Romney Surges in S.C., Florida

Dry Fly Politics ^ | 10/23/07 | Steve

[Reaganesque]

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2007...8:57 am

Romney Surges in S.C., Florida

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In vastly underreported election news, recent polls are showing a Romney surge in both South Carolina and Florida. Of course no one knows this because no one has mentioned it. We would all think that Romney was flopping around like a fish out of water in the Southern states according to some recent posts that have been written about each state. Of course, logic would tell us that Romney should not be doing well in either of these states: He is Mormon, Slick, and a NorEaster. Nevertheless, he is polling well and will likely be right in the thick of the races come January. Here are the recent polls:

South Carolina

Oct 02, Insider Advantage Poll: Thompson 21%, Romney and Giuliani 16%

Sep 26-29, ARG Poll: Romney 26%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 10%

Sep 26-27, Rasmussen: Thompson 24%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 15%

Additionally, the Romney campaign performed an internal poll, here are the results:

Romney Internal Poll: Thompson: 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%

So, in South Carolina Romney is right in the thick of the fight. It appears that the recent condemnation of Giuliani by Christian Right leaders is having a detrimental effect and that the advertising that Romney has been airing over the last month is causing some movement. However, it should be noted that the same article that reported the Romney internal poll caveats the results by saying that this was before the Bob Jones endorsement. A separat poll says that 27% of South Carolinans are more likely to support Romney due to this, but 32% are less likely. It will be interesting to see what effect the evangelical endorsements will have.

In Florida, Romney also continues to surge, and Florida is arguably more important a victory for any of the candidates. Here are the recent polls:

Oct 1-8, Quinnipiac: Giuliani: 27%, Thompson 19%, Romney 17%

Oct. 2, Insider Advantage: Giuliani 29%, Thompson 19%, Romney 16%

Granted, these polls are nothing to get thrilled over as Giuliani has a sizeable lead. However, all previous polling had Romney hovering between 7% and 10% in Florida. So a 6-7 point jump in a month is significant and he is really the only one gaining steam in these states, whereas Giuliani and Thompson are plateauing.

It should also be mentioned that all the hubub about Huckabee or Thompson surging against Romney in Iowa should be somewhat muted by the most recent Iowa poll that gave Romney an impressive 14 point lead:

Oct 10-14, Strategic Vision Poll: Romney-27, Giuliani-13, Huckabee-12, Thompson-10.

I wonder if this will get the coverage that the poll placing Huckabee within 6 points will get. I doubt it.

All in all, while Romney has stalled in some places, so have all the candidates. The race is a real crap shoot, there is far from a difinitive front runner. However, it still looks to be a Giuliani-Romney finale.

[Reaganesque]

More analysis. Overall, a good, balanced one. The endorsements from prominent Evangelicals seems to have helped some. We can only wait and see if this trend continues but, it is hopeful. In the meantime, Mitt just keeps following the game plan, playing the game on his terms and on his schedule. It's fascinating to watch.

[Reaganesque]

Mitt Ping!

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

[Brilliant]

It seems like the religious right is slowly warming up to Romney. Personally, I think they made a big mistake by waiting as long as they did to make that shift. It may be too late. I think Giuliani is close to having it wrapped up.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I may end up voting for Romney in the primary...Thompson has gotten my $$ so far, but Mitt is intriguing.

[Reaganesque]

Well, anything’s possible but, I doubt it. My impression of Giuliani’s support is that it is soft. I have seen polling that says otherwise but I doubt that very much. Giuliani’s lead, to this point, is primarily due to his name recognition and the leadership he showed on 9/11. Plus the fact that in the debates, he’s been feisty and likable. That said, as has been seen in the early primary states, as people get to know Mitt Romney, they tend to support him. Romney’s numbers have been rising slowly but surely while Mr. Giuliani’s have been static for the most part. We’ll see. But I do think that Romney is well positioned to jump past Mr. Giuliani if he wins in NH and IA.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

You know, I hear a lot of talk about Rudy’s values, but it seems as though Romney is getting a pass on where he stood when running for Senator against Ted Kennedy and during his campaign for Governor. The only truth talk about him seems to be coming from John Mc Cain. Why aren’t the anti Rudy “Freepers” just as hot about him?

[Tulane]

Romney has my support currently. I couldn’t care less that he is Mormon. I like what he did in business, I think his poilicies would be great for the economy and he is saying the right things in terms of social policy. I realize he made comprimises as a governor of the most socially liberal state in the country, but I give him a pass on that. Reagan did the same thing when he was governor of California.

If Mitt can get the support of evangelicals, he will beat Clinton. Period.

