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Rudy and the Republican Nomination ^ | 2 Feb 2007 | Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director

Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom

Rudy and the Republican Nomination

New York, Feb 2 -

To: Team Rudy
From: Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date: February 2, 2007
Re: Rudy and the Republican Nomination

Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.

Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.

According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:

The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).

In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”

In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.

The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.

Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:


Mayor Giuliani

Closest Competitor


California 33% 19% (Gingrich) ARG - Jan. 11-17
Florida 30% 16% (Gingrich) ARG - Jan. 4-9
Illinois 33% 24% (McCain) ARG - Jan. 11-14
Michigan 34% 24% (McCain) ARG - Jan. 4-7
Nevada 31% 25% (McCain) ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06
New Jersey 39% 21% (McCain) Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22
North Carolina 34% 26% (McCain) ARG - Jan. 11-15
Ohio 30% 22% (McCain) Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28
Pennsylvania 35% 25% (McCain) ARG Jan. 4-8
Texas 28% 26% (McCain) Baselice Jan. 17-21


Recent polling continues to suggest Mayor Giuliani is very well positioned within the party – particularly when compared to other potential Republican candidates – to win the nomination.

Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.

Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.

KEYWORDS: athleticsupporter; electionpresident; giuliani; giuliani2008; medialies; milking911; president; rudy; support
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To: Spiff; dirtboy; Ev; Hydroshock; Liz; Reagan Man; Antoninus; Dead Corpse; Sir Francis Dashwood

Note the personal attack against you @ post 65. Feel free to take whatever action you deem appropriate.

121 posted on 02/02/2007 5:39:04 PM PST by narses (St Thomas says "lex injusta non obligat.")
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To: Dark Skies

GA is for Newt. Newt has gravitaz.

122 posted on 02/02/2007 5:39:10 PM PST by mission9 (Be a citizen worth living for, in a Nation worth dying for...)
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To: narses

"LOL. Logic is clearly not your strong suit, is it? Gun-grabbing, cross-dressing babykillers are not mainstream GOP. Got it?"

See Posts 50 and 113.

123 posted on 02/02/2007 5:39:11 PM PST by My GOP (Conservatives are realistic and pragmatic!!)
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To: narses

"What military experience does your crossdressing candidate have?"

If that was the criterion of a good candidate, we would have supported Kerry, or even Weasley Clark over Bush in 2004. That criterion suggests we should support McCain today.

Reductio ad absurdum.

124 posted on 02/02/2007 5:39:30 PM PST by JHBowden (President Giuliani in 2008! Law and Order. Solid Judges. Free Markets. Killing Terrorists.)
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To: codercpc

Well, if they are this careless now, what will they be like if they ever get into office? Scary stuff.

125 posted on 02/02/2007 5:39:45 PM PST by TommyDale (If we don't put a stop to this global warming, we will all be dead in 10,000 years!)
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To: All

It's a sad sad day on FR when I have to scroll past a dozen preemptive jokes about what others are going to say to find some real debate (I gave up and just hit reply; I don't think it's possible on these threads anymore).

We all know who you're all talking about. You say the same things over and over to the same people over and over, often accusing them of saying the same things over and over. That said, I'm pretty sure that's a no-no around civilized parts such as these: personal attacks and Zinging-not-Pinging.

I know we're all older than 4 (my daughter's age), and even she isn't this goofy when she thinks I'm wrong!

126 posted on 02/02/2007 5:39:53 PM PST by cgk (Republicanism didn't make Conservatives a majority. Conservatism made Republicans a majority. [NEWT])
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To: JimFreedom

LOL. That's funny.

127 posted on 02/02/2007 5:40:27 PM PST by My GOP (Conservatives are realistic and pragmatic!!)
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To: Dark Skies

No military experience. Corrupt associates (Kerik, for example), cronyism run amock, liberalism run amock. Bad on core conservative values. Sorry, your support makes the word sad appropos.

128 posted on 02/02/2007 5:40:40 PM PST by narses (St Thomas says "lex injusta non obligat.")
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To: Jack Black

Type in Duncan Hunter and Defense Contracts. San Diego paper and USA have articles about it.

Was sent an email and reminded of the fact that Tinker AFB lost money to a contractor that Cunningham and Hunter wanted to get for a system the DoD didn't want. So I went searching on line and took less than 10 minutes to find most the details. I thought I had remembered what happened but I wanted to refresh my memory.

