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GOP Chair: 'I Certainly Haven't Seen a Free Fall' (Mehlman on Why GOP Keeps Congress)
US News & World Report ^ | 10/10/06 | Will Sullivan

Posted on 10/12/2006 7:50:51 AM PDT by TonyInOhio

On new polls suggesting that the Republicans could be, in the words of some analysts, in free fall

Let me first say I do think that we are in a very challenging environment. I think that the situation with [Rep. Mark] Foley has made it even more challenging, but ... I have not seen a significant impact in most of the races around the country and I certainly haven't seen a free fall.

The three issues that I think we're dealing with [in the polls]: first of all is the partisanship of the electorate. In the last 25 years, the electorate has ranged from plus-4 Democrat to plus-2 Republican in '02. In the most recent poll's partisanship, USA/Gallup is plus-9 Democratic electorate, ABC News is plus-11 Democratic electorate, CBS/New York Times plus-5, Newsweek plus-8, Time plus-8, AP/Ipsos plus-8. So, every one of these polls has an electorate that looks more Democratic than any electorate has looked in 25 years.

Second, the Gallup specifically is the outlier in the change in the generic ballot. The Pew poll that came out recently showed no change in the generic ballot since the Foley scandal; other national polls have shown on average a 2-point dip, the Gallup showed a 23-point dip, which I don't think is convincing.

The third issue of course is the relevance of the national polls in predicting House races and the challenge that Democrats always have is that our voters are more efficiently distributed. You saw that in the recent battleground that came out between [pollsters] Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas, which showed an 8-point Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. But in the Republican districts that the Democrats have to win to win back Congress, it was even. In the Democratic districts, it was a 21-point Democratic advantage.


TOPICS: Editorial; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: congress; gopcontrol; mehlman; polls
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To: NaughtiusMaximus

I caught CNN the other evening for the first time in ages. Jack Cafferty had an e-mail segment called, "Advice for the GOP." Every e-mail he read was from a moonbat, saliviating over the Republican loss of Congress. And CNN wonders why they're losing viewers?


21 posted on 10/12/2006 9:42:33 AM PDT by RedRover (REAL MEN VOTE "IREY"!)
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To: concerned about politics
("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")

Absolutely one of the best I have seen yet.............

:}

22 posted on 10/12/2006 9:56:33 AM PDT by AwesomePossum
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To: Matchett-PI

Thank you for the two threads. They were even worse than I thought. You know Ken is doing great things for the Republican Party and I bet those KOS guys are just jealous that their democratic weirdo guy (can't think of his name at the moment) is seriously screwing up and might even make them lose seats. If I was Ken (whether he is gay or not) I would sue those idiots for following him around and asking questions that he has already answered (he does not have to answer the question for one, but even the answer he gave should be enough). I am so glad that democrats are self distructive in their elections. As much as they try, they just can't find that story or event that will stick and allow victory!!!! I was to be honest one of those that wanted gridlock with Republicans to be head of Senate and House (ONLY for fiscal reasons), but after the last two weeks, I hope that Republicans get 100 seats in the Senate and 435 seats in the House (lol).


23 posted on 10/12/2006 10:09:16 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: TonyInOhio

I sure hope he's right. Terry McAwful was way off on his predictions when he was chairman of the DNC. But then, with McAwful, it is hard to tell if he was just deluded or lying through his teeth as usual.


24 posted on 10/12/2006 10:15:21 AM PDT by soccermom
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To: LS

It wasn't clear from Melman's statement if they truly are "oversampling" Dems or if more people are claiming to be Dems, which results in them being sampled more.


25 posted on 10/12/2006 10:17:16 AM PDT by soccermom
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To: napscoordinator
I read somewhere (no source sorry) that Ken Mehlman was going to be either the first or second name mentioned in the next few weeks that the Rogers guy is going to "kick out of the closet". I didn't give it much concern which is why I don't even remember the source.

This was the primary complaint when Mehlman was named years ago. How ironic it would be if his sexual habits became an issue and helped seal a defeat in the election?

The GOP can't claim it wasn't warned about this stuff...
26 posted on 10/12/2006 10:21:39 AM PDT by Antoninus (Ruin a Democrat's day...help re-elect Rick Santorum.)
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To: napscoordinator

You're welcome. There are only two _viable_ political parties. In only one of those two parties do conservatives have any voice at all. Third-party voters or those who sit home are actually casting their votes for DemocRATS. They are short-sighted and in reality, are undercutting whatever progress we have been able to make.


27 posted on 10/12/2006 10:31:43 AM PDT by Matchett-PI (To have no voice in the Party that always sides with America's enemies is a badge of honor.)
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To: TonyInOhio

This is a slow motion version of the Kerry Winning exit poll strategy. Tell everyone that the rats are unstoppably winning and the voters will resign to it and stay home or join the bandwagon. But we had the internet to challenge and dissapate that garbage and Bush won easily in FLA, and other places where those polls said he could not win.

