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Threat Matrix: September 2007
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Posted on 09/01/2007 6:24:54 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
September 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 911; afghanistan; ahmadinejad; alqaeda; alqaida; binladen; bus; denmark; germany; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hizbuttahrir; ht; iran; iraq; israel; jihad; jihadunion; lebanon; mexico; pakistan; phosgene; russia; september112001; sixthanniversary; spain; styphnicacid; syria; taleban; taliban; terrorism; threatmatrix; ubl; un; unmovic; videotape; wisconsin
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To: nwctwx
Thanks for the ping. I’ve not caught up on the posts as I’ve been gone most of today, again. Perhaps someone else has mentioned this; FoxNews has been showing a photo of OBL from this supposed new video. IMO it is not OBL. It’s not just the dark beard. Unless he has put on 40 pounds and tweaked his nose a bit its not OBL.
381 posted on 09/06/2007 6:23:18 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: nwctwx

It sure looks like the beard is digitally hand-colored to black as well as shortened.

I think you’re right that the picture on this recent as sahab banner is from the Oct 04 video. Same background, same outfit.


382 posted on 09/06/2007 6:31:30 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: null and void

LOL


383 posted on 09/06/2007 6:33:35 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: KylaStarr

He definitely hasn’t aged well.


384 posted on 09/06/2007 6:34:55 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Mordacious

Hard to tell for sure, Mordacious.


385 posted on 09/06/2007 6:39:42 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Velveeta

Didn’t he say in the last message to us that we would not see him again until the next attack happened. I seem to remember that. Also That post on the other site would correspond to this announcement if they release it in the 72 hour time frame it would be on 9/9 the numbers at the bottom of the picture. Just food for thought. Also on the original post it talked about 9:30 and the number 4. Doesn’t wall streat open at 9:30 in the morning. And I am thinking of that old picture that AQ put out with the 11 fires on it. The picture was of Manhantan.


386 posted on 09/06/2007 6:45:39 PM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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To: GorillaMa

>>>Gold jumped $14 today

That’s a big jump, indeed alarming.


387 posted on 09/06/2007 6:53:42 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Velveeta

Boy, he really does look pretty gruff.


388 posted on 09/06/2007 7:00:46 PM PDT by Godzilla (Why is 'abbreviation' such a long word?)
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To: nwctwx

“Not saying this is it... but, I wonder if bin Laden would have a “production” ready to go when he martyrs himself — if that wish of his can ever come true.”

Would there be any circumstances under which he would shave his beard if that were to be the case (a visual signal/cue for martyrdom)? If so, they would have a reason to mask that so as not to give that away before the video. There was a story back in 2005 that he wanted to do something like that during Ramadan. If he chooses to go out that way, I’m pretty sure it will be something spectacular and not in a car bomb. More like in the “Winds of Martyrs”.

” . . .And most surely this year will I lead my steed and hurl It and my soul, at one of the targets.

So 0 my Lord if my demise has come, then let it not be Upon a bier draped with green mantles.

But let my grave be an eagle’s belly, its resting place In the sky’s atmosphere amongst perched eagles.

And I become a martyr, dwelling amongst a band, Attacked in a level mountain pass of the Earth.

Knights of Qahtaan; devoutness to Allah Has joined them together, they descend when the armies meet.

When they depart from their Worldly life, they depart from the harm And reach the appointment found in the scriptures.”

- - UBL, Feb 2003

http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level.php?cat=Terrorism&loid=8.0.195136406&par=0

TERRORISM: BIN LADEN TO ENTER IRAQ DURING RAMADAN, SAYS IRANIAN REPORT

Tehran, 8 August (AKI) - US troops in Iraq have seized documents that suggest fugitive al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden is planning to enter Iraq during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, an Iranian news agency reported on Monday. Bin Laden’s visit to Iraq during Ramadan, which this year begins in early October, would be part of an al-Qaeda attempt to further destabilise the war-ravaged country, and to lead a coup attempt against the government in Baghdad, the Mehr news agency said.

Citing a spokesman from the Shiite grouping, the Hezbollah of Iraq, the report said that Americans soldiers found documents, apparently meant for internal use by an Iraqi al-Qaeda linked group, the Mujahadeen of the Land of Rafedin, mentioning the al-Qaeda leaders planned visit.

The documents were seized in a house in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, the report said.


389 posted on 09/06/2007 7:05:27 PM PDT by callmejoe
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To: Mata6858
Didn’t he say in the last message to us that we would not see him again until the next attack happened. I seem to remember that.

That's the way I remember it as well, but haven't found the exact quote where he stated that. If you find it, please let me know.

