Tropical Storm Ernesto leaves Florida and heads for the Carolinas

NWS/NHC ^ | 30 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is poised to emerge into Atlantic waters after feebly creeping along the Florida peninsula. Media pundits with tremulous cameras dotted Florida's extensive coastline for the past 24 hours, showing video of children playing in the sand, dark skies, and occasional rain.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina, as Ernesto moves north at 15mph. The storm's intensity and forecast track has puzzled forecasters for several days.

N.C. Governor Mike Easley and S.C. Governor Mark Sanford activated the National Guard today in their respective states, as the forecast track indicated Ernesto may regain tropical storm force winds, and make landfall again along the Carolinas coastline.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto

[nwctwx]

I have never paid, I am not sure why. I signed up as a photographer the day it hit their site and it said free services came with it for a year... that year passed and I never paid a dime and keep getting the services. Not bad! ;-)

Even their free offerings are pretty cool, and I am sure they will continue to grow quite a bit in the coming years.

[dirtboy]

I doubt there will be any more intensification. The vortex report didn't show an eye, and I can't see one on radar. The center of circulation is looking a bit chaotic, much more than two hours ago and quite a bit more than four hours ago or so, when there was the beginning of an eye that quickly broke apart.

[nwctwx]

Based on this new understanding, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center typically now uses a factor of 90 percent to estimate a hurricane’s maximum surface winds from flight-level observations. This means that the winds of some storms in the historical record may have been underestimated.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s966b.htm

[dirtboy]

5pm advisory out. 70mph winds. Looks like that will be peak intensity.

[nwctwx]

Yup, probably.

[dirtboy]

Oh, crap. Here is the bad news. Check out the forecast path:

Now they are saying this bastard will all but stall out for a couple days. Watch out, Virginia.

[Raebie]

If the center would quit moving east, I'd tend to agree with that.

[dirtboy]

5pm discussion:

Tropical Storm Ernesto :

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006

extensive reconnaissance with both NOAA and Air Force aircraft indicate that the maximum surface winds associated with Ernesto are 60 knots. The central minimum pressure is 991 mb. Satellite and radar presentation show a well defined convective curved band wrapping around an area of deep convection near the center. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast at 15 knots and on this track...the cyclone is forecast to reach the coast within the warning area tonight with 60 knots. One can not rule out the possibility a slight strengthening to a category one hurricane at landfall.

Once inland and beyond 36 hours...Ernesto should begin to interact with a frontal system and become extratropical by 48 hours. However...the remnant system is expected to move little and produce heavy rains over portions of the eastern United States.

The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 32.6n 78.7w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 34.7n 78.0w 50 kt...inland
24hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 02/0600z 38.5n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 02/1800z 41.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 03/1800z...absorbed by a frontal system

$$
forecaster Avila

[PleaseNoMore]

Wilmington is already flooding as they have record breaking amounts of rain there today, five plus inches. Winds of 70 mp or less even combined with the rain to come can make for a big mess.

[brothers4thID]

Nooooooooo.

[brothers4thID]

Heads up ( to keep them above water)

[PeteB570]

We got 1 inch yesterday and another .4" overnight until around noon. I dumped the gage around 1:00PM and we've had a slow steady rain since then for a total of around .35"

Should pick up around 8:00PM. We'll see.

[nwctwx]

It's not really moving east very much at this point, and is about to go completely north. Look at the trough going from positive (tilted sw to ne) to neutral (tilted n to s) in the central portion of the U.S. Also, the high pressue building down from the north won't let it go east much longer.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

[RDTF]

let's build an ark!

[TheLion]

"they are saying this bastard will all but stall out for a couple days. Watch out, Virginia."

Not good!

[RDTF]

I like Storm2K better

[PleaseNoMore]

I see you are in Cumberland Co. I am one county over to the west of you; in Hoke Co. I border the southern Moore Co. line. Personally, I don't feel this will be significant here if the track keeps shifting eastward. Or, at least I am hoping it won't. Yesterday's storm in Aberdeen/Southern Pines was enough for me for a while as we got around 6 in in some parts of Sou Pines.

[dirtboy]

A couple of interesting things on that loop:

1 - looks like a bit of dry air got sucked into Ernesto over the last few hours - might be another reason why it started looking less lively.

Check out John - the convection first spread out and then signficiantly diminished. Hopefully he's taking a hit from being so close to the coast.

[RDTF]

I haven't seen much rain at all here in the last few days, I am hoping that will be the saving grace when it comes

[Raebie]

Any chance it will change direction and head west? We could use abit of rain!