Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune and Earth's temperature

Geophysical Research Letters ^ | 19 April 2007 | Hammel & Lockwood

[jsh3180]

Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth's temperature

H. B. Hammel

Space Science Institute, Boulder, Colorado, USA

G. W. Lockwood

Lowell Observatory, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA

Abstract

Long-term photometric measurements of Neptune show variations of brightness over half a century. Seasonal change in Neptune's atmosphere may partially explain a general rise in the long-term light curve, but cannot explain its detailed variations. This leads us to consider the possibility of solar-driven changes, i.e., changes incurred by innate solar variability perhaps coupled with changing seasonal insolation. Although correlations between Neptune's brightness and Earth's temperature anomaly—and between Neptune and two models of solar variability—are visually compelling, at this time they are not statistically significant due to the limited degrees of freedom of the various time series. Nevertheless, the striking similarity of the temporal patterns of variation should not be ignored simply because of low formal statistical significance. If changing brightnesses and temperatures of two different planets are correlated, then some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment.

Received 14 November 2006; accepted 15 March 2007; published 19 April 2007.

[jsh3180]

OK, another paper detailing "global warming" on another planet. Gee, it says it may be due to "variations in the solar system environment. Who'd a thunk?

PS. title shortened to fit FR requirement

[jsh3180]

ping!

[Lurker]

Wow I'm glad it's Neptune.

I was afraid it was uranus that was causing GW.

L

[mkmensinger]

Wow. The sun might actually warm the earth...can you imagine!

[steveegg]

But, but but that's impossible; High Priest Algore Goracle and High Priestess "Dr." Heidi Cullen said the only cause of interplanetary warming is us eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeevil American conservatives </sarcasm_bloviated>

[Jonah Hex]

So, in order to stop global warming here on Earth, we have to bomb Neptune and the Neptune Men out of existence?

I'm up for that! ;-)

[libbybelle]

Now, if only someone would explain what I just read.

[syriacus]

The “Humans-Cause-Warming” folks are making a big push now. They need to beat out the spread of this news that solar warming is the culprit.

[syriacus]

Thanks for posting this.

[Red Badger]

Now, if only someone would explain what I just read.

Neptune's brightness has varied (+/-) over the past century. It might be caused by the sun making it warmer and colder..........

[bennowens]

This article is a bit suggestive.

[A Strict Constructionist]

“This article is a bit suggestive.”

Don’t tell me FR is becoming puritanical.

[Thermalseeker]

OK, another paper detailing "global warming" on another planet.

Has anybody compiled a list of links to the papers that have been produced regarding observed warming on other bodies in the solar system? I know warming has been observed on Mars and a couple of the moons of the gas giants, but I didn't save the links. I've got a Liberal neighbor I've been having an ongoing argument with about this and I'd love to see him choke on this aspect of the topic.

[Wuli]

ping

[roaddog727]

When’s he’s talking about “Limited Degrees of freedom”, he’s referring to a very small # of independant variables associated with the statistiscal model used in the analysis.

So, if you have a temperature model:

Tu (Temperature Uranus) = Ud (distance of Uranus from the Sun) + Sb (Solar Brightness),

You would only have 1 degree of freedom

Make sense?

[roaddog727]

Typically, for a good & meaningful model, you want to have no fewer than 3 independent to no more than 6 independent variables.

It should also minimize auto-correlation and be statistically significant in how well it predicts the dependent variable in question.

[Jagman]

Your costumes look ridiculous!

[PackerBronco]

When’s he’s talking about “Limited Degrees of freedom”, he’s referring to a very small # of independant variables associated with the statistiscal model used in the analysis.

Completely wrong.

The degrees of freedom are generally calculated by subtracting the number of independent variables in the model from the number of observations. By itself, the number of variables in the model do not tell you the degrees of freedom in the analysis.

BTW I didn't like what I read in that abstract. If the relationship is not statistically significant, it's not statistically significant. Words like "suggestive" in describing the relationship between the model and the data have no place in a scientific report.

[SirFishalot]

If only they could get those morons on Uranus to cut back on their toilet paper usage, this might not be happening. At least as the crow flies.

[UCANSEE2]

Yes. But not as much as you might imagine.

And the fluctuations of the sun are not the reason the Temperature, weather, shape of the Earth change over the millenia.

The Sun is also affected by an outside source, which causes peaks and valleys in it’s activity.

Going through the plane of the galaxy and being far away from the plane.

If the sun was causing all the Earth’s changes, then why is it that the Sun is farther from Earth in the summer, and closer to Earth in the winter?

Our whole solar system is on a merry go round circumnavigating the galaxy. We go up and down though the plane of the galaxy, and the plane is the area of highest radiation from the core of the galaxy.