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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
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Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
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As much as I hate to say it, it seems the weather people are following the MSM's "if it bleeds, it leads".
000 URNT12 KNHC 200408 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 20/03:42:50Z B. 17 deg 30 min N 079 deg 00 min W C. 700 mb 2467 m D. 105 kt E. 226 deg 8 nm F. 342 deg 104 kt G. 226 deg 016 nm H. 927 mb I. 7 C/ 3069 m J. 15 C/ 3044 m K. 15 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C15 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 16 MAX FL WIND 142 KT NW QUAD 02:25:20 Z MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 145 KT N QUAD 03:48:30 Z MAX SWS 125 KT N QUAD 03:47:00 Z DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OUTBOUND N QUAD
- Motion over the last 1:23 275 degrees at 20.7 mph.
- Pressure unchanged from the previous VDM.
Do you see that low ‘beckoning’ Dean? Or just me?
I am an extreme novice on these threads and have no opinion that anyone should be much concerned about. But that flat straight line in Post #721 bothers me.
How can people be so certain that a hurricane, especially one of this magnitude, will behave so predictablly?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Good Question~~~
That’s a general track,,,the storm could hit north or south of that line,,,it has followed a WNW general direction
since there ain’t much to “steer” it,(winds aloft/etc.)
With that, I'm calling it a night. Wish I could stay awake to watch the next ERC.
Ya’ll hold the fort down, time to call it a night.
It’s ridiculous...I couldn’t believe even the local channels...I couldn’t even watch it...once the models changed...they’d say Texas is out of danger but you never know it could change...you know hurricanes. Disgusting...
Claymores laid out, tripwires set, I’m history as well.
G'Night all.
LOL, and this passes for reasoned for you? Okay, well nevermind. I guess it was a pretty complex concept after all.
I do appreciate you providing the thread. Why don’t you just insult me one more time for trying to provide a reasoned solution to the problem and be done with it.
I won’t be responding.
I just know the latitudes and longitudes...not the cities...
On top of that, I couldn’t believe Governor Perry...I guess better safe than sorry...
OMG...years ago we went to buy plywood when HD opened pre-dawn with a storm approaching. First in line, I found an employee who offered to cut the plywood down to a manageable size before management made the announcement over the PA system--no plywood would be cut to size in the store.
Excellent points. Thanks for checking in here.
Bump Dat...Too much krap to load for some folks,,,
like ya’ said they mite be down to a laptop on batteries/etc.
This ain’t the canteen...;0)
I imagine the pols are caught between an election year and the media/trial lawyers gunning to crush them for lack of preparation.
Do you know the city it might enter the mainland of Mexico through? Will it likely hit closer to Mexico city or Guadalajara?
~~~~~~~~~~~
One or the other from that last track...
Thanks for always being here with these threads! Had to google to find it, in chat. :( I really appreciate these threads NN!
I share your concern; we are watching that Low in the Gulf closely here in Central Texas, as well.
Erin, as predicted by the models three days ago, was supposed to have moved westward quickly with minimal impact on most of Texas. Instead, it has meandered around Texas and then moved northeastward, with greater impact than previously modeled...
Streams of moisture are still flowing into Texas from the Gulf, and the same forces that formed and moved Erin - and this new unpredicted low - are in play as Dean approaches. These forces are not being accurately predicted in the same models that are forecasting Dean’s path.
My biggest concern regards how totally UNRELIABLE these models have been for us in Texas this entire year. With such a consistantly bad track record, I’m not at all comfortable with these models will finally “get it right” this time for Texas regarding Dean. I’m not saying Dean’s forecast path *can’t* happen - I’m simply pointing out that some unidentified weather forces are causing chaos in the models this year, and there is a strong possibility that unmodeled forces may cause Dean’s track to be far more unpredictable than these same models are forecasting.
Atlantic Floater 1 shows the storm tracking near due west
at this time,,,
General Direction : WNW,,,wobble north then back to the west...
When’s the last time you refreshed the water vapor loop?
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