Posted on 10/19/2007 7:02:46 PM PDT by Josh Painter
The perception that Rudy Giuliani is the most electable Republican may be slipping a bit.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 66% of Republicans believe that Giuliani at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That’s down from 72% a month ago.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republican voters now say that Fred Thompson is at least somewhat likely to win in nominated. That’s up from 57% last month.
The gap between Giuliani and Thompson virtually disappears at a higher level of confidence—23% of Republican voters say that Giuliani is Very Likely to win if nominated while 22% say the same about Thompson.
Being seen as the most electable candidate is important for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters see him as politically moderate or liberal. Thompson is seen as the most conservative candidate in the field.
As a whole, however, Republican voters are a lot less confident of victory than Democrats. Hillary Clinton is seen by those in her party as the most electable Democrat.
John McCain, struggling in the national polls, does fairly well in the electability category. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans say he is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. That includes 16% who believe he would be Very Likely to win.
Forty-seven percent (47%) say Mitt Romney is at least Somewhat Likely to emerge victorious if nominated. That’s down from 55% a month ago. Ten percent (10%) think Romney would be Very Likely to win, down from 15% in September.
Mike Huckabee is gaining ground both in Iowa and in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, just 35% think he is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Only 10% see a Huckabee victory as Very Likely...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I think a lot of people get their hopes up, find excuses for every fault, ignore every warning, because they want something to be true. Fred’s gotten a free ride so far. I was very interested back in May, but so far I couldn’t be more unimpressed. And after 6 months, I’ve pretty much formulated an opinion on it. Now, Fred’s welcome to prove me wrong, but as for me, the burden’s on him, as it should be for us all.
Thompson/Hunter ‘08
But, the problem is, the frontrunners are unacceptable, so theyve already been rejected. In comes Fred by default.
The fact is that Rudy is only getting less than a third of Reps. Even if he maintains that percentage thru the primaries, he is the most liberal candidate in the field. I don’t think he can win enough votes in the primaries to win the nomination outright. We could very well see a brokered convention with the more conservative candidates coming together to select a nominee other than Rudy.
We'll have to see about Fred. I myself don't think he will do much in the primaries, and that he'll be out before 2/5/08 - but that's why they play the games. Maybe there really are Thompson voters out there - but I wouldn't bet on it.
Well at least you don’t seem to like any of them, so I say that’s a fair deal.
I think Fred will surprise, his low key style has been a winner in the past.
I'll just remind you that winning the primaries ain't what it's about. It's about winning a general election. Beyond that, it's about governing the most powerful nation on earth, and that takes more skill than just posting a blog.
I can see clearly that the real problem is that there are no good candidates (except maybe Hunter, but for some strange reason most ppl here don't want to support him.) Me? I don't support any of them. This is their chance to let me get to know them. Until I have to vote, I'm open.
Turns out a joke made a while back by Ann Coulter is true. I didn't even get the joke at the time. She said Fred was our Obama. She's right.
Bob Dole is still available.
It’s true, I’m not crazy about any of them. And although I’ve obviously started to form a pretty strong opinion about Fred, he still can convince me. Romney impressed me early on, like over a year ago, when I heard him on the radio. Smart, knowledgable, experienced. But he’s definitely pretty slick. Then again, maybe that’s good for the job. Rudy is someone I don’t trust with all that power. I think he’s corrupt, and mostly hype. McCain’s a non-starter. Hunter seems like a guy with good character, the right positions, but if freepers are writing him off, it’s not worth the time to worry about him. That’s why Fred’s doing well. The field sucks. And when I say doing well, that’s just polls.
Hillary Clinton, I think, is incapable of winning the presidency
Actually, you will help get Hillary elected. I'm sure she is counting on your attitude to help.
You're delusional. If you look at every national poll, the top tier has Rooty leading the pack, Fred`s in second, followed by Romney and McCain, in that order.
