activity and climate.
Ya got me beat - by about 6"
Your Place: Alaska:
Those mountains in the background sure add to the ambiance
Below: My place, Maine"
But we got 6 more inches coming tonight -
I'd sure love to have 6 months of sunlight - but I don't know's I could slog through the opposite
and oh, how they feast on their flesh like maggots, rats and vultures.
An astronomer named Khabibullo
Claimed the sun was increasingly dull-o
"Where I used to see lots
I no longer see spots
And the flares seem to be in a lull-o."
"Not so fast," said a fellow named Gore
"If they're lacking we need to make more.
Sunspot credits, you see,
You can purchase from me,
And I promise you warming galore!"
But the sun is decreasingly bright
As the heat of the day fades to night
Al's counting the ducats
In their bags, bins, and buckets.
It turns out P.T. Barnum was right.
I'll pass on "Abdusamatov," thanks. Too dang hard.
LOL!
Really, really good.
The sun has been virtually blank for probably the last six months or so. Pretty strange sight. Finally got a small “cycle 24 sunspot” a week or so ago, but it’s gone now.
I just downloaded the data files and did a count:
Ol’Sol was blank for 161 days in 2007 - no spots at all for half the year.
This is a NASA image of the sun on February 8, 2008 that readers can learn more about by going to www.spaceweather.com
The 70 year Maunder Minimum that extended from 1645 to 1715 coincided with the coldest portion of what is known as "The Little Ice Age" in Europe and North America.
Ping to the Light Verse Brigade. Why not? It’s Saturday night...
Looks like you are right :)
The pattern goes back a lot longer than the 1970's. "Journalists have warned of climate change for 100 years, but can’t decide whether we face an ice age or warming." See Fire and Ice.
...women, chil'ren and minorities / gays, hardest hit.....film @ 11.....BTTT
wtf?
If you don't freeze it off first. It's gonna get COLD, and much sooner and more obviously than Global Warming was supposed to get...well warm.
Uuuh, sure
Whew! For a minute I thought you were talking about me.
Cheers!
Thanks, I moved up from Arizona to re-experience winter.
I owe ya...
...how does a tall cold beer sound? This summer, that is, I gave up both alcohol and chocolate for Lent.
Cheers!
DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING!
NO More Calls, Please.
WE have a winner!
Well I guess Global warming is over!
Call Al Gore let him know.
You make it look easy. Ping to a coupla more Light Verse Brigadiers.
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