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Posted on 08/01/2006 9:51:52 PM PDT by nwctwx
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Israel Giving Up On UN Cease-Fire Deal
PM Olmert Tells Military To Launch A Wider Ground Action In Lebanon
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/08/11/world/main1884927.shtml?source=RSS&attr=World_1884927
And they were looking for targets in Montana. :-)
I've always felt that downing more planes isn't the "big plan" to top 9/11. They have far grander plans.
Being a Montanan, they'd most likely would be the targets. That is hunting rifle in rear window country. LOL
Godzilla Observations
Hang on, with the apparent GO for IDF, things will be happening pretty fast. Here's the latest.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah did not wait for the official UN Security Council announcement on a ceasefire and launched its own media campaign declaring it had 'won the war against Israel.' In the latest video aired on Al-Manar TV the terror group says it “defeated the invincible army” and “July-August 2006: Legend shattered.”
Red Light….Green Light
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed on Friday that the government has given the green light for army to widen its operations in southern Lebanon and to capture the territory south of the Litani River, officers confirm. If the word for the IDF to continue the offensive is true, this may become obsolete fast. But then the offensive has been on again and off again so many times that I will wait and see. However, it initially looks like it is a GO.
IDF Surprises
IDF officials admit that the biggest surprise of the ongoing war against Hizbullah is the ease by which terrorists have destroyed IDF tanks. At least 30 tanks have been totally destroyed or seriously damaged in bomb and anti-tank rocket attacks involving state-of-the-art Russian anti-tank rockets. About one-half of the military personnel killed in southern Lebanon were inside tanks.
Diplomatic Efforts Appearing to Stall
Once again, diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting appear to be coming unraveled. However, Olmert is so determined to get out from this war that he is even willing to allow Hezbollah to remain armed and negotiate the release of the captured IDF soldiers at a later date.
Hezbollah running out of supplies
"Many Hizbullah cells hiding in southern Lebanon are coming out, most likely because their food and water resources have been depleted. As a result, there are many clashes between them and IDF forces in all arenas," he said. According to the officer, IDF forces operating in the areas struck six Hizbullah cells in recent days. The IDF has done a good job at isolating the battlefield if this is the case. If Hezbollah cells have expended their supplies of food and water, it is unlikely that they are getting ammunition / rocket resupply either.
IDF Ground Offensive
This may become obsolete quickly if things get going again. The front has been relatively quiet with the exception of the area round Marjayoun. I suspect IDF is attempting to consolidate positions in preparation for a potential continuation of the attack. The most severe fighting continued around Marjayoun, an important hub just north of Israel's Galilee panhandle that juts into Lebanon.
Late reports yesterday (long after I posted the Special for that day) indicate that there are additional axis of attack that my other sources didn’t fully identify. These have been mostly confirmed from open sources and troop concentrations prior to the aborted ground campaign. Today’s map shows the approximate new positions base upon the additional information with Wednesday’s starting positions.
The first additional axis of advance is in the west with a push towards (and eventually along) the coast. It is currently stalled in the vicinity of Shama and Majdal Zun. It is still not clear as to the extent of IDF penetration northward from the border here. It is suspected that the goal of the advancement along the coast is to neutralize launching sites around Tyre. The grain of the terrain is east to west, so the quickest way would be to get to the coastal plains and move north rather than cross country.
A second major axis has occurred north of Bint Jubayl reaching the vicinity of Tibnin, about 14 km south of the Litani. This axis could have been the source of the report late yesterday that the IDF had pushed to about 12 kilometers (roughly 8 miles) into Lebanon – about 10 kilometers away from the Litani River.
Another axis of advancement that has been better confirmed is the westward one from the Kafr Kila area to Al Qantarah. This push could be used to secure crossing sites of the Litani and provide access to the plateau area in the vicinity of Zawtar ash Sharqiyat and eventually the town of Nabatiye – a source of short to medium ranged rockets.
There is another unspecified attack along the Saluqi Wadi, located just west of the depicted eastern (northern) sector. This Wadi runs north – south. I am evaluating if this is a real axis of advance or just westward push from established IDF positions.
