www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Posted on 11/02/2006 8:52:38 AM PST by finnman69
www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Crystal Ball 2006: THE PREDICTIONSCampaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"
November 2, 2006
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!
Sure, we could easily be fooled by more than a few outcomes in this regard on Election Night, and we would probably place the odds of this historical unlikelihood's occurrence at no better than 50/50. But the very notion such a scenario is within the realm of possibilities is a testament to the lopsidedness of this year's theaters of battle.
If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed towards devastating losses. And though candidates continue to stress various issues, only one has truly come to define our politics this year: war. Future historians may well look back on this wave election as "The Iraq Midterm," much we look back on the 1966 and 1974 elections as "The Vietnam Midterm" and "The Watergate Midterm" respectively.
Just as in 1975, it is likely that a substantially Democratic freshman class will be sworn into Congress in 2007 (though 2007's won't be nearly as big). Some entering members may prove "one term wonders" and others may show staying power. Most we will have seen coming. But if history is any guide, a handful will have scored fluke victories with under-the-radar, last-minute momentum. Wave elections are volatile, and in our years of publishing, we have never gazed into a stormier Crystal Ball.
Here's our best reading from the perspective of today, and as always, we're sticking our neck out on every race--no fence-straddling allowed--even if "he who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass!"
No one credibly argues that Democrats aren't going to win at least 3 or 4 Senate seats, bringing the GOP down to 51 or 52 seats. But increasingly it looks like they will win five (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Rhode Island, in that order, and at least one of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee). To get the magic 6 they need for control, Democrats need 2 of those 3. Gravy would be all 3, giving them a 52 seat majority.
The Crystal Ball sees either 5 or 6 seats going to the Democrats, resting party control of the Senate squarely on the edge of the butter knife. Are there places the GOP could gain a seat? The only nearly even-money bet is New Jersey, followed closely by Maryland, but both states usually disappoint Republicans in the end. Long-shot possibilities are Michigan, Nebraska, and Washington, with none looking likely at the moment.
Several weeks ago, we collectively referred to the races in Missouri, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia as the "Fundamental Five." But with New Jersey and Rhode Island looking less likely to fall to the GOP, we might as well refer to the remaining great triumvirate as the "Threshold Three." Whichever party wins the heart of these races will win control, and as of now, here are our best bets:
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows (
) indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows (
) signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
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Solid R (7) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (1) | Toss-up (3) | Leans D (2) | Likely D (1) | Solid D (1) |
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IN (Lugar) | AZ (Kyl) | VA (Allen) |
MT (Burns) |
OH (DeWine) |
PA (Santorum) |
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ME (Snowe) | MO (Talent) | RI (Chafee) |
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MS (Lott) | TN (OPEN) |
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NV (Ensign) |
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TX (Hutchison) |
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UT (Hatch) |
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WY (Thomas) |
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WV (Byrd) |
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WI (Kohl) |
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NY (Clinton) |
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NM (Bingaman) |
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ND (Conrad) |
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MA (Kennedy) |
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HI (Akaka) |
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FL (Nelson) |
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WA (Cantwell) | DE (Carper) |
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NE (Nelson) | CT (Lieberman*) |
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MN (OPEN) |
VT (OPEN) |
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| NJ (Menendez) |
MD (OPEN) |
MI (Stabenow) | CA (Feinstein) | |||||
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| Solid R (0) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (0) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (1) | Likely D (4) | Solid D (12) |
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Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 18 (out of 45 held)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +5 to +6 D
Click here for individual Senate race analysis.
In a volatile election year such as 2006 (and volatile is a big understatement), the playing field can expand quickly, and it only expands more rapidly closer to the election. Our list of truly competitive House seats is now up to about 60, and its composition only vaguely resembles the target lists of 30 to 40 both we and party committees adhered to in the summer and early autumn. Lucky for us, we don't have to shell out any money to add a new race to the Crystal Ball's competitive list!
