"I'd hit it."
Posted on 12/20/2007 6:27:00 PM PST by NormsRevenge
LOS ANGELES (Map, News) - Mars could be in for an asteroid hit.
A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a 1 in 75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on Jan. 30, scientists said Thursday.
"These odds are extremely unusual. We frequently work with really long odds when we track ... threatening asteroids," said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to the Tunguska object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb that wiped out 60 million trees.
Scientists tracking the asteroid, which is halfway to Mars, initially put the odds of impact at 1 in 350 and increased the chances this week after analyzing the data. Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month after getting new observations of the asteroid's orbit, Chesley said.
"We know that it's going to fly by Mars and most likely going to miss, but there's a possibility of an impact," he said.
If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 8 miles a second, a collision would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.
In 2004, fragments of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 smacked into Jupiter, creating a series of overlapping fireballs in space. Astronomers have yet to witness an asteroid impact with another planet.
"Unlike an Earth impact, we're not afraid, but we're excited," Chesley said.
Have you heard any more about the exploration of that small lake that is supposed to have been the impact site?
The rover could be on the other side of the planet at the time of impact.
No.. I know what you’re referring to tho,, we had a few threads on that angle.
Crater Could Solve 1908 Tunguska Meteor Mystery ^
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1857424/posts
Posted by raygun
On News/Activism ^ 06/27/2007 6:16:57 PM PDT · 34 replies · 1,403+ views
Space.com ^ | 06:27 26 June 2007 ET | By Dave Mosher - Staff Writer
In late June of 1908, a fireball exploded above the remote Russian forests of Tunguska, Siberia, flattening more than 800 square miles of trees. Researchers think a meteor was responsible for the devastation, but neither its fragments nor any impact craters have been discovered. Astronomers have been left to guess whether the object was an asteroid or a comet, and figuring out what it was would allow better modeling of potential future calamities. Italian researchers now think they’ve found a smoking gun: The 164-foot-deep Lake Cheko, located just 5 miles northwest of the epicenter of destruction. “When we looked at...
Crater From 1908 Russian Space Impact Found, Team Says (Tunguska) ^
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925978/posts
Posted by blam
On News/Activism ^ 11/14/2007 8:31:07 PM PST · 63 replies
National Geographic ^ | 11-7-2007 | Maria Cristina Valsecchi
Crater From 1908 Russian Space Impact Found, Team Says Maria Cristina Valsecchi in Rome, Italy for National Geographic NewsNovember 7, 2007 Almost a century after a mysterious explosion in Russia flattened a huge swath of Siberian forest, scientists have found what they believe is a crater made by the cosmic object that made the blast. The crater was discovered under a lake near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in western Siberia, where the cataclysm, known as the Tunguska event, took place (see map). On June 30, 1908, a ball of fire exploded about 6 miles (10 kilometers) above the ground in...
A possible impact crater for the 1908 Tunguska Event ^
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1854726/posts
Posted by Mike Darancette
On News/Activism ^ 06/22/2007 11:46:00 AM PDT · 25 replies · 2,577+ views
Terra Nova ^ | 7/01/2007 | Terra Nova
The so-called ‘Tunguska Event’ refers to a major explosion that occurred on 30 June 1908 in the Tunguska region of Siberia, causing the destruction of over 2000 km2 of taiga, globally detected pressure and seismic waves, and bright luminescence in the night skies of Europe and Central Asia, combined with other unusual phenomena. The ‘Tunguska Event’ may be related to the impact with the Earth of a cosmic body that exploded about 5–10 km above ground, releasing in the atmosphere 10–15 Mton of energy. Fragments of the impacting body have never been found, and its nature (comet or asteroid) is...
SpaceDaily - Dec 18 7:44 PMby Staff Writers Albuquerque NM (SPX) Dec 19, 2007 The stunning amount of forest devastation at Tunguska a century ago in Siberia may have been caused by an asteroid only a fraction as large as previously published estimates, Sandia National Laboratories supercomputer simulations suggest.
