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Threat Matrix: September 2007
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Posted on 09/01/2007 6:24:54 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
September 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 911; afghanistan; ahmadinejad; alqaeda; alqaida; binladen; bus; denmark; germany; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hizbuttahrir; ht; iran; iraq; israel; jihad; jihadunion; lebanon; mexico; pakistan; phosgene; russia; september112001; sixthanniversary; spain; styphnicacid; syria; taleban; taliban; terrorism; threatmatrix; ubl; un; unmovic; videotape; wisconsin
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To: callmejoe
Would there be any circumstances under which he would shave his beard if that were to be the case (a visual signal/cue for martyrdom)?

====

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20010929/ai_n14414432

The last prayer concluded: "There is no God but God, I being a sinner. We are of God, and to God we return." The document recovered from the crash site in Pennsylvania bore many similarities, with some additional details. It exhorted the hijackers to shave their body hair the night before.

"Purify your head," it said. "Cleanse it from dross ... Be cheerful, for you have only moments between you and your eternity, after which a happy and satisfying life begins."

====

I wonder if we'd even recognize a beardless Usama.
401 posted on 09/06/2007 7:48:22 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: Godzilla; Cindy; nwctwx; drymans wife; Velveeta; callmejoe; PGalt; JellyJam; ExSoldier; ...
Widening The Net
German Investigators Seek Identities of Terror Masterminds
September 06, 2007

With the arrests of three suspected Islamist terrorists on Tuesday, German investigators may have foiled a plot to cause massive explosions -- but their work is far from over. They are still looking for at least seven other named suspects in connection with the case -- and want to find them as soon as possible. And they are also trying to discover the identity of two men located abroad, who they know only by aliases and e-mail addresses.

The Federal Prosecutor's Office is investigating the seven other men for membership in a terrorist organization. The cell of ten radicals is made up of Turks and some Germans who have converted to Islam. They are thought to have set up their own branch of the Uzbek "Islamic Jihad Union" (IJU) and to have started to plan terrorist attacks on US targets in Germany. The three arrested suspects had all been at training camps in Pakistan and possibly met members of the IJU there.

The investigators are also focusing on two unknown people, who they only know by their aliases. Based on intercepted e-mails with Fritz G., one of the three suspects arrested on Tuesday, German authorities think the two men may have been the masterminds behind the planned attacks. They are believed to be in Pakistan, and the e-mails show that they didn't seem to give specific orders to the German cell but rather acted as mentors.

Fritz G., thought to be the ringleader, attempted to avoid detection by not sending e-mails directly, but by putting them in a drafts folder that could be accessed by both sides. It was an old trick, used by the men who planned the Sept. 11 attacks -- and one that the German authorities quickly saw through.

In fact the intelligence agencies had been reading Fritz G.'s e-mails since spring 2007. The communications included discussions of possible targets for attack, as well as logistical details. The authorities are still not sure about the structure of the German terror cell. One theory is that there was an inner and outer circle, with some members not knowing the exact details of the bomb plot.

The authorities are now looking for a 22-year-old Turk, Zafer S. who was born in the same town as one of the arrested men, Daniel S. He left the country recently and is thought to be in Turkey. He is also believed to have been in a Pakistan training camp. The authorities are also looking for three Turkish men, who are acquaintances of Fritz G.

And investigators are also looking for the Lebanese Hussein al-M., who was arrested along with the German Islamist Tolga D. on the Pakistan-Iran border in June. He was expelled from Pakistan and arrived at Frankfurt airport on Tuesday, where he was interviewed by police before being released. Now the police would like to have a few more words with him.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,504327,00.html

The Pakistani road to German terror
Sep 7, 2007

SNIP:
It is entirely possible that the men trained in Pakistan, in which case their teacher would have been al-Qaeda commander Abu Hanifah, who has a base in the town of Mir Ali in the North Waziristan tribal area.

"Abu Hanifah was commanding 27 Turks when last he was seen in Mir Ali, and if the people who were arrested in Germany are genuinely part of al-Qaeda and confessed to be trained in Pakistan, they could only be trained at Abu Hanifah's camp," a contact in North Waziristan told Asia Times Online.