For leaders of party committees, though, an expanding field is a complex nightmare and seeking to plug in to every district legitimately in play is like playing a game of whack-a-mole. They must plot and re-plot to cover as many contestable races as possible without spreading resources too thin. The side that adapts with the most speed and agility usually comes out on top.
We at the Crystal Ball have this creeping suspicion: the decision of both parties to go to bat in the neighborhood of 50 target districts means that Democrats will likely win more than enough races to take control (+23 to 30), but will end up leaving several of their 2nd or 3rd tier candidates stranded on 2nd or 3rd base with 47 or 48 percent of the vote on Election Night. Below are our best bet predictions for the current "toss-up" races; for the rest of our forecasts, see the following HotRace Readings chart.
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats in Play: 81 (151 Safe/Solid R)
Democratic Held Seats in Play: 9 (194 Safe/Solid D)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +24 to +30 D
Click here for individual House race analysis.
The part of the election that is arguably most important gets the least coverage, and here the Democrats are nearly guaranteed to do very well. Don't forget that there are nine open REPUBLICAN governorships and just one open DEMOCRATIC governorship (Iowa). Most change occurs in open races, ergo, the Democrats have had a superb chance to make gains from the beginning. And they've capitalized on it.
The Crystal Ball projects that Democrats will easily claim a majority of the statehouses after the votes are counted, moving from 22 today to 28-30. The prized pickup for Democrats will be Ohio: although the Empire State's population dwarfs the Buckeye State's, Ohio towers over New York in presidential importance and a big win there will give the state's Democrats newfound confidence and institutional thrust moving forward towards 2008. Colorado and Arkansas will also be key Democratic pickups; Maryland and Massachusetts are guaranteed to vote Democratic in 2008 so gubernatorial gains there won't matter as much for the White House.
Note that the endangered Democratic incumbent governors may all win--not because they are strong, but because the GOP is so weak this year (think Michigan, Oregon, Maine, Wisconsin, and Illinois). Also keep in mind that even strong GOP governors may lose simply because of the R next to their name (think Maryland and Minnesota). Here are our best bets:
(Note: These calls are susceptible to change as events warrant!)
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
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Solid R (6) | Likely R (4) | Leans R (5) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (1) | Likely D (4) | Solid D (1) |
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CT (Rell) | AL (Riley) | AK (OPEN) | MN (Pawlenty) |
MD (Ehrlich) |
AR (OPEN) | NY (OPEN) |
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HI (Lingle) | CA (Schwarzenegger) |
ID (OPEN) | CO (OPEN) |
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NE (Heineman) | GA (Perdue) | FL (OPEN) | MA (OPEN) |
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SD (Rounds) | SC (Sanford) | NV (OPEN) |
OH (OPEN) |
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VT (Douglas) | RI (Carcieri) |
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TX (Perry) | |
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WY (Freudenthal) | |||||||
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TN (Bredesen) | |||||||
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| WI (Doyle) |
PA (Rendell) | |||||||
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| MI (Granholm) |
OK (Henry) | |||||||
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NM (Richardson) | |||||||
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NH (Lynch) | |||||||
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OR (Kulongoski) | IL (Blagojevich) | KS (Sebelius) | AZ (Napolitano) | ||||
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| Solid R (0) | Likely R (0) | Leans R (0) | Toss-up (1) | Leans D (5) | Likely D (1) | Solid D (7) |
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Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held)
The Brutal B - November 2, 2006: +6 to +8 D
Click here for individual Governor race analysis.
The Democrats will have to TRY to lose this election. Yes, they've had a lot of experience in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sen. John Kerry is doing his best to provide two of those election years in a row (Brilliant remark, John, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in '04 and why you're not going to be the Democratic nominee again in '08).
We are probably headed for a familiar period of divided government, just we had in 1947-48, 1955-60, 1981-92, 1993-2000, and June 2001-2002. Six Presidents have experienced divided government since World War II, including George W. Bush via the Senate for 18 months. Life goes on. Americans in many ways like to build in more checks and balances to the Founders' model of separation of powers. Dividing power reduces the potential for abuse of power, or so the theory goes, and since many Americans aren't crazy about either major party, the idea of letting them fight it out between the branches, or between the houses of a bicameral Congress, appeals to millions of citizens.