I'm wondering about 9/9 as well - something just doesn't fit and I can't put my finger on it.

Yes, Wall Street opening bell is 9:30 EST.

390 posted on 09/06/2007 7:06:33 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Velveeta

Will do it has to be in the 2004 video I would think.


391 posted on 09/06/2007 7:09:52 PM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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To: nwctwx
Not saying this is it... but, I wonder if bin Laden would have a "production" ready to go when he martyrs himself -- if that wish of his can ever come true. Has a leader of an islamist terror group ever martyred himself in any meaningful way?

If the deadened look on his face is any indicator, he may be close to death from natural causes. If that is the case, he may try to finally do the martyrs path as he has promised in the past. The 'death' video analogy is a significant observation. Other associated timing - the pending Petraeous report on the surge, 6 yr anniversary, volatile presidential campaign politics, the start of NFL regular season.

392 posted on 09/06/2007 7:10:31 PM PDT by Godzilla (Why is 'abbreviation' such a long word?)
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To: nwctwx

I almost forgot - RAMADAN


393 posted on 09/06/2007 7:12:55 PM PDT by Godzilla (Why is 'abbreviation' such a long word?)
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To: Mata6858

Actually, thank you to a FReepmailer....here it is:

Al-Qaeda issues fresh threat

December 26, 2003 - 8:05AM

Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden will issue the next of his video messages after a massive attack on US territory, Saudi weekly Al-Majallah quotes an official of the terror network as saying, in its next edition.

Quoting an e-mail received from a man who goes by the name of Abu Mohammed al-Ablaj, the weekly reports that “an emissary of bin Laden has informed me that the al-Qaeda chief’s (next) appearance (on video cassette) will come after a deadly, far-reaching operation on American territory.

“In the video, bin Laden will evoke the success of his backers in once again striking the United States to the core and America’s failure (in its anti-terrorist campaign) both outside and inside the country,” the al-Qaeda official was reported as saying in the e-mail.

“Bin Laden will also reaffirm al-Qaeda’s determination to continue its war against America, until its defeat,” said the message from Ablaj, who last February announced to the Saudi weekly that bin Laden would release a video statement after the US-led war in Iraq.

The most recent message alleged to be from bin Laden was an audiotape broadcast last week by Dubai-based Al-Arabiya satellite channel, but its Qatar-based rival Al-Jazeera said the tape was the same one it had aired more extensively on October 18.

Both Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, the leading Arab news channels, have been accused by US officials of inciting violence by airing such tapes of al-Qaeda leaders as well as those of deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein before he was captured by US forces on December 13. They have denied the charge.

A day before the alleged bin Laden tape was aired, Al-Jazeera broadcast a tape purported to be from bin Laden’s right-hand man Ayman al-Zawahiri, in which he said the Americans were beginning to stagger under the blows of al-Qaeda.

A US intelligence official said in Washington that CIA analysts had concluded that the Zawahiri tape was “most likely” authentic.

The report in the Saudi weekly came as Americans celebrated a nervous Christmas under heightened terrorist alerts and tight security nationwide.

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/US/01/30/terror.threat/index.html


394 posted on 09/06/2007 7:25:09 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Velveeta

Interesting I think there is another one though that stated he would address the American people like 15 minutes before the next attack. I may be wrong but that is nagging me in the back on my mind.


395 posted on 09/06/2007 7:32:50 PM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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To: Velveeta

It would be prudent to be a bit more vigilant over the next five days. An attack could come at any time.


396 posted on 09/06/2007 7:33:29 PM PDT by Mossad1967
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To: Mata6858

It’s hard to keep ‘em all straight.


397 posted on 09/06/2007 7:35:20 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Mossad1967

I agree Mossad.
Stay safe.


398 posted on 09/06/2007 7:36:46 PM PDT by Velveeta
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To: Velveeta
Gold rises.
Mexican trucks take to U.S. highways unhindered.
U.S. financial institutions struggling to stay above water.
Puts on the major markets
Russian bombers probing U.S.' and it's allies' defenses.
China threatens U.S. with economic holocaust.
China hacks U.S. computers.
Significant increase in chatter this week.
Chavez talking trash to U.S.
Mexico says will exchange ambassadors with Venezuela and Cuba.
Borders remain open.

Word comes of a Bin Laden tape.
What else?

399 posted on 09/06/2007 7:42:05 PM PDT by milkncookies (Molon Labe)
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To: Velveeta

I meant to say thank you for that and for the FReepermailer.


400 posted on 09/06/2007 7:45:09 PM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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