The control of all foreign fighters in North Waziristan and South Waziristan from different regions of the world is generally in the hands of Arabs, the most astute and trained commanders. For example, Abu Nasir commands Chinese, Uighurs and Pakistanis; Abu Akash looks after Uzbeks and Tajiks, while Abu Hanifah takes care of Turks, Kurds and Bosnians.

Abu Hanifah was among the al-Qaeda commanders expelled from Mir Ali by the Pakistani Taliban early this year in a conflict between the local tribals and foreign fighters, whose authority the Taliban resented. Several hundred Uzbeks were massacred in the unrest. Abu Hanifah, along with Abu Akash and Abu Nasir, took refuge in the isolated and inhospitable Shawal, a no-man's land that spans the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

Excerpted

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/II07Df03.html

UPDATE:
USF students' box of bullets adds intrigue
Sept 6, 2007
Bullets were in the car of arrested USF pair.

TAMPA -- Bullets were among the items investigators found in the car of two University of South Florida students. The deputy who pulled over Ahmed Abdellatif Sherif Mohamed and Youssef Samir Megahed, 21, found a box of bullets near the seat, several pipe bombs in the trunk and "other suspicious items," according to the Berkeley County Sheriff's Office. The men have said they had only fireworks, but deputies found no sign of any commercial fireworks, said Berkeley County Chief Deputy C.W. Henerey. The new information only deepened the mystery of why the two engineering students ended up on Aug. 4 in Goose Creek, S.C., a suburban city near Charleston.

Excerpted

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/09/06/Hillsborough/USF_students__box_of_.shtml


402 posted on 09/06/2007 7:48:29 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: All

Officials look for source of laser aimed at airliner (Chicago)

Federal authorities tried Thursday to track down an individual who shined a laser into the cockpit of a Northwest Airlines plane coming in to land at O’Hare International Airport.(snip)

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-laser-both_07sep07,0,5946644.story


403 posted on 09/06/2007 7:48:43 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: nwctwx

Thank-You for the ping!


404 posted on 09/06/2007 8:02:35 PM PDT by Wandaroos
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To: Oorang

All of these incidents lately seem to target the US Military at home and abroad


405 posted on 09/06/2007 8:04:24 PM PDT by cmsgop (Hillary's Milkshake is better than Your's, She could teach you, but you would rather go blind.......)
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Germans watch rising conversion to Islam with concern
Sep 6, 2007

Berlin - The German authorities are watching the rising tide of conversion to Islam with some concern, the daily Berliner Zeitung reported Thursday.

The newspaper cited figures compiled by a Muslim group that showed that 4,000 Germans had converted last year, compared with just 1,000 in 2005. It was common knowledge that the German authorities were monitoring converts to Islam closely, it said. Quoting Interior Ministry officials, the newspaper said there had been a rise internationally in the number of converts involved in Islamist terrorist acts.

Among them are 'shoe bomber' Richard Reid, a Briton who tried to blow up an American Airlines flight in December 2001, and Muriel Degauque, a Belgian suicide bomber who blew herself up in Iraq in November 2005. Guido Steinberg, who researches Islamic issues, said extremists were targeting new converts, and terrorist expert Rolf Tophoven said converts tended to be fanatical.

According to Salim Abdullah, who runs the Islam Archive, there are currently 3.3 million Muslims in Germany, 18,000 of them of German origin. The Interior Ministry estimates the number of converts at 15,000 but notes that woman converts tend to bring up their children as Muslims and estimates that 40,000 native Germans are living according to Muslim custom.

Abdullah attributed the increase in conversions to rising Islamophobia. 'Whenever Islam falls under suspicion, many people start to feel solidarity with the religion,' he told the Berliner Zeitung. This had been visible immediately after the September 11 attacks in 2001. Abdullah noted that more women than men were converts, in a ratio of 60 to 40, but added that conviction rather than marriage to a Muslim was usually the reason.

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/news/article_1352428.php/SIDEBAR_Germans_watch_rising_conversion_to_Islam_with_concern

UK link to terrorists planning new 9/11 massacre
05.09.07

Islamic terrorists planning a massacre in Germany on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks phoned British contacts as they plotted, it has emerged.

