Oddly, the site indicates yesterday 8/17 as the last point location for the vessel. I would hope she's working quickly to get out of Dean's way.
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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
New thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1883326/posts?page=1 |
Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Hope you have a plan. I remember how jammed packed the roads get in your area during an evacuation.
Just my opinion...but it doesn’t look good for your area.
The island isns't the same here anymore either. :(
They could take a week off in south Florida, just make sure they lock the gate when they leave.
That was a one-run outlier. The next run shifted all the way back to South Texas, and all other models have been trending leftwards as well. The upper low over Florida looks like it will have little impact over Dean's course over the longer term of the forecast.
Dean needs to follow the Nascar tradition, go fast, turn left.
Hubby built our housed and pretty much doubled/tripled the code. Framing inspector said "I know where I'm riding out the next hurricane!". lol IMHO, a house on the coast cannot have too many hurricane straps! or bracing!
He's a General Contractor and does alot of additions and builds them with the same thought... the next 'big one'.
Dean needs to follow the Howard Dean tradition, turn left and fizzle out.
Here's a shot that shows the "bounce".
You cannot get too carried away with hurricane safeguards when building, IMHO. While this house is built better than most, we were so limited on fundage. Next house we build will be even better (more like yours).
My house is right on Galveston Bay at 12’ elavation, the only thing I worry about is storm surge. It would take a cat4/5 coming in here to 50 miles south of here to make me leave. Rita was close, very very close, but hapily she turn north at the last minute. One good thing about waiting to the last minute is you know where the storm is going to hit and where to go to get out of the way.
In that satellite loop, if you check the “Trop Fcst Pts” box at the top, it will show the NW turn is built into the forecast. Note too the NHC has forecasted Dean as a Cat 5 as he nears the Yucatan, a very unusual event for the NHC.
If it doesn't hit the Yucatan Peninsula and goes into the Gulf, it could top Katrina in devastation.
Ship KE5FTK (Private Yacht?) is reporting 11+ foot waves from just a short while ago.
And from this shipping tracking map, it appears to be just north of Valencia?
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml
I remember you sweating your bug out decision for Rita. Thank goodness everything worked out well for you.
My neighbor has a motor home he uses only for hurricanes.
No evacuations...it never leaves his driveway. When the power goes out he just fires up the RV and lives in it til Alabama Power gets around to our neighborhood. After Ivan, they lived in it for 3 weeks...with a/c. We were all pea green with envy!
Since then I’ve bought a generator that will run TV, fridge and a window a/c. I can even unplug one of them and run the washer/dryer when needed. Seems like luxury when nothing else is working.
Got lucky that time, there were only 20 people left in my little town of 3000. I had the only functioning bar left in San Leon. LOL. This time no body is leaving (or so they say), the Rita evac was HELL! Still 24hrs out we should have a very good idea on what Deans plans are. Hope models are correct and Dean goes south of the USA.
Especially since you and I are in hurricane mode...and will be as long as we live here...
..Good deals can be found...(according to the two RV places in town)...
..They know gas has gone up, and homes are not selling...
It's comforting to be in a self-contained place rolling along the highway to escape 'whatever' with everything packed in the 'basement', including extra water, etc.
If we get stuck or have to pull over, we have the bathroom, kitchen w/microwave/fridge/stove and a place to sit or lie down...
It's worth the investment.
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