Everything like this is someone's plan. We just need plans to overcome their plans.


28 posted on 10/12/2006 10:40:02 AM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: TonyInOhio

Good.

I can screwm till my lungs ache that the polls are junk, but the skittish Reps on the Hill won't listen. They'll probably listen to Melhman who has real internals rather then push polls to back up the fact the MSM is pushing propaganda.


29 posted on 10/12/2006 10:40:06 AM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: soccermom
No, more people aren't claiming to be Dems.

Here in OH, it's stunning. I've walked two different precincts in older Kettering, near UD, which should be HEAVILY Dem. Three out of four houses are GOP. I've only seen ONE Strickland sign---dozens of Blackwell signs.

Spoke to my supervisor about the utter absence of any walkers, ground game, etc. She said this is and ongoing, amazing thing that the Dems have ZERO ground game and ZERO walkers!!! Do you get the significance of this? Our research shows that personal contact, even through a lit drop, is the second best way to get a vote (a phone call is the best). We've dropped close to 200,000 pieces of lit in OH for Blackwell in the last three weeks.

30 posted on 10/12/2006 10:45:39 AM PDT by LS
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To: Dilbert56
Good analysis.

The Dems and their pet pollsters (which is almost ALL pollsters) are attempting a full court press to demoralize Republican voters.

This demoraliation campaign worked...almost...back in 2000, when the MSM declared AlGore the "winner" of Florida's electoral votes. Based on what? Exit POLLS.

Between 10,000 and 15,000 Bush voters in the Florida panhandle --who hadn't voted yet-- gave up and went home without voting upon hearing that "news."

Even Democrat pollster Bob Beckel confirmed those numbers in his post-election analysis.

31 posted on 10/12/2006 10:49:44 AM PDT by shhrubbery! (Max Boot: Joe Wilson has sold more whoppers than Burger King)
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To: LS
Translation: "Every one of these polls is lying because they are oversampling Dems."

Among other pollster tricks, all having the effect and obvious design of boosting the Rats and attempting to discourage GOPers.

32 posted on 10/12/2006 10:51:13 AM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg

Is that the same Mehlman who said that conservatives favor candidates the support "comprehensive" immigration reform over securing our borders??


33 posted on 10/12/2006 10:55:20 AM PDT by samadams2000 (Somebody important make....THE CALL!)
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To: LS

This is an ongoing debate in the polling community - should they control for party affiliation? Many (like Gallup) feel that party affiliation is not a fixed thing, and people switch back and forth between calling themselves members of one party or another. That's why you see a lot of insane whipsaws in Gallup. Others, like Rasmussen and Zogby, control for party affiliation.


34 posted on 10/12/2006 10:58:45 AM PDT by Henry Wilson
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To: Henry Wilson
Yah, but my point is the ALL the polls are screwed this season. I'm simply not seeing it on the ground. Realize, I'm in THE contested county of Ohio---Bush barely lost it, lost it bigger in 2000. I'm seeing NO signs of a Strickland/Brown surge. Quite the contrary, all the momentum seems to be with DeWine and Blackwell.

I'm talking to pollsters and strategists in PA and they are seeing the same thing. So these pollsters like Ras and Mason-Dixon this time around are missing something big. I don't know why, but I'm here to tell you they ain't gettin' it. For most of the polls, whatever they say, I do a 10% adjustment: take the Dem down 5% and move the Republican up 5%. But some polls are so silly that even that adjustment doesn't give you an accurate number.

35 posted on 10/12/2006 11:04:23 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS

This will probably be a very low turnout election. Whenever there is a lot of mudslinging (a la Foley), the non-aligned voters get turned off and often don't bother to vote at all.

Look for the Dems to pull some last minute race-baiting to try and help with black turnout.


36 posted on 10/12/2006 11:08:42 AM PDT by Henry Wilson
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To: Henry Wilson
No. That's another myth. We had good turnout in 2002, and this is the SAME GROUND GAME as 2004---the 72-hour campaign. Rove has figured this out. We contact, re-contact, re-contact.

It will be a low turnout on the part of the Dems, that's for sure.

37 posted on 10/12/2006 11:10:25 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS

Dems don't have as much Soros money this year.


38 posted on 10/12/2006 11:22:56 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Drill ANWR, Personal Accounts NOW.)
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To: CPT Clay
I suspect Soros is playing his own game, and has used the Dems more than they used him.

We need to keep an eye on him.
39 posted on 10/12/2006 11:32:25 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: LS

Gawd, I hope you're right!


40 posted on 10/12/2006 11:41:25 AM PDT by soccermom
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