Posted on 11/07/2006 2:59:53 PM PST by proud_yank
Nov. 7, 2006— Will it rain on the Democrats' parade?
Although most experts predict heavy voter turnout in today's midterm elections, some of the most hotly contested races in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New Jersey could be affected by bad weather. And some experts say that, based on history, Republicans should pray for rain.
Brad Gomez, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia, examined weather data and its impact on elections in a study titled "The Effect of Bad Weather on Voter Turnout and Partisan Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2000."
Gomez concluded that when it rains, it pours at the polls for Democrats. Gomez found that "rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under 1 percent per inch," and that every inch of rain cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.
As one example, election officials in Massachusetts recorded one of the lowest voter turnouts (64.7 percent) in recent history on a day in 1974 when rain poured down through the morning and afternoon.
But an exception to the weather theory is a nonpresidential election like today's: In the 1994 midterm elections, mild weather failed to dampen the prospects for Republican candidates, who swept both houses of Congress.
Here's a rundown of the weather forecast for some of today's most-heated races:
In Montana, where Democratic candidate Jon Tester is locked in a tight race with incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, heavy rain is expected throughout most of the state.
In Ohio, the bellwether of recent elections, rain is expected in Cincinnati, Toledo and Cleveland, with more severe showers in the more rural southeastern part of the state.
In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum, showers are expected throughout the state this afternoon.
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Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been a RYMB image posted yet!!!!
LOL!
It is Karl, of course. My brain is just fried from trying to figure out those totally complicated election ballots. It took me ten minutes just to figure out how to get the cap off the pen. (This excuse has been approved by the Democratic National Committee for Idiotic Voters)
lol
Rovian Weather Machine bttt
whats the old saying sugar melts and crap floats and they certainly will float
hey, p_y! We voted before breakfast this morning. Minus 4 degrees. Daniel pledged Allegiance to the little flag on the table, and a good time was had by all.
Awesome! Gotta love little 'Patriots in Training' LOL
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