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Stratfor: Red Alert: The Battle Joined
Stratfor intelligence ^ | 07/21/2006 | analysis@stratfor.com

Posted on 07/21/2006 11:05:26 AM PDT by STFrancis

The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations. Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford. The war has begun at Hezbollah's time and choosing. Israel is caught between three strategic imperatives. First, it must end the threat to Israeli cities, which must involve the destruction of Hezbollah's launch capabilities south of the Litani River. Second, it must try to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, which means it must move into the Bekaa Valley and as far as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Third, it must do so in such a way that it is not dragged into a long-term, unsustainable occupation against a capable insurgency. Hezbollah has implemented its strategy by turning southern Lebanon into a military stronghold, consisting of well-designed bunkers that serve both as fire bases and launch facilities for rockets. The militants appear to be armed with anti-tank weapons and probably anti-aircraft weapons, some of which appear to be of American origin, raising the question of how they were acquired. Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2006israelwar; hezbollah; israel; lebanon; stratfor; war
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To: Billthedrill
Agreed.

All a well fortified bunker complex makes you is an easy target. Bomb it till it stops shooting at you (HE or thermobaric) then stick a long hose (with a blow back valve of course) from a propane tank down a hole and fill'er up. CO2 works well too if you want to see what they had down there.

All these articles about 200 foot deep bunkers are funny. Did not do the talaban much good did it?
21 posted on 07/21/2006 11:41:05 AM PDT by fireforeffect (A kind word and a 2x4, gets you more than just a kind word.)
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To: Billthedrill

A bunker is a grave by another name. Fortifications were meant to channel an attack not as an end in itself, if the rag heads cannot maneuver off of the fortifications in strength, then all the Israelis have to do is isolate and eliminate.


22 posted on 07/21/2006 11:44:15 AM PDT by Little Bill (A 37%'r, a Red Spot on a Blue State, rats are evil.)
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To: edcoil
O'Rielly had a Stratfor guy on the other night and he said Israel would attack soon - he said Rice would also cancel her trip if so since going in after a ground war started it would do little good.

What would Rice have to offer at this stage? Doesn't it seem better to stand back for now and let Israel handle this?

23 posted on 07/21/2006 11:47:22 AM PDT by GOPJ
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To: CIB-173RDABN

exactly right!


24 posted on 07/21/2006 11:48:32 AM PDT by chilepepper (The map is not the territory -- Alfred Korzybski)
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Power of prayer.

25 posted on 07/21/2006 11:48:39 AM PDT by evets (God is in control.)
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To: Berosus; Cincinatus' Wife; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; FairOpinion; ...
move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford.
Occupation isn't in the future for Hizbollah. Come to think of it, nothing much is in the future of Hizbollah.
26 posted on 07/21/2006 11:49:39 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (updated my FR profile on Wednesday, June 21, 2006. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: fireforeffect
Good point. If I remember correctly when the Japanese where defending the bunker complex that was Iwo Jima the Marines also used bulldozers to bury many bunkers under many feet of dirt.
27 posted on 07/21/2006 11:50:07 AM PDT by 2001convSVT ("People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence")
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To: STFrancis
Won't do any long term good so long as the Syrian regime remains in place as a conduit to Hezbollah to rearm, resupply and re-fund.
28 posted on 07/21/2006 11:52:39 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: STFrancis

It would be interesting to look at a topographic map. Maybe with a few big explosions and some digging they could make the area a part of the Mediterranean Sea. [just a little Friday afternoon "thinking outside the box"]


29 posted on 07/21/2006 11:54:28 AM PDT by LZ_Bayonet
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To: Capt. Tom
I see an Israeli advance to the line of Az Zahrani to the Northern tip of the occupied Golan Heights.

Thankfully Israel did not give the Golan back to Syria.

30 posted on 07/21/2006 11:54:50 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Make them go home!!)
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To: justshutupandtakeit
Many of the prognostications from Stratfor are as accurate as touts from a Track junkie. I don't put a whole lot of confidence in its analysis or predictions.

