Best Guess of IDF Attack
Eastern / Northern Sector
Based upon the deployment depicted in today’s summary (#905), I would suspect that IDF will attack westward from Marjayoun to capture the high ground north of the Litani River. This will help secure river crossing sites and is more of a plateau, better for armor to operate in. Looking closely at the map, the east-west trend of the Litani River is in a steep sided valley with few crossing sites suitable for forcing northward. Capture of the north side will facilitate this and deny Hezbollah defensive positions. A major objective would be in the vicinity of Qa qa iyat al Jisr (See Central Sector below). An element may move more to the north after crossing the Litani towards An Nabatiyah – a major site of rocket launchings.
Central Sector
The assault in the central sector northward from Bint Juball is probably towards river crossing site just south of Qa qa iyat al Jisr. This is the only crossing site shown on the map. Forces from the eastern sector will continue to the west to secure lines of communication northward through Bint Juball and begin search and destroy operations in sector.
Western Sector
The western sector axis, as stated in the Summary, will try to break through to the coastal plains and move north to Tyre. They would likely bypass it to the east and proceed to the Litani, leaving a force to keep Hezbollah pinned down until follow-on forces can come in and deal with them. I have half a hunch that they may already be at the coast at Al Mansuri, site of earlier fighting this week. The coastal plain will support an armored push, so once they get there; it’ll be pedal to the metal. This will leave their right flank relatively open as I don’t see forces moving northward keeping up with the armor assault. Terrain texture is east to west with a similar road network. If IDF were to attack into this area, the forces would likely attack to the east from the coast toward the central sector forces who would be in a blocking position to prevent Hezbollah escape.
Reports that the offensive is now underway... troops have orders to go tto the Litani.