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To: NautiNurse
Must be Silly Season. I put down the wrong number on the advisory (shame that WUnderground doesn't put it in like they do for the discussions), the NHC uses an estimated pressure with AF304 in and a fresh VDM at 10:19 pm Eastern and then puts down 2 different numbers. Let's see if the current VDM holds...

000
URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
  078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN         OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER

Oddly; the pressure is up even as the 700 mb pressure altitude is down. Movement over the last 48 minutes due west (270 degrees) at 22 mph.

690 posted on 08/19/2007 8:01:48 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
Movement over the last 48 minutes due west (270 degrees) at 22 mph.

The only thing it could do better than that is do a 180 and go visit Chavez.

704 posted on 08/19/2007 8:11:50 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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