[teddyballgame]

The surge is working! Go Mitt, Go!

[tabsternager]

Personally I think Thompson would be another Bob Dole, but Romney has much more potential to pick up swing voters/independents.

Despite what some people say to the contrary, appearance has a big impact when it comes to presidential candidates.

[curiosity]

Well, anything’s possible but, I doubt it. My impression of Giuliani’s support is that it is soft.

I think that's true nationwide, but certainly not in Florida. His support there is pretty strong, and it's there because there are a lot of ex-New Yorkers living in Florida who appreciate the job he did as mayor. These people are conservative on fiscal and law-and-order type issues, but don't care so much about the moral issues, so they don't really care about his stance on abortion, gay rights, his divorces, and the like.

[teddyballgame]

Not only that - Gulliani’s strong performance after 9/11 bolsters his image on the overriding issue of the day, national security. That alone trumps everything else which is why he also leading in most Southern states.

[curiosity]

Not only that - Gulliani’s strong performance after 9/11 bolsters his image on the overriding issue of the day, national security.

You know, that's something I don't really get. Frankly, I don't see what Guilliani's performance post 9-11 has to do with national security. He really didn't do much of anything. Yes, he gave some good speaches calming the people down, and he maintained order in the city. Kudos to him for that. But I don't see that as some great accomplishment; just something that should be expected of any half decent mayor. Nor do I see what that has to do with national security.

His overall record as mayor shows he is a competent executive who can get things done. His taking on the mob, both as prosecutor and then as mayor, shows courage and determination. The Gambino and Genovese families have a price on his head because he ruined their rackets. I can certainly see how these accomplishments suggest he will be strong on national security. But the post 9-11 stuff, I really don't get.

[Colofornian]

Thompson has gotten my $$ so far, but Mitt is intriguing.

Well, intriguing might be a good word. But it's intriguing along the lines of being a young guy who discovers a certain girl appears to like you. In fact, you've even heard that she used to be a liberal but has apparently done an aboutface, and you've heard she's done this just to attract you (why, how flattering).

Then you discover she's diehard LDS. And you realize that LDS believe that a woman needs a worthy Mormon husband to get to the highest level of heaven--the celestial kingdom. And since that's not "you," you realize either (a) you become a convert to advancing what she believes in your life; or (b) you realize this relationship would never go anywhere long term, so you remain disinterested.

So, the choice is up to Republicans. Do they want to advance what Mitt believes? Or will they realize this relationship won't really go anywhere in the long-term?

[Liz]

Do we want to advance what Mormon Mitt believes?

THE CASE AGAINST GIULIANI Giuliani worships at the Church of Whatever Works For me.

Conservatives are disgusted with abortion worshipper Giuliani---a gun-grabbing RINO who is working assiduously to religiously cleanse the Repub party. Rooty and his Rooters are obsessed with dumping so/cons off the party lifeboat.

A religiously-cleansed America, erased of The Founder's principles, would perforce adhere to Rooty's irrational, valueless mentality, one that has no relevance to deep American traditions.

Rooty and his Tooters offend the sensibilities of patriotic religious Americans nurtured by a democracy built on freedom of religion. Under Giuliani, people of religion would be subjugated to second-class citizenship.

The contrast between Giuliani and Mitt Romney is staggering. Romney vigorously defends his faith. In an increasingly secular society, it is heartening that a candidate not only espouses a faith but actually defends his faith to voters.

We may not all agree with Romney's belief system, but the fact that a US president recognizes the importance if religion is a very big plus.

Or would you rather have Rooty's irrational, religiously cleansed mindset in our White House?

[Liz]

Mitt had better go on high alert---Florida is ripe for voter fraud.

HOW TO STEAL AN ELECTION

EXCERPT Operation Snowbird; Lawyer urges snowbirds to cast their votes in Florida

Palm Beach Post | 9-19-2004 | Mary McLachlin
FR Posted on 09/20/2004 1:39:42 PM PDT by Chicos_Bail_Bonds BOCA RATON—----Lawrence Caplan learned an important political lesson: You can live in one state and vote in another. Caplan, a tax and corporate lawyer, has turned that lesson into Operation: Snowbird, an Internet tool designed to make a difference in the election of 2004 — if Democratic voters in New York and New Jersey respond to it. All they have to do, according to Caplan's Web site, www.operationsnowbird.com, is switch their registrations to Florida, where their votes are more likely to be needed..... than in the deep "blue" states up north. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/news/epaper/2004/09/19/m1a_snowbirdvotes_0919.html

===========================================

Better watch those absentee ballots for Rooty delivered from his supporters in Israel.