And fight they will. A short and maybe nonexistent period of "bipartisan working together," which may be measured in hours or minutes, will be followed by a two-year campaign to break the deadlock one way or another in the elections of '08. And your Crystal Ball will be with you all the way to catalogue the fun. Happy election, everyone!
NOTE: We'll be back in your in-box very early on Monday morning with any last-minute alterations to the predictions list. Late bombshells, scandals, and other developments can always alter the picture. We've cautioned a thousand times in every medium: "Don't pull down the curtain on an election until election day!" We really do believe that.
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Damn, that's one brutal outlook. I think he's a bit pessimistic, expecially where the Senate is concerned, but I suppose we'll know for sure this time next week.
In 2004 out of the 535 races that he mentioned 99% of them were known and sure results and did not need Larry Sabato predictions. It was the remaining 1% that was contested and Larry Sabato screwed it all, including the most important of all races, the Presidential race.
I agree completely. The MSM helped Bill Clinton celebrate 4 years of economic growth after he was in office only 2 years. That from a guy who campaigned on how awful the economy was doing before the election. Things like the housing market bust will be spun by the MSM as a great opportunity for poor and middle-class people to buy homes. The Dems can do no wrong in the eyes of the MSM.
Revenge Will Be Mine self-ping
Jeveritas, you are correct. Sabato blew the biggest and easiest race to predict, on election day of all times. His worst year was 2002 when he blew over 6 Senate Races.
Don't count on it.
I predict that if the republicans are winning by slim margins, the dems will tie up the results in the courts long enough for votes to be fabricated in their favor, for example in New Mexico.
The democrat SOS is refusing to use an outside auditor for the canvass, and is going to do it herself, and Richardson and the dem legislature took the state back to paper ballots because it's easier to find boxes of "misplaced" votes in janitor's closets (as in 2000).
Look for renewed vigor in fraud by the dems.
BTW, I posted in another thread that the dems failed to get the 1 million new latino voter registrations they had planned on...only got 146,000.
I saw your post on this one, excellent find.
Jveritas buddy, it would be nice if Rove had Sunday before the election suprise in his pouch, like the DEMS did with the Bush DUI in 2000. Many think that shaved 5% off Bush's victory over Gore.
I think that we may see a surprise in the next few days, but we need to remind ourselves that Saddam is going to be sentenced this Sunday, this by itself can be a big boost for the Republicans two days before the elections. I also hope that President Bush will address the nation that night in a prime time speech and that the democrats will do a rebuttal afterward to further destroy any chance they have to win the House or the Senate.
JERVITAS EXCELLENT!!!!! I forgot that Sadaam was Sunday. I hope DNC lawyers go to Baghdad for a delay.
Bush needs to seize on this. Insurgents will get the orders from Howard Dean to find the courthouse.
That's true, but only because republicans aren't fulfilling a conservative agenda.
If we were, people would be pleased with the results and see no reason to vote democrat.
2004 was much easier to pick than this. Most races were in fact showing wide margins.
In this race not only are large numbers of polls showing virtual ties, a lot of polls are contradictory, and the polls that are used to set the underlying statistics to adjust the voter polls are also skewing wildly back and forth.
Either the electorate is all over the map from day to day, or the polls simply cannot be trusted to provide accurate information.
No matter what happens, most people picking based on polls are likely to do much worse than they did in 2004. This is going to be like picking NFL games or the NCAA basketball tournament, almost anything can happen.
I'm very worried about my own state, and we need to make sure that every person we know will vote correctly gets to the polls on Tuesday. That's how we will win the election.
Well, that is one important thing -- in many cases where the democrats might win, they have run very conservative candidates against republicans that had ethical problems.
I could see several of those guys switching parties in a couple of years. If they vote with Pelosi, they WILL be gone in two years, they only have a chance now because conservatives don't really like the stink of corruption (the democrats only dislike it when its a republican).
Right Charles. The same reason there would be no impeachment. No DEM in a GOP district could afford to vote for it.