Nonsense. For starters, most grassroots conservatives are registered Republicans. By the time Fred had made noise about running, April-May time frame, liberal and moderate party loyalists had already chosen to get behind Giuliani. Some picked Romney. The hardcore McCainiacs stood by their man.
Grassroots conservatives were split and waiting for a real credentialed conservative to step forward. So far, Fred`s been that conservative. As the second tier candidates drop out, we'll see which candidate their support migrates too.
IMO, its all gonna boil down to Rooty or Fred. We know what happens if Rooty wins. The GOP is through. My monies on Fred.
So if he’s second in a poll, that means what? Nothing.
In this crowded GOP field, led by a liberal, gun grabbing abortionist, it means everything. Fred`s within striking distance. Conservative support is turning towards Fred.
So, who do you like? Rooty, Romney, Johnny Mac?
I'll just remind you that winning the primaries ain't what it's about.
At this stage of the game that's precisely what it's all about.
It's about winning a general election.
Not at this point it isn't.
Beyond that, it's about governing the most powerful nation on earth, and that takes more skill than just posting a blog.
How insightful Huck. Gee thanks.
I can see clearly that the real problem is that there are no good candidates (except maybe Hunter, but for some strange reason most ppl here don't want to support him.)
First of all, there are several good candidates, but your follow-up is strange to say the least. I've seen a lot of people here voice support for him here. And I have as well.
Me? I don't support any of them.
Well sage, by this point you should have been able to narrow it down rather well. Sorry you're having such a difficult time of it.
This is their chance to let me get to know them.
Well, good luck with that. If you don't pretty well know them by now, I don't hold out a lot of hope for you.
Until I have to vote, I'm open.
There are two people who interest me right now. Other than them, I'm not open.
Turns out a joke made a while back by Ann Coulter is true.
Oh this outa be good.
I didn't even get the joke at the time.
That doesn't surprise me.
She said Fred was our Obama. She's right.
LOL, you really are a shallow person aren't you. You think Fred Thomspon is equal to Barak Obama. Well sports fans, there you have it.
Ann Coulter equated Fred with Barack Obama! Wow. Seems like Coulter is becomning a damaging influence to conservatism. Sorta like the female Pat Buchanan, with a mean streak.
I’d like a little more context before I go after Ann on this. This guy isn’t exactly what I consider a reliable source if you catch my drift. For the most part, I like Ann. If she’s left the reservation on this one, that would be unfortunate. She still grates the left something fierce, and I’d prefer her to Lanny Davis any day. Before we start to eat our own, that’s one guage I’d like to consider. She’s the type of person I want to respond to Davis.
I don’t dismiss your comments completely. Ann needs to think before she (mis) fires.
Most candidates 'tack to the middle' after being nominated by their Parties--but Rudy CANNOT do that!!!
Hillary will move to the 'center' (or at least try....lol) in an attempt to broaden her appeal. The Republican candidate usually moves somewhat to the left (more to the center) to widen his appeal--because the base is usually guaranteed. Rudy cannot do that.
Since Rudy is already 'to the left of center',,,and MORE IMPORTANTLY DOES NOT HAVE THE BASE SECURED (and a liberal like him never will),,,,he cannot 'tack in either direction'---without risking losing whatever support he has left. If he EVEN TRIES to move any further to the 'left' than he already is--he risks losing more of whatever support he has left in the base.
Rudy would be a 'train wreck' for the Republican Party up and down the ticket.
Right here on this forum a pole was conducted to see what Chance Rudy would have with Conservatives. 47% of forum members stated they would vote third party, write in or stay home if he were the nominee.
45.4% of memebers and outside participants stated they’d do one of the three rather than vote for Rudy.
Rudy is toast. If he wins the nomination, the party is toast.
Many of us have voted for our last democrat policy adopting RINO in our lifetimes. If it’s Rudy against Hillary, good luck country. It couldn’t win either way.
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