The best model today is the ECMWF Model.
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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images/Radar
Additional Resources:
StormCarib Island locals post their observations
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Report from Negril 5 mins ago:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml
” ... roof is peeling off a large building...shingles flying etc...I think it is going to get worse as we get the tail end of this...??? ...”
Sure enough, that's what happened a few years later.
Too bad Buoy 42057 was never replaced. Dean looks like it will cut right between buoys 42057 and 42056 on the way to the Yucatan Pen.
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True Dat,,,can’t have too many for me although I tend to
get hung-up on the sat-pics,,,
Is that the track for Tampico ??
The best model today is the ECMWF Model.
He was on work detail yesterday at the plant ... today he’s goofing off. ;-)
Note in passing —
Gas price at my usual station up 5 cents since this morning...
Just the start.....
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Hey Ike,,,ya’ got that rite,,,
Startled me there:’).I think that’s where it will end up ...just South of Brownsville. I have nothing scientific to base that on though. I’m told we have gas trucks and the NG on their way, to be ready to evacuate 135000 people. I hear that they already have beds for most of them. Tomorrow they will decide whether to go back home or start evacuating. It should be an interesting day.
Cancun will be on the dirty side of this storm.
Still better than being run over. :)
Caution: BIG file
I know how you feel and I can’t quite feel comfortable about these storm tracks just yet. Those cat 5’s tend to just do whatever, when you get winds of that velocity I would figure it would take a strong high to keep it from wanting to begin to shift NW.
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
...Hurricane conditions sweep across the southern coast of Jamaica
as the eye of Dean passes just to the south...
...Outer rain bands affecting Haiti and eastern Cuba...
At 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...the government of Belize has issued a
Hurricane Watch from Belize City northward to the Belize/Mexico
border...and a tropical storm watch from south of Belize City
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Preparations to protect life and property in Jamaica
should have already been completed. Preparations in the Cayman
Islands should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the Haiti/Dominican
Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for
portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward
to the province of Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Chetumal to San Felipe on
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the following provinces
of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana... Ciego de Avila...Sancti
Spiritus... Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 17.5 north...longitude 77.8 west or about 70 miles...
115 km...west-southwest of Kingston Jamaica and about 265
miles...425 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr. A motion
between west and west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
On the forecast track...the center of Dean will be passing very near
the southwestern coast of Jamaica during the next several hours...
and just south of the Cayman Islands on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in
major hurricanes and are possible during the next 24 hours. Dean
has the potential to become a category five hurricane in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km. An observation of sustained winds of 80 mph was
reported from Kingston Jamaica...and an unofficial observation of
sustained winds of 100 mph was reported from lionel town Jamaica.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean within the Hurricane Warning area.
Ham radio reports indicate flooded streets in Kingston Jamaica.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to
8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
Cayman Islands. Additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible
over southern Hispaniola with maximum storm totals of 10 inches.
Eastern Cuba could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum
amounts up to 7 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...17.5 N...77.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph.
Minimum central pressure...930 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb/Roberts
Do I need the "/s" tag? :)
You know, I am so glad those of us in Texas are still being a bit leery of this storm.
Roger Dat...
Dean hugged the southern coast of Jamaica quite closer than all the models predicted. I don’t think S.Texas is in the all-clear yet.
Like we were discussing yesterday, we can relax in November.;)
bump til morning....
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