Shows the heat potential for hurricane development in the waters of the Caribbean and Gulf - 2005 compared to 2007. The waters in the western Caribbean have a very high heat content.
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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
How’d you do that?
magic...
The track is quite similar thus far especially if extrapolated based on NHC future guidance. High pressure in the vicinity of the SE could certainly keep this very far south in the U.S. or northern Mexico but I wouldn’t be so sure just yet. Many times systems in the GOM tend to bend more than expected.
Maybe Mexico, maybe not.
Eeesh - the current Dean track dissects Jamaica.
Fear not - the Rasta Hurricane Repulsive Force is in place (re: Ivan).
HA...visualize that high with a large foot stepping down hard on Dean.
Just when Jamaica picked up a piece of family history too (my younger sister got married at Sunset Beach Resort just outside Montego Bay in April).
At least we're not in Taiwan right now.
The question is which way?
Gracias por su visita!
That would be nice but the weather channel just said the big low that is over the south right now and expected to drift west, would suck Dean more to the north over Texas.
Shows the heat potential for hurricane development in the waters of the Caribbean and Gulf - 2005 compared to 2007. The waters in the western Caribbean have a very high heat content.
Ain’t that just lovely?!?!?
You’re just full of good news (for lumber companies, that is).
But the models don't seem to give that much credence.
How’s yalls weather? It’s raining here.
That’s what I’m hoping for, and maybe a full overnight stay over Havana. Of course, unless it makes an east exit, it’ll regain all that strength in the Gulf.
Didn’t know if you were ready for more bad news just yet, but since you’re here, here’s hoping for a wide miss.
2nd best option is for Dean to emulate Allen and Brett in 1999 - and hit the King Ranch. About the only place left on the Gulf Coast where a major hurricane can make landfall and only cows and wildlife will notice.
They seem to be together until around the Yucatan and then it’s right or left. I was just wondering why.
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