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Stratfor: Red Alert: The Battle Joined
Stratfor intelligence ^ | 07/21/2006 | analysis@stratfor.com

Posted on 07/21/2006 11:05:26 AM PDT by STFrancis

The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations. Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford. The war has begun at Hezbollah's time and choosing. Israel is caught between three strategic imperatives. First, it must end the threat to Israeli cities, which must involve the destruction of Hezbollah's launch capabilities south of the Litani River. Second, it must try to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, which means it must move into the Bekaa Valley and as far as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Third, it must do so in such a way that it is not dragged into a long-term, unsustainable occupation against a capable insurgency. Hezbollah has implemented its strategy by turning southern Lebanon into a military stronghold, consisting of well-designed bunkers that serve both as fire bases and launch facilities for rockets. The militants appear to be armed with anti-tank weapons and probably anti-aircraft weapons, some of which appear to be of American origin, raising the question of how they were acquired. Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2006israelwar; hezbollah; israel; lebanon; stratfor; war
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Ain't it the delightful truth? (snort!)


41 posted on 07/21/2006 1:18:14 PM PDT by SierraWasp (Memo To: Uncle Sam Re: Terrorists, Insurgents and Illegal Combatants...NoUniforms... No Prisoners!!!)
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To: STFrancis; All
If this is the situation, then Israel needs to be on offensive.

Hell-a-baluu is sponsored, armed and directed not by Syria but by Iran.

The next step is for Israel to tell Iran that the next target is ...

Tehran.
42 posted on 07/21/2006 1:24:16 PM PDT by Mr. Jazzy (Mr. Jazzy, VPD of LCpl Smoothguy242, USMC, LavaDog 1/3 Marines Ooorah!!!)
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To: sono

I question the efficacy of bunker busters. They apparently were used in Beruit on the complex there and we don't know what they did. We do know no big baddies were done in.

Also in Iraq we watched them fall but never saw really damaged bunkers. To the contrary, we saw bunkers entered and cautiously explored.


43 posted on 07/21/2006 1:29:20 PM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. Slay Pinch)
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To: STFrancis
Israel faces a complex and challenging task. Defeating the PLO on the ground was a piece of cake back in the 80s. Hezbollah put a lot of thought and effort into making sure Israel can't do that again. Now Israel will have to counter with some surprises of her own in this war.

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em, Down Hezbullies.)

44 posted on 07/21/2006 1:29:38 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: fireforeffect

"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man." -- George S. Patton


45 posted on 07/21/2006 1:38:56 PM PDT by Richard Kimball
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To: fireforeffect
All these articles about 200 foot deep bunkers are funny. Did not do the talaban much good did it?

In case you didn't notice Sadam Hussien's bunkers survived our best bunker busters. German engineering is pretty good.

46 posted on 07/21/2006 1:51:10 PM PDT by itsahoot (The home of the Free, Because of the Brave (Shamelessly stolen from a Marine)
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To: Mike Darancette

Hell, come out of the Golan, put the Litani on your left flank and drive for Beirut.


47 posted on 07/21/2006 1:51:33 PM PDT by gura
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To: SierraWasp

Hiz will just jump over into syria.


48 posted on 07/21/2006 2:42:39 PM PDT by gotribe (It's not a religion.)
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To: gotribe
Hiz will just jump over into syria.

Not if you cut them off before they can get around the Golan.

49 posted on 07/21/2006 2:44:55 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Make them go home!!)
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To: gura
Drive fro Golan keep the river on your right flank and drive north of Tyre while coming up from the south. Trap them in the South and avoid having Lebanese troops linking up.
50 posted on 07/21/2006 2:52:42 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Make them go home!!)
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To: thoughtomator
Israel should just annex the southern half of Lebanon and be done with it.

Israel should have annexed the southern part of Lebanon, Gaza Strip and West Bank long ago, tossed out the Arabs and set up a secure border.

51 posted on 07/21/2006 3:09:37 PM PDT by Wolfstar (Where you go with me, heaven will always be.)
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To: Little Bill

Bunkers were the Japanese tactic in the Pacific on Iwo and Oki and other places. They were expensive to clean up but they did not survive. We did not have the bunker busting weapons and precision capabilities that we (and Israel) have now.


52 posted on 07/21/2006 3:20:58 PM PDT by ThanhPhero (di hanh huong den La Vang)
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To: STFrancis

There is no way that Israel is going to Bekaa. I would be surprised if they went farther north than Sidon.


53 posted on 07/21/2006 3:24:43 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: Wolfstar
Israel should just annex the southern half of Lebanon and be done with it.

1967. It would not have been diffiult then, not like that same operation now. They should have pushed the saracens into Jordan and Egypt and flooded the West Bank, Gaza, and Southern Lebanon with settlers. That's "flooded," not merely "allowed to settle." Non Moslem Lebanese could have been allowed to stay; others pushed north.

54 posted on 07/21/2006 3:32:39 PM PDT by ThanhPhero (di hanh huong den La Vang)
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To: STFrancis

I don't see how fighting from fortified positions against an enemy with air superiority is a good strategy. No mobility and Israel knows or will discover where they are.


55 posted on 07/21/2006 5:29:22 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: Mike Darancette

That's one option for sure - instead of entering the bekaa valley, just cut it off and starve it. If the good guys can take the heights, they can pummel the valley forever without much risk. And the IAF can keep the syrians at bay. But the israelis will still have to cut off the rat paths and rather quickly.


56 posted on 07/21/2006 5:31:43 PM PDT by gotribe (It's not a religion.)
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To: ThanhPhero
That's "flooded," not merely "allowed to settle." Non Moslem Lebanese could have been allowed to stay; others pushed north.

All that does is move the missle targets north. Israel needs an occupied, uninhabited buffer zone. And that will have to get wider over time as Muslims get their hands on longer and longer range missles.

57 posted on 07/21/2006 5:38:42 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: STFrancis

What if Iran is crazy enough to use their missiles on Israel with an attack on the Americans in Iraq? Crazy, yes, but then they are crazy to begin with!


58 posted on 07/21/2006 11:53:10 PM PDT by Blind Eye Jones
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To: My2Cents
I definitely agree. Invading Lebanon and taking heavy casualties against dug in Hezbollah forces is playing right into what Iran wants. Stay on the defense in Lebanon and continue air strikes with bunker busters and use the full force of the IDF to surround and destroy the Bekaa valley and everyone in it. The US should support this with everything we have in the arsenal. Its time to stop worrying about the what the Arab street thinks. We are fast approaching the point described in VDH's column "Patience is wearing thin". Its time to give them an example of total annihilation.
59 posted on 07/22/2006 3:46:41 AM PDT by 1911a1freep
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To: 1911a1freep

What the IDF should do, IMHO, is move rapidly to the Litani river, seal it off, then turn southward and start to clean out the Hexbollah, one village at a time.


60 posted on 07/22/2006 3:52:38 AM PDT by ken5050
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