[dirtboy]

Well, there is one interesting wildcard - the GOES WV loop shows an upper-level low drifting westwards just off the east coast of Florida. If that sinks southwards a bit, it could pull Dean up closer to Cuba. Best case would be for Dean to grind along just inland in Cuba and prevent much intensification. Bad for Fidel. Good for us.

But the models don't seem to give that much credence.

[steveegg]

That’s what I’m hoping for, and maybe a full overnight stay over Havana. Of course, unless it makes an east exit, it’ll regain all that strength in the Gulf.

[steveegg]

Speaking of bad news, here goes an eyewall replacement cycle amid more strengthening (mostly in the wind department at this point)...

URNT12 KNHC 171614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/15:59:50Z
B. 14 deg 40 min N
  062 deg 54 min W
C. NA  mb 2787 m
D. 69  kt
E. 215 deg 006 nm
F. 307 deg 065 kt
G. 215 deg 005 nm
H.        963  mb
I.  NA C/ 3040 m
J.  18 C/ 3027 m
K.  11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO17-32
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 22
MAX FL WIND 115 KT NE QUAD 16:03:00 Z
INNER EYE OPEN SW-S