Do you see that low ‘beckoning’ Dean? Or just me?
I share your concern; we are watching that Low in the Gulf closely here in Central Texas, as well.
Erin, as predicted by the models three days ago, was supposed to have moved westward quickly with minimal impact on most of Texas. Instead, it has meandered around Texas and then moved northeastward, with greater impact than previously modeled...
Streams of moisture are still flowing into Texas from the Gulf, and the same forces that formed and moved Erin - and this new unpredicted low - are in play as Dean approaches. These forces are not being accurately predicted in the same models that are forecasting Dean’s path.
My biggest concern regards how totally UNRELIABLE these models have been for us in Texas this entire year. With such a consistantly bad track record, I’m not at all comfortable with these models will finally “get it right” this time for Texas regarding Dean. I’m not saying Dean’s forecast path *can’t* happen - I’m simply pointing out that some unidentified weather forces are causing chaos in the models this year, and there is a strong possibility that unmodeled forces may cause Dean’s track to be far more unpredictable than these same models are forecasting.
From what I've read, the experts don't think so. It surely looks interesting spinning there in the GOM.