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It appears that there are two main pincers, one pushing westward along the Litani, and one along the coast. However, the coastal one appears at the moment to be bogged down, so the central advance is carrying the day with a general westward advance from the east to capture Hezbollah in the southeastern area of Lebanon. IDF officials have also said they have government approval to attack farther north to deny other rocket launching areas.
IAF Activity
They’ve continued to attack select targets. Nothing beyond what has now become common.
Hezbollah Rockets
Hezbollah launched another barrage of more than 150 rockets yesterday. Rescue workers said seven people in the port of Haifa were injured by shrapnel.
Nice rant.
One with which I agree.
Terrorists Had "Go" Order for Mission
The conspirators in the foiled terror plot to blow up jets heading to the U.S. from the U.K. reportedly had a "go" order.
The Guardian newspaper cites unidentified British government sources as saying they intercepted a coded message earlier this week, after the arrests of suspects in Pakistan. The message said "Do your attacks now."
A U.S. congressman, who also asked not to identified, said he has been told U.S. intelligence had intercepted terrorist chatter as well.
(snip)
http://www.news10.net/storyfull2.aspx?storyid=19284
This seems to get overlooked in the reporting.
Why would the message say "do your attacks now?"
Do they really think that wouldn't raise alarms?
They probably didn't think the Brits could crack the code.
Well, it was a coded message - so they must have thought it was coded enough to send.
It ticks me off that this info came out.
Now it will compromise that information pathway.
LATEST: Pakistan says signs of Afghanistan al-Qaida connection in air terror plot. More details soon
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
Interesting...
More on the search in the U.S.:
Official says FBI pursuing plot leads
8/11/2006, 11:39 a.m. ET
By LARRY MARGASAK
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — A top White House counterterrorism official tried to reassure the public Friday that it's safe to fly even as she acknowledged that investigators continue to search for some of the terrorists accused of planning to blow up airliners over the Atlantic Ocean.
Frances Fragos Townsend, President Bush's homeland security adviser, did not rule out that some missing plotters may be in the United States......
http://www.nj.com/newsflash/washington/index.ssf?/base/politics-10/115529814499510.xml&storylist=washington
Best Guess of IDF Attack
Eastern / Northern Sector
Based upon the deployment depicted in today’s summary (#905), I would suspect that IDF will attack westward from Marjayoun to capture the high ground north of the Litani River. This will help secure river crossing sites and is more of a plateau, better for armor to operate in. Looking closely at the map, the east-west trend of the Litani River is in a steep sided valley with few crossing sites suitable for forcing northward. Capture of the north side will facilitate this and deny Hezbollah defensive positions. A major objective would be in the vicinity of Qa qa iyat al Jisr (See Central Sector below). An element may move more to the north after crossing the Litani towards An Nabatiyah – a major site of rocket launchings.
Central Sector
The assault in the central sector northward from Bint Juball is probably towards river crossing site just south of Qa qa iyat al Jisr. This is the only crossing site shown on the map. Forces from the eastern sector will continue to the west to secure lines of communication northward through Bint Juball and begin search and destroy operations in sector.
Western Sector
The western sector axis, as stated in the Summary, will try to break through to the coastal plains and move north to Tyre. They would likely bypass it to the east and proceed to the Litani, leaving a force to keep Hezbollah pinned down until follow-on forces can come in and deal with them. I have half a hunch that they may already be at the coast at Al Mansuri, site of earlier fighting this week. The coastal plain will support an armored push, so once they get there; it’ll be pedal to the metal. This will leave their right flank relatively open as I don’t see forces moving northward keeping up with the armor assault. Terrain texture is east to west with a similar road network. If IDF were to attack into this area, the forces would likely attack to the east from the coast toward the central sector forces who would be in a blocking position to prevent Hezbollah escape.
Reports that the offensive is now underway... troops have orders to go tto the Litani.
We'll see how good of a prognosticator I am...
BREAKING on Fox:
40 Mid-Air Terror Plot Suspects Reported Arrested in Italy
BREAKING - 40 terrorists arrested in Italy. May be a wider plot.
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