Romney Surges in S.C., Florida

Dry Fly Politics ^ | 10/23/07 | Steve

[Reaganesque]

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2007...8:57 am

Romney Surges in S.C., Florida

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In vastly underreported election news, recent polls are showing a Romney surge in both South Carolina and Florida. Of course no one knows this because no one has mentioned it. We would all think that Romney was flopping around like a fish out of water in the Southern states according to some recent posts that have been written about each state. Of course, logic would tell us that Romney should not be doing well in either of these states: He is Mormon, Slick, and a NorEaster. Nevertheless, he is polling well and will likely be right in the thick of the races come January. Here are the recent polls:

South Carolina

Oct 02, Insider Advantage Poll: Thompson 21%, Romney and Giuliani 16%

Sep 26-29, ARG Poll: Romney 26%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 10%

Sep 26-27, Rasmussen: Thompson 24%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 15%

Additionally, the Romney campaign performed an internal poll, here are the results:

Romney Internal Poll: Thompson: 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%

So, in South Carolina Romney is right in the thick of the fight. It appears that the recent condemnation of Giuliani by Christian Right leaders is having a detrimental effect and that the advertising that Romney has been airing over the last month is causing some movement. However, it should be noted that the same article that reported the Romney internal poll caveats the results by saying that this was before the Bob Jones endorsement. A separat poll says that 27% of South Carolinans are more likely to support Romney due to this, but 32% are less likely. It will be interesting to see what effect the evangelical endorsements will have.

In Florida, Romney also continues to surge, and Florida is arguably more important a victory for any of the candidates. Here are the recent polls:

Oct 1-8, Quinnipiac: Giuliani: 27%, Thompson 19%, Romney 17%

Oct. 2, Insider Advantage: Giuliani 29%, Thompson 19%, Romney 16%

Granted, these polls are nothing to get thrilled over as Giuliani has a sizeable lead. However, all previous polling had Romney hovering between 7% and 10% in Florida. So a 6-7 point jump in a month is significant and he is really the only one gaining steam in these states, whereas Giuliani and Thompson are plateauing.

It should also be mentioned that all the hubub about Huckabee or Thompson surging against Romney in Iowa should be somewhat muted by the most recent Iowa poll that gave Romney an impressive 14 point lead:

Oct 10-14, Strategic Vision Poll: Romney-27, Giuliani-13, Huckabee-12, Thompson-10.

I wonder if this will get the coverage that the poll placing Huckabee within 6 points will get. I doubt it.

All in all, while Romney has stalled in some places, so have all the candidates. The race is a real crap shoot, there is far from a difinitive front runner. However, it still looks to be a Giuliani-Romney finale.

[TheLion]

You are probably mostly alone. Romney is impressive period!

[CheyennePress]

>>If they were ministers in the Church of IZOD, it would probably be of vital interest to Americans to find out exactly what in the heck IZOD beliefs entail. To do otherwise is a practice in absolute stupidity.....<<<

You say that, but judging from my experience with Mormons, I tend to find that:

1) they tend to be friendlier than your average bear

2) they tend to be over-achievers. You look at enrollments in med school and law school, and Mormons basically kick the crap out of everyone but Jews. Only they don’t say “crap.”

3) they tend to have large families and be extremely family-oriented. Utah has the highest per capita under 25 population in the country.

4) When Mormons have a Temple marriage, divorce rates range between 6-13%, far below the national average.

5) Utah is perhaps the single most consistent Republican state in the nation. Wyoming is the only one giving it a run for its money.

I don’t get the disgust with Mormons at all. They tend to walk-the-walk far better than most.

[CheyennePress]

I’m a firm Romney supporter, but frankly, I think it’s about time all of the Republicans kicked Reagan out of the debates.

Romney absolutely sounds his best when he is speaking about what he believes and about his own ideas. He’s the only candidate I’ve seen give a concise, practical, and 100% on the nose run-down of why we need tort reform. He’s done the same with the need for a cut in corporate taxation.

Romney needs to bring up his own successes and lay off the Reagan schpiel. It blanches his own incitefulness.

And that’s not unique to him, either, but it’s particulary true of him since many of his policies align with Reagan’s. It’s just best he sold them on his own, finessed them on his own, and stood by them without the presense of a man long gone (but not forgotten).

[mission9]

The impact of LDS doctrine in the area of public policy in modern American is negligible, no more than Catholicism or Islam.

Now this one was a funny comment. Oh, no, Islam hasn’t had any more than a...how did you say that?...Oh, yeah, “neglible” effect upon public policies as it pertains to terrorism; as it pertains to foreign policy; as it pertains to... :)

So you are proposing a law against Mormon terrorism, that special kind of Mormon terrorism that exceeds the crimes of Islamofacism, - wholesome white men with high office ambitions.

[pepsi_junkie]

Policy. We have issues now that you can't look back to the 1980s and say "let's just do that". Terrorism is one. Immigration is one. From what I read, Romney has concrete proposals that he raises on the stump but since I live in a state that doesn't matter for early primaries I'll never see him live. And in the debates he tries to just imply that he's upbeat and Reaganesque rather than going into the specifics of anything so I dont get anything there.

In the first debate I think he did some of that and I was really impressed, but in subsequent ones he seemed to be less direct about things. Anyway, that's my opinion.

[Colofornian]

So you are proposing a law against Mormon terrorism, that special kind of Mormon terrorism that exceeds the crimes of Islamofacism, - wholesome white men with high office ambitions.