GIULIANI BANDWAGON BRANCHES OUT TO ISRAEL
By MAGGIE HABERMAN, NY Post, April 21, 2007

EXCERPT A group of Israelis has launched a grass-roots effort to get people living in the Jewish state who are eligible to vote in the United States to line up behind Rudy Giuliani, it was reported yesterday.

The group, Giuliani Supporters in Israel, was launched by Mordechai Twersky, a onetime candidate for state Assembly in The Bronx in the early 1990s, according the Jerusalem Post. Twersky has established a Web site, giulianisupportersinisrael.org, with background information including Giuliani's famed eviction of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat from a Lincoln Center concert in 1995. "I did this as a private personal initiative, as a proud American and Israeli citizen, and I am confident that it will catch on," Twersky told the paper.

He said the campaign hadn't set up his group, but that he's been in contact with Team Giuliani since he got started. Giuliani has historically been popular with Jewish voters, and took a hard pro-Israel line when he was in office. Giuliani's campaign didn't return The Post's calls for comment.

In some past elections, planeloads of Israelis with American citizenship have flown to the United States to vote.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/04212007/news/nationalnews/giuliani_bandwagon_branches_out_to_israel_nationalnews_maggie_haberman.htm

[Colofornian]

Or would you rather have Rooty's irrational, religiously cleansed mindset in our White House?

Liz, I deeply appreciate some of your posts in other threads...they've been quite enlightening on Rudy (so keep it up). But on this, you fall into the same premature trap others have set up.

I mean it may one day come down to Rudy vs. Hillary, but others who keep boiling it down to this are speaking prematurely. Well, you're doing the same thing in boiling it down to only Rudy vs. Mitt.

Romney vigorously defends his faith. In an increasingly secular society, it is heartening that a candidate not only espouses a faith but actually defends his faith to voters. We may not all agree with Romney's belief system, but the fact that a US president recognizes the importance if religion is a very big plus.

Well, read my post #14. It addresses this. You're going along the same lines Medved was talking about yesterday and where the Bob Jones University rep & others keep going. ("Yeah, sure we have theological disagreements but...") Well, I'm not only addressing mere "disagreements" (as if those "disagreements" weren't of eternal import to begin with).

Don't you understand that "Romney's belief system" openly attacks the base of the Republican party as being outright apostates of the faith? I mean only the Muslims are comparable--as they reference us as "infidels."

You know, it's not flattering for the Muslims to call us "infidels," and it's not flattering for Mormons to call us "apostates" whose leaders are "corrupt" and "every single creed" is an "abomination before God."

(Yeah, Evangelicals think LDS in general are "heretics," but we don't say EVERY SINGLE CREED LDS believe is an "abomination before God,"; nor do we label their leaders as "corrupt"; and, as folks like ColorCountry shows, it's possible for LDS to be saved right where they are--for God to reach into the LDS church and establish a true relationship with them)

...it is heartening that a candidate not only espouses a faith but actually defends his faith to voters.

Listen, if I went into my backyard, got down & worshipped my tulips, and then went and filled out the paperwork for a POTUS run, I don't think you would conclude about me: "It's heartening that a candidate like C not only espouses a faith (in tulips) but actually defends his faith to voters." (Faith is meaningless apart from the object of that faith. And those who put their faith in what they say is part of the created order, like LDS, who believe that Heavenly Father and Jesus Christ were both only created beings, versus those who put their faith in the eternal, everlasting, no-beginning Creator is a wide gap).

[colorcountry]

Or would you rather have Rooty's irrational, religiously cleansed mindset in our White House?

No, I would rather have Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee or Tom Tancredo.

You Mormon-supporters make it sound like it's a Rudy Romney race and we must decide between the lesser of two evils. Geeze wouldn't it be nice if Republicans actually voted their conscience and sent a fine man to the Presidential Elections that actually represented out beliefs and not some pandering, slick, oily, abortion-protecting, gun-grabbing, Statist RINO??

What is WRONG with you people?

[colorcountry]

Sorry, Liz,

My reply was a bit “over the top.” I hadn’t actually read the exchange between you and Colofornian. But I am frustrated by the attitude that we must select between Rudy and Romney. They are BOTH unacceptable. I will not vote for either man.

I’m praying that there are many informed and impassioned Republicans that actually value conservatism and will fight for the Grand Old Party. If not, the GOP is destined to the follow the history of the Whigs.

[Liz]

Title of the thread is: “Romney Surges in S.C., Florida”..........when Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee or Tom Tancredo surge, FR posts will center on them.