Just guessing, but here’s how I’d decipher that comment:
You’ve heard of confidence intervals in elementary statistics? Well, when we’re dealing with two or more dimensions, we speak of confidence ellipses or ellipsoids, not intervals.
So, with the data now available they are able to calculate a confidence ellipse, or window, through which the asteroid is likely to pass when it flies by Mars. About 1/75th of that ellipse intersects Mars’ surface and thus, with the data now available at least, it looks like there is a one in 75 chance of it impacting the surface.
But like I said, that’s a totally stat-centric guess. I’m not an astronomer and could be way off base!
It would seem that the cloud of tektites formed by the impact would be a threat to any camera, orbital or ground.
Workers investigating the Chicxulub event on earth report finding layers of decomposed glass beads at widely scattered sites that were presumably formed by the impact. Some workers think that the molten beads might have ignited vast forest fires around the world, as well as propagating an intense heat wave from the impact zone. The density of the Chicxulub-correlated bead layers would suggest a threat to any Mars orbiters if the object were to strike Mars, and possibly to the ground rover as well.
Disclaimer: the correlation of the glass-bead layers to the Chicxulub event is being disputed vigorously by some workers.
I thought the same thing. Also in that paragraph...
“Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month “
If you expect the odds to diminish, didn’t you just diminish them? That’s expecting the expectation to change I think.
This is very odd. It must be on the side away from the trajectory so even if the asteroid hits the debris would not rise up and cover the whole planet but would quickly fall.
Ping!
Catastrophism Ping.
The scientists at Mt. Palomar in So.Cal. discovered this. I’ve been there. It’s near Dodger Stadium and the LAPD training area.
The information must have been sent to Pasadena, which is not very far away.
It is very interesting.
If you would like to see the largest crater that has hit in the U.S.. read the article I just brought in. It’s about three hours from here. Read a little farther, and you will see the 1 in 75 chance of a meteor hitting Mars on January 30th.
http://www.meteorcrater.com/index.php
Also on the show we watched, the U.S. sent up a permanent satellite around Mars, but the cool catch is that the Japanese had a small Rover the size of a book to set down on an asteroid near Mars.
Awesome!
Thank you for pinging me, Cyber!
"I'd hit it."
BUSH’S FAULT!!! Failed environmental policies!
am I first :D
Nobody has pointed out that if this hits Mars, it will be an impact, not n air burst. The Mars atmosphere is equivalent to the Earths atmosphere at 100,000 feet (7 millibars).
With that scant an atmosphere, it is not going to burn up before impact.
I am betting that NASA knows it will impact Mars, but do not want to make it a sure thing until they can refine the figures.
......Bob
It would be one hell of an event to witness for that fact alone..
Especially in the 24x7 age ..
That’s gonna leave a good divet, for sure.. lots of stuff scattered all over the place. we’d need an army of rovers to check it all out,, and manned missions a heckuva lot sooner than we’re gearing toward now.
Man’s future is in space, born of star dust , we’re here for now and hardy enough.. but who knows when it’s our turns to get thumped?
Did you see where Nasa is looking for something to do with the shuttles after 2010?
One of the suggestions was a life boat for the ISS.
I would hate to see them up on a pole at the entrance of Canaveral.
....Bob
Perhaps if there is any collision at all, it means that the asteroid has come under the influence of Mar’s gravity. That being the case, it will be attracted toward the center of the planet. In other words, glancing blows not possible? Bull’s eye or nothing?
Or do they know what side the rover is on and know that the other side will be facing the asteroid at moment of impact?
After all, we can be pretty sure which way the earth will be facing at midnight, local time, a hundred years out- i.e. away from the sun.
I saw that recently there was a little buzz about trying to extend their use beyond 2010, we’ll see, the newer shuttles could probably keep going for a while.
It’s too bad we have dropped the ball in some areas space-wise, some of the lower cost missions have been pretty interesting probes and all, but man should be able to jump around a bit too.. it ain’t cheap but what is these days, plus their are some promising new propulsion methods in development.. ions and all,,
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