[Rummenigge]

Imagine a guy predicting that if you roled dice for 500 times the average value on the dice would be 3.5.

Would you trust him with that although he is bad at predicting what number comes up next time you throw the dice ?

[Creeping Incrementalism]

“Imagine a guy predicting that if you roled dice for 500 times the average value on the dice would be 3.5.

Would you trust him with that although he is bad at predicting what number comes up next time you throw the dice ?”

If he were stupid enough to claim to be able to predict what the next dice throw is, then, yes. And the whole point of the debate is we don’t know if the average is 3.5 or not, and whether we should trust people who claim they can predict the next throw to predict even further and more complicated models down the road.