Nat. Rev. "Corner" Blog: Immigration Bill Updated Posture, Fence-Sitters

"The Corner" Blog at National Review Online ^ | 6/25/07 | Jim Geraghty

[Jacksonville Patriot]

Latest on the Cloture Vote for the Immigration Deal [Jim Geraghty]

Just spoke to a spokesman for a Republican opposed to the deal, and helping lead the opposition. Here's what we know right now:

1. Tomorrow is the first test, on the vote to bring it back to the floor. Deal supporters need 60. Opponents think they have about 33-35 right now, so they only need about five to seven more. Kirkorian's earlier Corner post was praised for its accuracy.

Some Republicans on the fence are going to try to have it both ways - vote to bring it back to the floor, so they can get their amendments considered, but not necessarily promise to vote for a) cloture to cut off debate and b) passage. Nonetheless, bill opponents should not forgive a vote to bring it back to the floor, I'm told. They're within a few votes of killing the deal before it comes back; why take the chance on a later vote?

2. The fact that senators are announcing how they will vote on a "procedural" vote is a huge sign of how much pressure they're feeling. For opponents, it's reason for very cautious optimism.

3. A loss tomorrow means there are still two more chances to kill the bill; still, a good opportunity will have been missed.

4. The cloture vote may come before, or after, consideration of certain amendments. Skeptics should not be all that impressed with amendments approved by Reid and Kennedy. Less likely than "poison pills" are "fig leaf" amendments that improve the bill in cosmetic ways, but don't significantly address the real problems with the bill.

06/25 11:52 AM

The List of Twelve [Jim Geraghty]

Around the Hill, Kirkorian's list is being cited as accurate and up to date:

The following 12 senators are leaning against the bill itself but so far are leaning toward the cloture motion — which means, in reality, that they would be helping pass the amnesty, because if the bill comes to a final vote, it will pass. These are the Senators whose decisions will likely determine whether the amnesty passes or not: Bond (R-Mo.), Bingaman (D-N.M.), Burr (R-N.C.), Boxer (D-Calif.), Cochran (R-Miss.), Conrad (D-N.D.), Ensign (R-Nev.), Levin (D-Mich.), Gregg (R-N.H.), Nelson (D-Neb.), Hatch (R-Utah), Webb (D-Va.).

Ahem. Phone numbers can be found here.

In related news, Rush Limbaugh just said that if he were running America, as Trent Lott suggested talk radio is, Lott would be in the House, not the Senate.

06/25 12:36 PM

[Jacksonville Patriot]

My work and a health crisis in my family today have kept me from performing my due-diligence. If these have already been posted, please delete this and accept my apologies.

[gubamyster]

ping

[2ndDivisionVet]

Just say NO to Illegal Alien Amnesty!! Keep calling!! It’s NOT OVER!!

U.S. Senate switchboard: (202) 224-3121

U.S. House switchboard: (202) 225-3121

White House comments: (202) 456-1111

Find your House Rep.: http://www.house.gov/writerep

Find your US Senators: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

[3AngelaD]

For more comments, see also:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1856040/posts

[p. henry]

Just emailed my Senator (Boxer) and urged her to vote no on cloture.

[Moose4]

Burr is going to try and pull a fast one, voting for cloture and against the bill so he can have it both ways. North Carolina depends HEAVILY on illegal farm workers to supplement the H-2A guest farm worker program. Don’t let him get away with it!

As for Webb...hell, he’s Born Idiot. Who knows what he’s going to do. You know Dingy Harry’s putting the squeeze on him, but on the other hand, he’s got this weird populist streak and *might* be susceptible to pressure. Maybe call him and tell him it’ll put all the Scotch-Irish out of a job.

}:-)4

[Jarhead_22]

When this was first up for a cloture vote, I got through to Senator Cornyn’s office without much trouble, but Senator Hutchison’s phone was jammed solid. I called Representative Sam Johnson’s office and his aide agreed to ask Sam to pass on my message to Senator Hutchison: A vote for cloture is a vote for amnesty, and won’t soon be forgotten.

[nina0113]

Maybe call him and tell him it’ll put all the Scotch-Irish out of a job.

I've worked an awful lot of blue-collar jobs, some in Virginia, and that's exactly who it IS going to put out of jobs.

[Cacique]

STOP AMNESTY NOW!! WE CAN DO IT!!

[Regulator]

Bond (R-Mo.), Bingaman (D-N.M.), Burr (R-N.C.), Boxer (D-Calif.), Cochran (R-Miss.), Conrad (D-N.D.), Ensign (R-Nev.), Levin (D-Mich.), Gregg (R-N.H.), Nelson (D-Neb.), Hatch (R-Utah), Webb (D-Va.)

All of the Senators have contact forms on their websites (except Bingaman).

Use the link from above (Post 3) to go to their forms, fill them out, and just say "Vote NO on cloture for the amnesty bill!".

They'll know exactly what you mean.

Took me all of about 15 minutes on Saturday to do that.

