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Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part II
NOAA/NHC ^ | August 19, 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse

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To: Orange1998

If your Hillary Clinton!


681 posted on 08/19/2007 7:56:20 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: burzum
Nothing is going to hold this monster back now.

AND, as its track edges Southward, it will do far greater damage to Mexico's oil industry (Mexico is second only to Canada in energy exports to the U.S.)!

682 posted on 08/19/2007 7:57:11 PM PDT by ExSES (the "bottom-line")
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To: Krodg
because only 'they' knew exactly what was going to happen.

Sorry but the news media never knows exactly what is going to happen. In fact they make a living on guessing.

683 posted on 08/19/2007 7:57:15 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: vox humana

Yup and it had the voice of a demon when said. Gave me the willys.


684 posted on 08/19/2007 7:59:02 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: Rte66

I used dialup for decades. I didn’t ask others to forgo using their latest technology so I could play along. I set my browser not to load graphics and played with the big boys without so much as a whimper.

As for your being ill and down on your luck, my primary objective is to have as many conservatives congregate as is possible. That includes both people with dial-up and the latest equipment.

I appreciate you including me in that small-minded and cruel group, but I will say that I suggested a solution that would serve everyone, without asking you or anyone else to limit their device in any way. If that’s small minded, I think your threshhold is rather low. Now if I were asking others to limit their machines to 3/4 capability, I guess you could make that case.

Glad to have you here. I appreciate your reply.


685 posted on 08/19/2007 7:59:24 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: Eaker

This storm is staying South. Mexico is going to get it. Nothing in the upper atmosphere steers this storm until it reaches Pacific currents.


686 posted on 08/19/2007 8:00:00 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: vox humana

Ha Ha,,,i saw that and it’s why i promptly obeyed ;0)


687 posted on 08/19/2007 8:00:46 PM PDT by DrewsMum (what????????)
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To: eyedigress

~ placemarker ~


688 posted on 08/19/2007 8:01:32 PM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: eyedigress

I guess we can go home now. <sarc’’


689 posted on 08/19/2007 8:01:39 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: NautiNurse
Must be Silly Season. I put down the wrong number on the advisory (shame that WUnderground doesn't put it in like they do for the discussions), the NHC uses an estimated pressure with AF304 in and a fresh VDM at 10:19 pm Eastern and then puts down 2 different numbers. Let's see if the current VDM holds...

000
URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
  078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN         OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER

Oddly; the pressure is up even as the 700 mb pressure altitude is down. Movement over the last 48 minutes due west (270 degrees) at 22 mph.

690 posted on 08/19/2007 8:01:48 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: Orange1998

Really, it's what they do.

691 posted on 08/19/2007 8:01:53 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: NautiNurse

The east-west shear line is too far to the north, this has MEXICO written all over it. Nature getting even for them dumping on US?


692 posted on 08/19/2007 8:03:01 PM PDT by timer (n/0=n=nx0)
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To: txflake

Looks to me like that squirrel is just begging for popcorn!


693 posted on 08/19/2007 8:03:49 PM PDT by burzum (None shall see me, though my battlecry may give me away -Minsc)
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To: txflake

I don’t now why I find that so funny. Gave me a good belly laugh.


694 posted on 08/19/2007 8:04:05 PM PDT by Orange1998
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To: NautiNurse

this deserves an honorable mention here:

Meteorologist Busts a Move During Live TV Broadcast
08-19-2007 1:16 pm
Sometimes the weather report just makes one want to...dance. Stick with it — toward the end she attempts to moonwalk

http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=4534


695 posted on 08/19/2007 8:04:11 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: All
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 28

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2007

The eye of Dean has been passing just south of Jamaica since about
1900 UTC and has just crossed the longitude of negril on the
western end of the island.  The center came within about 20 N mi of
Portland Point on the south-central coast...close enough to bring
hurricane-force winds to Kingston.  While passing by Jamaica...
satellite imagery suggested the eye diameter was gradually
shrinking.  An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft arrived in the
eye of Dean at 0130 UTC and revealed that the pressure had fallen
to near 925 mb...and that Dean now has a single eyewall at a
diameter of about 15 N mi.  Maximum surface winds from the SFMR
have been 121 kt...and flight-level winds have been as high as 143
kt...both of which support maintaining the advisory intensity at
125 kt.
 
Dean is heading toward 280 degrees at about 17 kt with steering
provided by a strengthening mid-level ridge over the southeastern
United States.  The models all agree that the ridge will get even
stronger and move a little westward with Dean...meaning that Dean
will probably move in a rather straight line until final landfall
in Mexico.  Overall the models have again edged a little
southward...and so has the official forecast.  The NOAA
Gulfstream-IV jet conducted a synoptic surveillance mission this
evening to provide data for the 0000 UTC model cycle.  The jet will
continue to fly missions every 12 hours to collect data through the
12z model cycle Tuesday morning.
 
All of the objective guidance calls for strengthening in the
northwestern Caribbean where the shear will remain weak and the
ocean heat content very high.  The official forecast follows suit
and indicates that Dean could reach category five status during the
next day or so.  The hurricane will weaken while over Yucatan in
proportion to just how long it spends over land.  The opportunity
for restrengthening over the southwestern Gulf likewise depends on
the exact track...and that window has been shortening with the
southward shifts in track.  Although not explicitly indicated in
the new official forecast...it is still possible that Dean could
restrengthen and again reach major hurricane status prior to final
landfall along the coast of Mainland Mexico.
 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      20/0300z 17.6n  78.8w   125 kt
 12hr VT     20/1200z 18.0n  81.4w   130 kt
 24hr VT     21/0000z 18.5n  84.9w   140 kt
 36hr VT     21/1200z 19.2n  88.4w   105 kt...inland
 48hr VT     22/0000z 19.8n  91.9w    80 kt
 72hr VT     23/0000z 21.0n  99.0w    55 kt...inland
 96hr VT     24/0000z...dissipated
 
$$
forecaster Knabb

696 posted on 08/19/2007 8:05:00 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: Orange1998

Your home in Guadalajara might be in danger. I’d leave a number with the neighbor. :^) (Cuba given the all clear BTW)


697 posted on 08/19/2007 8:06:09 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: All

Focus, people.


698 posted on 08/19/2007 8:06:23 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: Orange1998

I heard you the first time.


699 posted on 08/19/2007 8:07:11 PM PDT by Krodg
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To: steveegg

Are you serious?


700 posted on 08/19/2007 8:08:06 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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