Excerpted

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23411090-details/UK+link+to+terrorists+planning+new+911+massacre/article.do?ito=newsnow&

406 posted on 09/06/2007 8:06:18 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: cmsgop

Yes it does. They sure aren’t shy in their hatred of freedom and our freedom fighters.


407 posted on 09/06/2007 8:08:41 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: nwctwx
"I wonder if we'd even recognize a beardless Usama." He might look like this

or possibly this


408 posted on 09/06/2007 8:15:38 PM PDT by CJ Wolf
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To: milkncookies

Hopefully, nothing else.
Your list is plenty.


409 posted on 09/06/2007 8:17:59 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: nwctwx; callmejoe; Cindy; All

Update: It’s 10:15 and Fox says the video is due within hours.
http://hotair.com/archives/2007/09/06/site-institute-new-bin-laden-video-coming-on-911/


410 posted on 09/06/2007 8:20:09 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: nwctwx

Thanks very much for the ping (post #337). Interesting.


411 posted on 09/06/2007 8:21:10 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: Velveeta

Thanks Vel.


412 posted on 09/06/2007 8:22:41 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Oorang

Thank you for the ping. GRRRRRREAT thread with grrrrrreat links! BTTT!


413 posted on 09/06/2007 8:24:56 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: nwctwx
Ian, thanks again for the ping.

In the past, I haven't put much stock in the 9/11 anniversary date, but this one is quite worrisome. Let me see if I can recap all of the news that fits the pattern recently.

I think the OBL video will be the key element to this. If this turns out to be another rehash of his old videos, then I'm probably not going to worry too much. But if it does end up being a provably new video, then the pucker factor will be going up at my household for sure. I think that chances are high that OBL is nothing more than some charred bits on a cave floor, but who really knows for sure? I'll be keeping a close eye on this one.
414 posted on 09/06/2007 8:42:30 PM PDT by thecabal
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To: Oorang

Thank you too.
Looks like Germany still has quite a bit of work to do to to round up the rest of the cell.


415 posted on 09/06/2007 8:50:15 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: All

Dr Qadeer in Karachi for check-up

KARACHI, Sept 6: Nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, who landed at Karachi airport on Thursday, is likely to visit a private university hospital here on Friday for a check-up.

A source privy to the movement of the scientist said that soon after his arrival Dr Qadeer was taken to a relative’s house in Mohammad Ali Housing Society.

The controversial scientist has been under house arrest for the last four years.

The source maintained that Dr Qadeer was well as far as his health was concerned. He was operated upon for prostate cancer about a year ago at the Aga Khan University Hospital and had been brought back to the city for a routine check-up, the source added.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/07/top13.htm


416 posted on 09/06/2007 8:54:15 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Velveeta; All
Germany eyeing more suspects in plot
September 6, 2007

KARLSRUHE, Germany: German investigators were trying to build a case on Thursday against a handful of suspects beyond the three arrested in connection with a foiled terrorist attack by Islamic militants, and German officials prepared to debate whether security services should be given wider surveillance powers.

Officials know the identities and whereabouts of several of the seven suspects still at large, some still in Germany, according to the federal prosecutor's office. Their homes were among about 30 properties raided this week, said Andreas Christeleit, a spokesman for the federal prosecutor's office in Karlsruhe.

"They are not fugitives; we know where they are," Christeleit said. But the authorities lacked the evidence to arrest them, he said, without adding any specifics. Others, he said, are abroad, and two are known only by aliases.

Excerpted

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/07/europe/07germany.php


417 posted on 09/06/2007 9:13:52 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Velveeta

Have you listened to the audio excerpt on this

http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/189289.php

website yet? The link was posted earlier in the thread today but I wasn’t able to get the audio to work. I just got it to work. It is beyond disturbing..


418 posted on 09/06/2007 9:16:12 PM PDT by KylaStarr
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To: Velveeta; nwctwx; Cindy; Oorang; All

SITE Institute has pulled any reference to an OBL tape. Whats up with this?


419 posted on 09/06/2007 9:24:11 PM PDT by Godzilla (Why is 'abbreviation' such a long word?)
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To: Godzilla

Their site seems screwed up... maybe traffic?


420 posted on 09/06/2007 9:30:34 PM PDT by nwctwx
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