[elizabetty]

I am pretty sure Webb has said he is a NO vote on cloture.

[NapkinUser]

If only it was still took 2/3 of senators to invoke cloture and not 3/5.

[3AngelaD]

Hutchison and Cornyn made it clear last week they will not vote for cloture.

[nina0113]

I am pretty sure Webb has said he is a NO vote on cloture.

Sure hope so - I've been calling for days and can NOT get through.

[elizabetty]

I read somewhere today that someone got through to his Hampton Roads office ? Have you tried that?

[Plutarch]

I called Boxer’s office, again posing as a Dem constituent. The staffer stated that Boxer was undecided how she would vote on what I termed “closure”.

[Ancesthntr]

Burr also has a wonderful website (/sarc) - you can’t even put in a state other than North Carolina. Still, I sent my message.

[Ancesthntr]

I just sent the following to all of the Republicans on the list:

“Vote NO on cloture!!

A vote for cloture is a vote for the immigration bill - and millions across the country including my family won’t forget it. Do the right thing and help kill this bill.

Secure the borders FIRST, then we can figure out what to do with millions of illegals.

I say this as the proud and grateful descendant of immigrants and as the husband of an immigrant - this bill is a travesty, it is a slap in the face of everyone who has EVER done things legally, and it will exacerbate an already terrible security problem. VOTE NO ON CLOTURE!!!”

Anyone who’d like to copy all or part of it is welcome to do so. Let’s kill this bill!

[End Times Sentinel]

I called Boxer’s office, again posing as a Dem constituent... what I termed “closure”

Nice work Plutarch!

Owl_Eagle

If what I just wrote made you sad or angry,
it was probably just a joke.

[caphillbabe]

Here is a list of the 12 “fence-sitter” Senate contacts for EVERYONE to email regarding immigration. Many offices are putting calls straight to voicemail and they can just trash faxes (and letters take weeks to get through due to security). Hit Hill staff where they are so codependent - their Blackberries! Send email directly to staff - not just the generic Senate office mailbox. Contact their Chief of Staff, Legislative Director, and Press Secretary. Make your voice heard!!

For the Democrats, I would strongly suggest taking a pro-union/anti-illegal alien stance (i.e. “they are taking our jobs”) rather than using the conservative national security angle.

Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)
Chief of Staff
stephen_ward@bingaman.senate.gov

Legislative Director
trudy_vincent@bingaman.senate.gov

Counsel
sunalei_stewart@bingaman.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
jude_mccartin@bingaman.senate.gov

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
Chief of Staff
laura_schiller@boxer.senate.gov

Legislative Director
polly_trottenberg@boxer.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
natalie_ravitz@boxer.senate.gov

Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND)
Chief of Staff
bob_van_heuvelen@conrad.senate.gov

Legislative Director
tom_mahr@conrad.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
chris_thorne@conrad.senate.gov
sean_neary@conrad.senate.gov

Senator Carl Levin (D-MI)
Chief of Staff
david_lyles@levin.senate.gov

Legislative Director
rich_arenberg@levin.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
tara_andringa@levin.senate.gov

Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE)
Chief of Staff
tim_becker@bennelson.senate.gov

Legislative Director
christiana_gallagher@bennelson.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
david_dimartino@bennelson.senate.gov

Senator Jim Webb (D-VA)
Chief of Staff
paul_reagan@webb.senate.gov

Legislative Director
mike_sozan@webb.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
jessica_smith@webb.senate.gov

Senator Kit Bond (R-MO)
Chief of Staff
brian_klippenstein@bond.senate.gov

Legislative Director
kara_smith@bond.senate.gov

Communications Director
shana_marchio@bond.senate.gov

Senator Richard Burr (R-NC)
Chief of Staff
alicia_peterson-clark@burr.senate.gov
alicia_peterson-petersonclark@burr.senate.gov

Legislative Director
natasha_hickman@burr.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
laura_caudell@burr.senate.gov
mark_williams@burr.senate.gov

Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Chief of Staff
jenny_manley@cochran.senate.gov

Legislative Director
ta_hawks@cochran.senate.gov

Press Secretary
margaret_wicker@cochran.senate.gov
Margaret_mcphillips@cochran.senate.gov

Senator John Ensign (R-NV)
Chief of Staff
john_lopez@ensign.senate.gov

Legislative Director
pam_thiessen@ensign.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
tory_mazzola@ensign.senate.gov
jack_finn@ensign.senate.gov
don_tatro@ensign.senate.gov

Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH)
Chief of Staff
joel_maiola@gregg.senate.gov

Legislative Director
nancy_perkins@gregg.senate.gov

General Counsel
christopher_gahan@gregg.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
erin_rath@gregg.senate.gov

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Chief of Staff
patricia_knight@hatch.senate.gov

Legislative Director
jace_johnson@hatch.senate.gov

Deputy LD
chris_campbell@hatch.senate.gov

Counsel
bill_castle@hatch.senate.gov

Press Secretary/Communications Director
peter_carr@hatch.senate.gov