Nah!
Posted on 01/22/2008 10:33:03 AM PST by seanmerc
Both Hillary Clinton and John McCain scored hugely significant wins on Saturday in Nevada and South Carolina, wins which might set them on the road to the nomination.
Hillary is very likely to lose South Carolina because of the large black vote there. Had she lost Nevada too, she would have been badly handicapped going into Florida and Super Tuesday, having suffered two consecutive defeats. But now that she has won Nevada, she can lose South Carolina and still have momentum.
The run-up to South Carolina and the primary itself will feature constant focus on the African-American vote. Analysts and pundits will wonder if the wife of the “first black president” will lose to the real thing. She will. But, in a curious way, this will hurt Obama more than it will help him. It will create a racial subtext to a campaign that, until Iowa, didn’t have one. Watching blacks block vote for Obama will trigger a white backlash that will help Hillary win Florida and to prevail the week after.
McCain’s loss to Mitt Romney in Michigan, following his victory in New Hampshire, can now be written off to a hometown favorite triumphing. Romney’s win in Nevada is easily discounted because of the huge Mormon population there. Nobody else had a chance. His thrashing in South Carolina, however, severely weakens his candidacy and robs him of any momentum from Michigan.
The biggest loser in South Carolina was Rudy Giuliani. He now must face a resurgent McCain in Florida who steals his votes away. Rudy is a bit like the guy who went away to college and came home to find that some other guy had stolen his girl. McCain has used Rudy’s unaccountable absence from the campaign trail to take away the moderates and the national security conservatives to Rudy’s lasting detriment. Had McCain faltered in South Carolina, Rudy could have come on strong in Florida. But with McCain hitting the state soaring, Rudy is in bad shape.
Mike Huckabee will keep on being Huckabee and will win his share of the vote. His showing was good enough to assure that evangelicals won’t desert him and he has now gotten rid of the pesky Fred Thompson who was competing with him for southern votes. The former Arkansas governor will get his share of votes in each of the primaries and his share of delegates to go with them. Likely he will enter the convention without the nomination but with enough of a block of supporters to be a force to be reckoned with within the party. He would make a great VP for McCain.
McCain is, of course, the Republican who, apart from Rudy, would have the best chance to defeat Hillary. She can’t pull the old experience gambit on this long term Senator and his record on everything from global warming to corporate reform to campaign finance to torture to tobacco regulation to immigration reform makes it very hard for Hillary to defeat him. And, because of his appeal to Hispanics left over from his battle for the McCain-Kennedy immigration plan, he is ideally suited to take minority voters, burned by Hillary’s scorched earth policy against Barack Obama, away from the Democrats.
It’s too early to coronate McCain or Hillary but they have clearly moved to the level of front runners as a result of their victories on Saturday.
Or...it might not, Dick.
Voting for McCain destroys what remains of our sovreignty!
after florida we’ll see where the rudy and fred voters go to if they feel their candidate has no chance. Romney could pick up from both.
Hey Toe, go suck a er, oops, I mean, Dick go suck a toe.
” because of the huge Mormon population there. “
The problem with this is that Mitt drew from far more than just mormons. It was not the Mormons who gave Mitt the victory. Dick should look at the exit poll data.
I thought the Toe Sucker said it was going to be Hillary Vs. Condi! What an idiot.
especially when she’s with natalie portman
ABH
Weren’t you a Hunter supporter? I find it difficult to believe that as such, you’d listen to Morris.
He has this smarmy tone when he speaks that’s hard to take. He really believes he’s a shrewd insider sharing some profound wisdom. He says nothing enlightening.
Dick should look at the exit poll data.
__________________________________________
Dick is brilliant. He need not be slowed down by such pesky details.
yes but Ron Paul came in 2nd. nevada was basically given to him as a free gift
I'm with ya! I would rather you be waterboarded than me vote for McCain, too! :D
McCain has to do the impossible first—win the GOP nomination. Ain’t gonna happen.
Nah!
McCain chooses Rice as his VP? ;)
I would rather see Rice vs. Hillary myself.
and the Bitch will win against everyone but Rudy.
people actually pay this clown for his “insights”?
Depends. If Rudy doesn’t win FL, it’s a two-man race between McCain and Romney - a scenario that benefits Romney in that it sets up the match-up he wants (Mitt as the “guy to the right” vs. “other guy”). It will coalesce all of the GOP pundits - who hate McCain - behind Mitt as the only alternative.
If Rudy wins FL, all the Rudophiles get re-energized and continue deluding themselves that we’ll all fall in line behind Rudy911. Then both McCain and Romney get hurt because Rudy looks like the GOP pundit guy to back to beat McCain, while McCain loses a big state and his mojo to a guy competing for the same voters. Then the mess continues, and the establishment keeps trying to shove Rudy down our throats despite our loud objections.
Best scenario for Mitt: win FL, become alternative to McCain as Rudy’s campaign gets buried.
Best scenario for McCain: Rudy loses FL, Mitt continues to struggle to get mojo as big-states align behind McCain.
Best scenario for Rudy: Obama and Hillary drop out, he wins nod over Edwards to face GOP candidate in November.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.