Some of these Conservative DEMS will not vote for Pelosi as Speaker, they will be punished, and will switch. Gene Taylor etc.....
you did not answer my question
what led you to believe I am a "Sabato lover"?
He may be biased, maybe less so than Zogby (Zogby was much worse), but his predictions have not been THAT off.
Sabato Senate 2004:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/senate/
November 1, 2004 Update: Republicans hold the Senate and add to their treasure trove of seats. We project 53-46, with only the Louisiana seat probably headed for a December run-off. If we are surpsised on Tuesday it will be because Republican David Vitter has crossed the 50-percent mark giving the GOP 54 seats in the upper chamber.
Actual result 55-48
November 1, 2004 Update:
Not much change one way or the other. Republicans could add a few seats (+3), as we predict, or drop a few seats, but they are going to be in charge unless turnout is enormous, producing upsets from coast to the coast in the few available competitive races.
Actual result GOP+2
And, yes, before you spout off about someone being a seminar poster, perhaps you should review their posting histpry.
In October 2002 Sabato had the GOP gaining 1 Senate seat, they acutally gained 2.
My gut, GOP GOTV efforts will pay off heavily and Kerry's big mouth will also help fire up the GOP base. I expect polls to tighten up in 2 more days. Bottom line is I think we hold the Senate, but the House will be close and will require amazing GOTV effort.
a contrasting analysis to Sabato's based on internals:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzViMTNkMDM5NWJiZmNhYTVhZWY0ZDUwNWE1MjY2NDM=
In the final days I will be bothering my elections guru for his latest take knowing how prescient he has been in the past. We just spoke and his experience tells him: This not a nationwide sweep. To explain himself, he starts talking in detail about races up and down the ballot, e.g. he's keeping an eye on an auditor's race in PA. He's that kind of entrails expert.
He sees a major distinction with 1994 "when Repubicans were winning most offices in 40 states, while Democrats were doing the same in 5 and the remaining 5 were tied or mixed." This year, Republicans are dominating in 21 states, Democrats in 22 with 7 tied or mixed. For example, Republicans are in trouble in PA with governor and senate race but Republicans might not lose a majority of the congressional delegation and will hold the state senate. Though the Republicans might lose 6 or 7 Governorships (they currently hold 28) they'll hang on to state senates in NY, PA, OH, MI, WI, MO, AZ, TX, FL, GA and KY. He notes that even if Repubicans lose 3 House seats in Indiana and lose the majority of the delegation, they will win the majority of the popular vote for Congress. His general bottom line is that Democratic wins will be "shallow."
His specifics at the moment (given that he is moving races in and out of his categories every day): He has 13 GOP House seats as "goners" in ths order: TX-22 OPEN, AZ-8 OPEN, CO-7 OPEN, PA-10 Sherwood, PA-7 Welson, OH-18 OPEN, IN-8 Hostettler, IN-2 Chocola, NY-24 OPEN, IA-1 OPEN, OH-15 Pryce, NM-1 Wilson, and NC-11 Taylor. He once had 20 seats in this category buts credits Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman with "buy-backs" that rescued seats once over the cliff. (e.g. He thinks there is new life in NY- Reynolds, IN-Sodrel, and PA-Gerlach, MN-6). His "super-vulnerable" (i.e. on the verge of lost) House seats number 12 and they include FL-3, CT-4, FL-16, IN-9, PA-6, CT- Johnson, KY Northrup and IL-6. He figures you have to expect Republicans to lose half of these - so they are down at least 19. Given that he has 42 total seats in play that result would be a victory of sorts. (I said "of sorts").
He sees Democrats winning Senate seats in Ohio, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania and is "sure we will win" in Virginia, Missouri and Montana. He thinks Corker holds TN and Menendez holds NJ. The math is really hard in Maryland, but there is hope for Republicans
Sabato's last prediction in 2004 showed a tight Bush win, also wrong.
Sabato was predicting a kerry win back in August of 2004.
I think you are mistaken about Sabato predicting a Kerry landslide on Election day 2004, and have found nothing to back up yopur claim.
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