I'm talking to pollsters and strategists in PA and they are seeing the same thing. So these pollsters like Ras and Mason-Dixon this time around are missing something big. I don't know why, but I'm here to tell you they ain't gettin' it. For most of the polls, whatever they say, I do a 10% adjustment: take the Dem down 5% and move the Republican up 5%. But some polls are so silly that even that adjustment doesn't give you an accurate number.
This will probably be a very low turnout election. Whenever there is a lot of mudslinging (a la Foley), the non-aligned voters get turned off and often don't bother to vote at all.
Look for the Dems to pull some last minute race-baiting to try and help with black turnout.