New polling on the Irey-Murtha race [It's a Horserace]

Redstate ^ | Oct 3, 2006 | Redstate

[RobFromGa]

New polling on the Irey-Murtha race

PA-12 is shaping up to be something of a horserace.

When the Irey campaign did preliminary polling last spring, the results were not encouraging. The 30-year incumbant in the PA-12 seat, John Murtha, led the little-known Diana Irey by thirty points. Mr. Murtha was emerging as the liberal conscience of the Iraq war, and promised to gain ever more power and influence as part of the House Democratic leadership. He has high-profile influential friends and a bully pulpit provided by a compliant national media that gives him a regular spot on the Sunday shows.

If I were Commissioner Irey I might have considered throwing in the towel and going to the beach for the summer. Fortunately, she did no such thing.

Graphic courtesy of Vets4Irey

Read on...

Ms. Irey rolled up her sleeves and got to work. She has gained some recognition on her own as a staunch supporter of the armed forces, the mission in Iraq, an advocate for rigorous immigration policies and a fiscal conservative. She has also been drawing attention to Mr. Murtha's many failings. And she's producing results. The campaign has just commissioned another poll by Public Opinion Strategies and Ms. Irey has closed the gap to ten points as the race now stands at 55%-45%. She gained ten points and brought Mr. Murtha down ten--and the momentum is all in her favor.

Commissioner Irey's mission over the next five weeks is to keep shining a bright light on Mr. Murtha's disgraceful record while articulating her own platform. The POS poll included some interesting numbers on eleven issues that make voters less likely to vote for Mr. Murtha by as much as 57% (a list is appended below)--and when voters read about these issues, Mr. Murtha's numbers drop into the low 40s. It's incumbant on all of us who want to see Ms. Irey in Mr. Murtha's chair come January to help her spread the word that Mr. Murtha is self-interested and venal, and willingly steps on the backs of his former fellow service members to hoist his substantial bulk up the political ladder. And fortunately, the Irey campaign is no longer a lone voice in the media wilderness. She's getting some assistance from a rather unlikely source--no less than the New York Times, which has in the past held Mr. Murtha up as a moral authority on Iraq, yesterday headlined his political "horsetrading" motivated by the desire to increase his personal prestige and bring more pork (from whatever source) to his district rather than by principle or fiscal responsibility. Major television outlets, such as Fox's Hannity and Colmes show, have picked up the story.

The momentum in this race is with Diana Irey. She is poised to win if we all help, and here are eleven excellent reasons to go to her website and donate some time and money:

[smoothsailing]

Freep-Mail incoming!

[dixiechick2000]

Jumping jiminy!


GO IREY!


Thank you for the pings!

[dixiechick2000]

ROTFLOLOLOL!


I hope she beats the tar outta him. ;o)

[DollyCali]

oh, thanks for the ping... I am here for the party but exhaused.. just got in for evening & am ready to crash

[mbraynard]

The push questions did not go so great. Only one of eleven is over 50%. I hope they asked some more effective questions that didn't get shared over the allies on the internet tubes.

The most effective questions were all anti-corruption. I hope Irey focuses more on this than the war stuff outside the demos that really respond to this (vets+families). Unfortunately she is probably going to ride a tide that will hurt Santorum.

[WeDontKnowJack]

I was curious about your comment regarding the value of the "push" questions. I went back and found the original posting of the survey memo, which can be found on RedState: New Polling on the Irey-Murtha Race.

And here are two other blogs reporting it: Hot Air and Right Angle.

I used to work in politics, a long time ago. It's been years since I worked a campaign, but if I remember correctly, the "push" question value threshold is 30 or 35 percent (just can't remember which it is). Any "push" question that registers better than 30 or 35 percent movement away from one candidate and toward the other is deemed a good attack.

So as I read these "push" questions, it seems the Irey campaign's biggest problem here is focus. They've got 11 different lines of attack that work. But they don't have the time or the money to land blows on all eleven. Which will they choose?

You're clearly right when you say the proper attacks are found in the corruption area. I would have thought otherwise, that the good, culturally conservative voters of Western Pennsylvania would have been more offended by his recent statements on the war. After all, Murtha's ethical shortcomings have been a matter of record for a number of years. (Except for that question about hosting the party for the convicted felon, and trying to force taxpayers to pay the legal bills of a Congressman who's guilty of taking a bribe. Anyone have any background info on that?)

[freema]

District 12 has the final say. Will enough western Pennsylvanians realize the issues are not in what he may have done in the past to revitalize their towns, but in what he has done to harm the efforts this country has made in the GWOT, as well as his many shady past dealings. The final voting tally will be indicative of what this section of the country really thinks about national security efforts. - Marine_Uncle

[W04Man]

Bump and Elect Diana Irey --- Donate Today!

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[Flora McDonald]

I hope you don't mind if I "borrow" the tip of the iceberg pic. I can think of soooo many uses for it.

[Just A Nobody]

Received and Returned!

That was the best thing I have EVER read!!!!!!!!!! ;*)

[Just A Nobody]

Thank you for your reasoned response to the poll *spit* questions. You can please some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you just can't please some FReepers, ever!

Love your tag, btw. ;*)

[RobFromGa]

Bump!

[Sisku Hanne]

Corruption. entitlement. sedition. Moutha epitomizes all three.

PA voters are sick and tired of having corrupt people representing them, on both state and federal levels.
They're sick and tired of pompous blow-hard overlords who rule their districts like fiefdoms and think they own us. 32 years is about 20 too many for anyone to serve.
They are sick and tired of "mediaticians" who publicly tear down their military family members for their own political agenda. These same people fill the bleachers at the local Friday night football games. Imagine if someone sat in the stands shouting "Our team fights dirty! Our team is broken! Everybody hates our team! We can't win!" They'd throw him out on his butt or beat the snot out of him under the bleachers. Whether one thinks we should be in a war or not, any rational person knows bashing your team while they're in on the field is no way to show support.

It really doesn't matter which straw breaks the camel's back. Voters are fed up with everything moutha represents.

[Interesting Times]

Apologies if you've already been pinged to this thread, but this is important news -- Irey clearly has a good shot at defeating John Murtha, keeper of the Kerry/Fonda U.S. war crimes propaganda flame...

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[God luvs America]

about time this came out....ten points is still a lot at this point...hopefully those in the state who though she did not have a chance will now be motivated to vote for her...

[Eva]

Yes! and I also saw that Santorum is even closer to Casey, now, within five.

[Chieftain]

Muck Furtha!