Virginia Senate Race is Called (vanity)

VA Senate Race ^ | 11.07.2006 | Virginia Senate Race

[rface]

Virginia is reporting 92% precincts in .... so I am calling the Virginia Senate race.

Allen leads 1,052,606
Webb 1,033,221

......this is a 19,000 vote lead.

I am making it official

ALLEN WINS!

Virginia Race

[rudy45]

OK, it looks like all but one Arlington County precinct has reported. There are still 3 Farifax County precincts left.

On the other hand, NONE of the Craig County precincts have reported. When I look at the map of the state:

http://www.vaco.org/ABOUT%20VACo/Virginia%20Map%20with%20Links%20to%20County%20Websites.php

I'm thinking Craig County will go for Allen (I hope).

I'm thinking it looks good for Allen.

[Williams]

Fox analyist Michael Barone says Allen lead likely to go to zero and be a contested race. There will be a recount in Va by law if win is under 1%.

[I Hired Craig Livingstone]

I assume one of them has to reach 50% or they have a runoff?

No. Most votes wins.

[SoftballMominVA]

Craig should go to Allen, but it's a small county. I would imagine no more than 10k votes (?) with about 60-40 to Allen-Webb.

Allen up 13k votes with about 100 precincts to go

[VA Voter]

VA SEN [95.58% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,096,537 49.70%
D- WEBB 1,053,334 49.10%

[damper99]

You're counting the living population as the pool for voters to come from. There's a great number of nonexistant voters to consider in Arlington.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

14K up with 95.66% reporting

[VA Voter]

VA SEN [95.66% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,097,708 49.71%
D- WEBB 1,083,988 49.09%

[PUGACHEV]

Those districts with significant percentages not reported, like Richmond City, Petersburg, are ~75/25% in favor of Webb. Other counties like Fairfax are 99% reported, but are so large that the missing votes will swing another 2k votes to Webb. Prince William Co. is slightly in favor of Webb, with only 35% reported. I've done the math (roughly) from the VA unofficial totals, and extrapolated the final results based on the % unreported and reported Webb/Allen split. The result is Allen wins by about 3,000 votes -- not a comfortable margin.

[damper99]

Allen's lead is shrinking. If Webb continues to pull 3:2 on in, he'll defeat Allen by a handful. It may come down to the absentees.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

12K up with 95.78%

[Verginius Rufus]

Craig County had 1706 votes for Bush and 901 votes for Kerry in 2004, for a total just over 2600 votes--but almost a 2-1 ratio for Bush. Obviously Allen is running behind Bush's percentage of the vote in 2004, but it would seem likely he would still get over 50% of the vote there. Of course it is one of the counties bordering Roanoke Co., where Webb is apparently doing well.

[Verginius Rufus]

Do we know how many absentee ballots were cast, and when they will be counted?

[SuziQ]

Neither passed 50%. Runoff?

They don't have to get more than 50% in the final race, just a plurality. That's how x42 was able to be President even though he only got 43% of the vote in his first Presidential election.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

12K up with 96.28% reporting

[VA Voter]

VA SEN [96.28% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,099,840 49.67%
D- WEBB 1,087,576 49.12%

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

12K up with 96.56% reporting

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

13K up with 96.60% reporting

[BusiDad]

Talk about calling it early... MSM already has Cardin winning but with 41% reporting Carding is behind 48% to 51%. FOXNews is already running a pic of Cardin...

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

they still wont pull back even though WaPo just backtracked.