Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 02/06/2008 8:47:27 AM PST by milwguy
NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C., today.
“La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter,” said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La Niña. Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average.
(Excerpt) Read more at noaanews.noaa.gov ...
Like government employees in other agencies, there is no penalty for being wrong at NOAA. You can’t be fired for making the same mistakes over and over. It’d be hard to find anyone who comes in early or stays late.
The old fortune-telling methods of using chicken entrails and reading tea leaves worked better than whatever “science” the NOAA is using.
Temps are warm = Man-Made Climate Change
Temps are cold = Man-Made Climate Change
Temps are stable = Worry about Man-Made Climate Change
Also...
Droughts = Man-Made Climate Change
Floods = Man-Made Climate Change
Hurricanes = Man-Made Climate Change
Tornadoes = Man-Made Climate Change
No Droughts, Floods, Hurricanes, Tornadoes = Worry About Man-Made Climate Change
do I need a /sarc tag?
Not that long ago a friend of mine made a similar comment, and he works at NOAA.
OTOH, it is 30+ degrees warmer in this part of VA than normal for this time of the year. 75 degrees right now.
The folks at NOAA aren’t making mistakes. They are demonstrating that they do not understand the processes of weather and climate well enough to be able to make accurate predictions. Their predictions were based on assumptions. Events have proven those assumptions to be wrong. That’s why forecasts outside the 3-5 day window are garbage.
Oh, by the way, the same process is used to build the Global Climate models that tell us what the effects of Global Warming will be and what role arthopogenic inputs play. Their assumptions are certainly wrong and cannot be otherwise. Therefore, their predictions of gloom and doom are likewise wrong. They are nothing but soothsayers claiming to know when the world will end.
Since it is certainly much easier to predict climate on earth then a particular weather phenomenon in a certain location why shouldn’t we trust them. At least they are more trustworthy then politicians.
Imagine a guy predicting that if you roled dice for 500 times the average value on the dice would be 3.5.
Would you trust him with that although he is bad at predicting what number comes up next time you throw the dice ?
And here in Northern California, we've had freezing temperatures, heavy rain, wind storms, and unusually cold weather. Maybe there's just no science that can actually and accurately forecast the weather.
I think you have a valid point.
But they do have job security, don't they? I mean, in what other profession can you maintain your job, even when wrong more than 50% of the time?
John McCain, Mitt Romeny and Mike Huckabee all believe ALgore’s hype. Shouldn’t you?
Actually, at least Romney has enough sense to want to drill ANWR, as for McAmnesty and the hUckster, I could care less.
“Imagine a guy predicting that if you roled dice for 500 times the average value on the dice would be 3.5.
Would you trust him with that although he is bad at predicting what number comes up next time you throw the dice ?”
If he were stupid enough to claim to be able to predict what the next dice throw is, then, yes. And the whole point of the debate is we don’t know if the average is 3.5 or not, and whether we should trust people who claim they can predict the next throw to predict even further and more complicated models down the road.
Ding! Ding! Ding!
We have a winner!
The proper term for it is "sensitive dependence upon initial conditions". It's also known as chaos. Long term weather prediction is impossible. That doesn't mean that it's just hard. The facts are that the universe just isn't made such that trowing a few constants and variables into an equation will allow you to predict chotic events like the weather, or atomic decay.
Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown
New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH
Ping me if you find one I've missed.
Dang, a broken clock is at least right twice a day. We might be better off getting weather predictions from that Groundhog.
>>And the whole point of the debate is we don’t know if the average is 3.5 or not, and whether we should trust people who claim they can predict the next throw to predict even further and more complicated models down the road.<<
To predict weather is complicated because weather is a chaotic system - it’s not even practically but theoretically hard to predict.
Compared to that predictions about climate and especially long term average temperature are far more easy to do.
Therefore it’s plain nonsense to claim that climate models cannot be trusted because there is so much uncertainty in weather forecasts.
On top of that no scientist has ever said that the long term average temperature will be growing by a certain temperature like e.g. 2.5 degrees.
The climate modells always yield a bell curve of probability. For Europe this bell curve tells us that most probably a temperture rise of 2 degrees until 2050 will occur. But in the area of 90% certainty of that curve 0 is also included - it’s just half as probable as 2.5.
Isn’t it funny to see how people allways fall for that ?
Seems to be hard to understand that modells to predict a rising or falling long term average temperature HAVE to be easier and more precise then a weather forecast modell.
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