I agree with you.

This sounds just the like the French strategy with the Maginot Line and look how good that worked.

31 posted on 07/21/2006 12:00:08 PM PDT by Texas Jack
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To: SierraWasp

Hezbollah may have miscalculated. The Israelis don't have PC, as far as I know, and they don't have people like John Murtha and Paul Craig Roberts to undermine their efforts from within Israel.


32 posted on 07/21/2006 12:04:03 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Going partly violently to the thing 24-7!)
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To: STFrancis

"Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons."

This will turn out to be the big Hez mistake.

They, as an "insurgency", have taken on an army AS an army.

Their big plan as analyzed here will FORCE israel to obviate the threat that they pose(and have ALWAYS posed).

Now Israel only has to kill them.


33 posted on 07/21/2006 12:06:44 PM PDT by TalBlack
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To: himno hero

I hope the Israelis get their hands on the american anti tank weapons, so that they can be traced. There is a betrayal in there somewhere.


34 posted on 07/21/2006 12:15:07 PM PDT by Candor7 (Into Liberal flatulance goes the best hope of the West, and who wants to be a smart feller?)
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To: CIB-173RDABN

.....Don't play by their rules.....

Flame spewing tanks and massive naplm charges over the entrances...... over and over till crispy.

Provide imbedded tv to scare the dog**** out of others


35 posted on 07/21/2006 12:15:49 PM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. Slay Pinch)
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To: STFrancis
If General MacArthur were in charge of the Israeli forces he would bring a large assault on the bunker line from the south using armour and artillery with ground forces. He likely would bring an amphibious assault around Sidon and drive East toward the Syrian border, and destroy the supply and com lines into Beirut from the South. This tactic would force the Hezbollahs to retreat to Syria as the Sothern forces link up with the Eastwqard amphibious force. Maybe the US MArines will be in on it yet. This would take about a week with laser desifgnated air support and would be an end run without the Bunkers having to be taken individually. The Israelis could take their time roasting the Hezzy assholes ( POTUS's Term) oout of their holes with armored flame throwers.

That is my prediction for the strategery that is about to be used.

36 posted on 07/21/2006 12:22:14 PM PDT by Candor7 (Into Liberal flatulance goes the best hope of the West, and who wants to be a smart feller?)
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To: rjp2005; STFrancis

Been there, done that; and it isn't all playing with toy tanks and soldiers. Many hours of reading dull reports, creating and examining possible courses of action. Determining capability versus intent, and short-term versus long range goals.

And if the bad guys do something different or before or after what/when you estimated...you name is mudd and folks scream "intelligence failure."


37 posted on 07/21/2006 12:23:32 PM PDT by GreyFriar ( (3rd Armored Division - Spearhead))
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To: bert

Two words : "Bunker Busters"


38 posted on 07/21/2006 12:44:34 PM PDT by sono ("May the Wings of Liberty never lose a feather." Jack Burton)
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To: Capt. Tom

Looking at the map again I wonder if Hezbollah might not be attacked from the East and the South. They could be cut off.


39 posted on 07/21/2006 12:46:43 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Make them go home!!)
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To: Mike Darancette
Israel might get a double bubble here by driving out Hezbolla and extending its northern security zone to include the Litani river

Source: Geographical Review, Jul93, Vol. 83 Issue 3, p229, 9p.

Access to the Litani River was a concern during Israel's formative years. The diaries of Moshe Sharett, an Israeli prime minister during the mid-1950s, reveal that Ben-Gurion and Moshe Dayan, chief of staff and defense minister, were strong advocates of Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon to the Litani River (Rabinovich 1985).

In the wake of the 1967 war and in view of Israeli territorial gains from three of its four neighbors, Dayan reiterated his long-standing opinion that Israel had achieved "provisionally satisfying frontiers, with the exception of those with Lebanon" (Hof 1985, 36).

40 posted on 07/21/2006 1:17:07 PM PDT by Capt. Tom (Don't confuse the Bushies with the dumb Republicans - Capt. Tom)
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