129 posted on 02/02/2007 5:41:00 PM PST by PhiKapMom (Broken Glass Republican -- Rudy/Newt -- Take back the House and Senate in 2008)
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To: trumandogz

We already HAVE a one party system. Do you really think GWB is a conservative??

130 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:01 PM PST by merry10
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To: JimFreedom

Only 1 in 5 Republicans know that Giuliani is pro-abortion and pro-civil unions for homosexuals Let's see what those favorability ratings look like when that number is 4 in 5.

131 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:04 PM PST by garv
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To: JHBowden
Bush had military experience, in spite of what the liberals claim. That you claim that is odd. As for the others you name, they have a lot in common with Rudy and the rest of the Eastern liberal establishment. No sale. No way.

The words of Jim Robinson on pushing a liberal like Rino Rudy.
132 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:24 PM PST by narses (St Thomas says "lex injusta non obligat.")
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To: narses
What military experience does your crossdressing candidate have?

None. But he is real good against homeless bums,porno shops, high profile mob figures and the squeege guys. At least when he isn't in court fighting ( using tax dollars)to keep his city a sanctuary for illegals and filing lawsuits against gun manufacturers. Real tough!

133 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:31 PM PST by beltfed308 (Democrats :Tough on Taxpayers, Soft on Terrorism)
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To: My GOP

"No, Rudy has said point blank, not grudglingly, that he is against gay marriage and that it is a state issue. And it is a state issue. The POTUS and no power over marriage at all!!! Which means the POTUS has the same amount of power over the issue as your local dog catcher. Think about it."

The concept of Federalism goes over the heads of Rudy haters. Believe me, you can explain it to them until you're blue in the face and they refuse to give an inch.

134 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:37 PM PST by Stag_Man (NEVER let the people draw their own conclusions. - DUmmie poster.)
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To: Dark Skies
Thanks. Same to you. But, even as I agree with you that rudy might do as well or better than others fighting the WoT, I just can't set aside his liberal views on my CORE, LIFE-or-death, and/or Constitutional issues.

Can't we find another candidate who is much more conservative, and just as likely to do a great, tough job in the WoT?

For instance, Duncan Hunter is very conservative and not only has military experience, but also has a son over there as we speak. Who could possibly understand, or have more of a vested interest in our success/victory over there than Hunter?

Certainly not rudy, who doesn't cut it on the three positives that Hunter has, and were mentioned above.

135 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:38 PM PST by DocH (Gun-grabbers, you can HAVE my guns... lead first.)
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To: narses

A fiscal, domestic, and foreign policy conservative that supports strict constructionist judges is bad?

136 posted on 02/02/2007 5:42:50 PM PST by My GOP (Conservatives are realistic and pragmatic!!)
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To: beltfed308

Great. Thanks, but no thanks.

137 posted on 02/02/2007 5:43:13 PM PST by narses (St Thomas says "lex injusta non obligat.")
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To: narses
What military experience does your crossdressing candidate have?

*adjusting my Marilyn Monroe wig* He took on the mob...and won. He took on Wall St...and won. He took on crime in NYC...and won.

Terrorists better run and go to ground. Rudy will dig em up and put em on trial.

Dubya has done a fine job...Rudy will prosecute this war the way it should have been!!!

138 posted on 02/02/2007 5:43:33 PM PST by Dark Skies ("He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that" ... John Stuart Mill)
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To: PhiKapMom

I don't view this as a negative. And I don't view it as a scandal. He's been aggressively pro high tech weapons. Hes' from San Diego. He represents active duty military (lots in his area), retired military and some local military contractors. Saying the Pentagon didn't want stuff when Xlinton was Pres and appointing One-Worlders and Bilderbergers like Wesley "Weasel" Clark to say what they did want is a PLUS.

The only articles I could find were ones from Left Wing Rags, like the Ultra Liberal paper in San Diego which has done everything except hide a reporter under his bed to discredit him. And it hasn't worked.

It looks and smells like a bullsh*t charge to me. Which is not to say Hunter has much of a chance, he doesn't. The big media won't even mention his name.

You'll get two CFR vetted candidates, just like always. Thanks for playing.

139 posted on 02/02/2007 5:43:37 PM PST by Jack Black
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To: DocH

See my Posts 50 and 113.

140 posted on 02/02/2007 5:43:48 PM PST by My GOP (Conservatives are realistic and pragmatic!!)
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