Try getting something straight. You, my friend, are the one who raised the LDS faith as comparable of an impact public policy-wise to Islam, not me. (So are you consuming your own words now?)

[1Old Pro]

When romney wins NH and Iowa he’ll have the big MO, enough to beat tootie rooty

[mission9]

I feel like a guy that got pushed a mud puddle and laughed at because he is dirty.

I said insignificant, meaning not comparable, as in less comparable.

Since comparisons and illustrations are wasted on you, let me be clear, history shows that there is nothing about the LDS church today that is worthy of any fears or criticism about what an LDS value perspective might do to governance, legislation, or the courts.

You might have some valid theological arguments, I don’t know, I am not a priest or lay leader, nor do I play one on TV. When you get your infomercial produced, I might even watch it on SkyAngel.

Now be a good evangelist and open a Religious thread and see how many angels you can get to dance on the head of a pin. (Saint Thomas Aquinas) Quit spamming the rest of us with irrelevancies.

[Grig]

“I won’t vote for a self-professing Mormon for POTUS”

Are you saying that no self-professing Mormon could ever be a good POTUS, or that no matter how good of a POTUS a self-professing Mormon would be, you still wouldn’t vote for them?

I just want to be clear what kind of bigotry we are talking about here.

[Reaganesque]

...on the verge of violating the posting guidelines.

See post #13. That was one of Colofornian's. It went way over the line. And it's not the first of his/her posts to be pulled either, nor will it be the last.

FYI, Colofornian, I reported you.

[curiosity]

Mormons definitely don't believe in #6 anymore.

Not sure if they believe the others, but why do you care? What possible relevance do those other beliefs have to the office of the president?

Romney is running for president, not pastor.

[N3WBI3]

The Mitt Machine here ignores what he said because while pondering a run for president he decided to change his positions on Abortion, and Gun Control..

I wont vote for Rudy because of his social position but at least I trust and respect him for taking difficult positions.

[N3WBI3]

"he is saying the right things in terms of social policy."

You should see what he was saying when running for office in a liberal state... "Im not an NRA person" and "I will protect a womans right to choose"

[N3WBI3]

Yea but as bubba proved it has little to do with their real desirability to be president. Heck if its a beauty contest the Breck girl has this thing in the bag..

[colorcountry]

Oh we are talking MAJOR bigotry here! :O

Run, hide....for I am the terrible 666 who refuses to vote for someone who is still deluded enough to believe the tall tales of a sex-driven, con-man, full of power-lust, who leads many millions of people away from Christianity.

Oh yes, Canadian....I am the evil one who doubts the sincerity of Mormons who believe in their own valiance in the pre-existence, and their own ability to add to the atonement of Christ to earn their salvation by abstaining from the evil, satanic and horrible substance....coffee. And bow to the pressures of the richest non-profit organization in the USA. An organization built on a pyramid scheme and run from the grand and spacious building in Salt Lake City, figure-headed by a 97 year-old, cancer-stricken PR man, who never actually has the nerve to publicly state what his true beliefs are (it is more of a couplet). the organization has its greedy hands stuffed deeply in the pockets of money venture capitalists (like Mitt) and owns extensive well-hidden stocks in major companies, land holdings, insurance throughout the US and the world delving deeply into almost every aspect of each citizen's daily lives without ever disclosing publicly the extent of their power or their wealth. They hide behind tax-exempt status, this organization, while legitimate churches openly disclose their holdings wealth and power. The LDS organization likes to dwell in darkness, obfuscate truth, twist and pander through expensive Public Relations campaigns with code names like “Truth Restored.” (as if the rest of us are mired in untruth...if that in etself is not revolting enough!

Yes, only an open mined and fair individual could truly judge such a person worthy of the highest office in this the greatest country (yeah, the USA...NOT Canader).

Bigot indeed!

[colorcountry]

You are wrong curiosity. Mormons DO believe that because of an unwillingness to side with the plan Jesus laid out in the pre-existence, they were indeed marked with the curse of Cain.

You are free to vote for Mitt. I will not.

[restornu]

Do you want bananas or coconuts today’s!:)

[KC_Conspirator]

Thats a good point. The Anti-Rudy crowd is giving him a pass, but thats what FR has come to today. You noticed your replies they jump into why they hate Rudy so much, but not many answer your real question - why does Romney get a pass?

I have said that I have some serious issues with Romney; mainly how he let marraige get assaulted and warped while he was governor of his state. And to me, he seems like a flip flopper on a alot of issues and I am not really sold or satisfied. To me championing as a conservative social issues leader just seems like alot of hot air.

[Grig]

I appreciate you destroying your own credibility there with your paranoid kook ranting, but I would rather have an answer to the question I asked:

Are you saying that
A) no self-professing Mormon could ever be a good POTUS,
or
B) that no matter how good of a POTUS a self-professing Mormon would be, you still wouldn’t vote for them

Your reply only needs to have on letter in it, A or B. Think you can manage that?

[colorcountry]

Oh yes, I am a paranoid kook. YOU are the sane one LOL.

Oh dear, now I AM confused!!! Can’t I say BOTH A and B?? ROTFLMHO

You self-righteous, name-calling Mormons make me laugh. You take yourselves sooooo seriously. Don’t you realize that the rest of the world laughs at you? Honestly?

Why do you think you can’t get more than 1 or 2% of ANYbody to join your “one and only” true Church? One day your organization may have a revelation and go mainstream, maybe then I will vote for one.....I’m praying.