Posted on 01/22/2008 10:33:03 AM PST by seanmerc
Both Hillary Clinton and John McCain scored hugely significant wins on Saturday in Nevada and South Carolina, wins which might set them on the road to the nomination.
Hillary is very likely to lose South Carolina because of the large black vote there. Had she lost Nevada too, she would have been badly handicapped going into Florida and Super Tuesday, having suffered two consecutive defeats. But now that she has won Nevada, she can lose South Carolina and still have momentum.
The run-up to South Carolina and the primary itself will feature constant focus on the African-American vote. Analysts and pundits will wonder if the wife of the “first black president” will lose to the real thing. She will. But, in a curious way, this will hurt Obama more than it will help him. It will create a racial subtext to a campaign that, until Iowa, didn’t have one. Watching blacks block vote for Obama will trigger a white backlash that will help Hillary win Florida and to prevail the week after.
McCain’s loss to Mitt Romney in Michigan, following his victory in New Hampshire, can now be written off to a hometown favorite triumphing. Romney’s win in Nevada is easily discounted because of the huge Mormon population there. Nobody else had a chance. His thrashing in South Carolina, however, severely weakens his candidacy and robs him of any momentum from Michigan.
The biggest loser in South Carolina was Rudy Giuliani. He now must face a resurgent McCain in Florida who steals his votes away. Rudy is a bit like the guy who went away to college and came home to find that some other guy had stolen his girl. McCain has used Rudy’s unaccountable absence from the campaign trail to take away the moderates and the national security conservatives to Rudy’s lasting detriment. Had McCain faltered in South Carolina, Rudy could have come on strong in Florida. But with McCain hitting the state soaring, Rudy is in bad shape.
Mike Huckabee will keep on being Huckabee and will win his share of the vote. His showing was good enough to assure that evangelicals won’t desert him and he has now gotten rid of the pesky Fred Thompson who was competing with him for southern votes. The former Arkansas governor will get his share of votes in each of the primaries and his share of delegates to go with them. Likely he will enter the convention without the nomination but with enough of a block of supporters to be a force to be reckoned with within the party. He would make a great VP for McCain.
McCain is, of course, the Republican who, apart from Rudy, would have the best chance to defeat Hillary. She can’t pull the old experience gambit on this long term Senator and his record on everything from global warming to corporate reform to campaign finance to torture to tobacco regulation to immigration reform makes it very hard for Hillary to defeat him. And, because of his appeal to Hispanics left over from his battle for the McCain-Kennedy immigration plan, he is ideally suited to take minority voters, burned by Hillary’s scorched earth policy against Barack Obama, away from the Democrats.
It’s too early to coronate McCain or Hillary but they have clearly moved to the level of front runners as a result of their victories on Saturday.
If that’s the case, I’ll hurl!
Yes, I was a Hunter supporter. I didn’t say I listened to Dick Morris. I just post his articles for the entertainment value.
I guess by saying this, he has cover if it doesn't happen. "I said it might.."
>>>I don’t think its entirely unhealthy for the voters to want an opportunity to break out of the “white guy” tradition of the presidency. I just wish it were a conservative.<<<
You got that right. On the same line of thinking, if Hillary is elected, it’ll set women back for two generations. We might survive Obama if he’s smart enough to keep his ultraleftist ideas to a minimum.
I mostly concur, Barry.
I agree that the liberal NY media despises Guilliani. However, he is still popular with the people of New York.
Were it not for his health problem, I think he would’ve spanked Hillary in her Senate campaign.
Regardless, the Democratic agenda so frightens me that I want the most electible Republican to get the nomination, even if it means their own agenda is more liberal than I would care for. It’s kinda the lesser of 2 evils, if you will.
You’re presuming that McCain will be the Republican nominee. I am not so sure of that.
Then McCain is your man, but I did vote for Rudy today (while holding my nose). Romney’s positions are better, but he is so transparent, I don’t think he could beat the Dems.
JFK versus JFK.
Me too. Morris is always wrong.
Threatening people to back a candidate that they do not fully support just because YOU think that candidate has the best chance to win does not exactly inspire people to follow through on your command.
That's sarcasm right? Like the demon posessed pigs in the NT, we should just run off into the lake.
Put ‘em on the same ticket and I’ll vote for whoever’s running against them!
I am hoping Romney will ask Condi Rice to be his VP.
He has the economics covered, while she has the foreign policy experience.
That would be pretty cool
“Wow, what an insightful and totally out of the blue prediction ..... this is news?”
It is to Dick Morris. A couple weeks ago he was announcing Hillary dead (just the day before her NH ressurection). Then last week he said race was going to be a huge, visible issue (just a day or so before Hillary and Obama made nice nice). Now, mysteriously, Hillary is the front-runner again. I’m willing to bet that, if I looked, I would not find a single retraction, oopsy, or acknowledgment that 99 out of Dick Morris’ last 100 predictions have been wrong. How he keeps working is beyond me.
>> I am hoping Romney will ask Condi Rice to be his VP.
I really think Condi needs to get elected to SOMETHING before running for President or VP. She’s sharp — but a Senate term or two wouldn’t be a bad thing.
H
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.