Posted on 07/16/2006 11:11:16 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
09:02 Amir Peretz: We won`t stop fighting before achieving our objectives (Haaretz)
08:52 Barrage of Katyusha rockets hits Kiryat Shmona (Itim)
08:48 IDF arrested 12 wanted Palestinian militants in overnight West Bank raids (Itim)
08:32 Two Qassam rockets land in Ashkelon; no casualties or damage reported (Channel 10)
08:07 One IDF soldier lightly injured in fighting in northern Gaza Strip (Israel Radio)
07:57 Asia-Pacific officials working to evacuate citizens from Lebanon (AP)
07:31 Rocket barrage slams into Safed; no immediate report of casualties, damage (Haaretz)
07:30 Two people lightly injured in Acre from rocket hits (Haaretz)
07:21 Alarm sirens heard in Tiberias, no hits reported as yet (Channel 10)
07:20 Two people lightly wounded by sharpnel in Qassam hits on Sderot (Haaretz)
07:07 Lebanese: IDF attacks Beirut port; large fire breaks out (AP)
07:00 Third Qassam rocket hits Sderot; no casualties reported (Haaretz)
06:56 IDF soldier injured in Beit Hanun (Haaretz)
06:49 Katyusha rocket hits community near northern town of Acre; 4 people injured (Haaretz)
06:43 Two loud explosions rock southern suburbs of Beirut (AP)
06:37 Two Qassam rockets hit Sderot; no casualties (Israel Radio)
06:16 Lebanese: 17 fatalities, 9 of them soldiers, in latest round of IDF strikes (Israel Radio)
06:13 Qassam rocket hits western Negev; no casualties (Israel Radio)
06:08 IAF strikes over 50 targets in Lebanon in overnight attacks (Israel Radio)
06:05 IDF says air raid sirens in Haifa were false alarm (Israel Radio)
06:03 Air raid sirens sound in Haifa (AP)
05:46 IDF: Lebanese military involved in Friday attack on Israeli ship (AP)
05:43 IDF: Radar stations targeted were used in Friday attack on Israeli ship (AP)
05:37 IDF: Latest attacks in Lebanon are against radar stations used by Hezbollah (AP)
05:13 Israel blames Hizbollah after Canadian deaths in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
04:35 Oil surges back toward record highs after weekend of Middle East violence (Reuters)
04:13 13 killed, including 8 soldiers, in renewed overnight IDF attacks in Lebanon (AP)
03:21 EU foreign ministers discuss diplomatic options in effort to end Mideast violence (AP)
ABC radio news this morning made an offhand comment this morning ... something about the markets rallying upon news that the mideast crisis may be over soon.
Did I miss something? Is there a deal afoot? Or is the belief that Israel will be successful in creating its "buffer zone" soon?
They need to get over it
Well, I just e-mailed Fox so hopefully that helped my BP to go down a few notches. That was plain awful.
17:34 French President Jacques Chirac arrives in Beirut (AFP)
17:30 Marchers chant `death to Israel` at Berlin protest over IDF action in Lebanon (Reuters)
17:13 Israel closes Haifa port after rocket attacks (Reuters)
17:11 UN team says it has taken `promising` first steps toward ceasefire in Lebanon (AFP)
17:02 IDF checking Al-Aqsa claim that it abducted Border Policeman in West Bank (Haaretz)
16:47 Two Qassam rockets land in the Negev; no injuries reported (Haaretz)
sounds like threat to me...
can we PLEASE give this guy some nukes?
PLEASE!
can we deliver them NOW!?
;-)
Partially our fault by pretending that they were a world power at the end of WWII. UN Security Council seat, Berlin partition, etc.
It wasn't possible because of the delay. The PM hung up right after John Scott said, "We're going to Mike Tobin in Haifa." The PM immediately said, "No, I don't want to talk to anyone in Haifa." Click. Mike barely heard John Scott saying they were going to him before the PM hung up.
I think Jon Scott was stunned by the PM's lack of decorum, we are not used to unhinged leaders. I mean perfect case here today. George W, Bush said "shit" oh no the world may end. LOL I am glad you are feeling better.
----Just listening to FOX..extraordinary interview with the Lebanese UN man...Tammy Bruce afterwards observed the change in tone from him since Friday...he sounds much more in "the pocket" of Hizbullah than he did...interesting..
Folks, I'm hungry and wish to eat before I face my dire fate.
I'll be in and out, so replies may not happen, but I'll be reading every post anyway, even if late.
Last I heard, Ohlmert was scheduled to speak at 11 am EDT, which is in about 20 minutes.
I suspect it will be enlightening.
"Marchers chant 'death to Israel' at Berlin protest"
Oh, wonderful. I assume this is muslims that happen to be living in Germany, but it sure sounds BAD.
New air raid sirens in Haifa!
Note to the terrorists: Guess who's getting the shaft? Hint: It ain't gonna be the autocrats.
OT, but I think I am developing a bit of a crush on Mike Tobin.
STRATFOR Red Alert: Confusion Before the Storm
There was some major confusion a couple of hours ago. First, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman told the wire services that Israeli troops had entered southern Lebanon. Then IDF officials denied it. Then it was announced that bulldozers had gone in and had been withdrawn. We went from thinking the invasion had begun to that it hadn't to "what in the world is going on?"
Our best guess at the moment is that the bulldozers went in to clear mines and other obstacles prior to the main body of Israeli forces crossing over tonight. Another explanation might be that this was a probe designed to draw Hezbollah fire. The Israelis are clearly worried that Hezbollah has obtained advanced weaponry from Iran via the sea and Syria. They don't seem to be sure what has arrived and what has deployed with Hezbollah forces, but they don't want to push across the border only to have their armor caught in a hail of advanced anti-tank missiles or trapped by advanced anti-tank mines. There also could be an element of psychological warfare in this confusion. Hezbollah knows Israel is coming but doesn't know when -- and Israel wants to rattle its fighters as much as possible.
All of this is possible, but the fact is that major Israeli forces have not crossed the border into Lebanon as of afternoon July 17, local time. The Israelis did announce they were calling up a reserve division over the weekend. Meanwhile, Israeli aircraft are continuing intense operations over Lebanon. More Hezbollah rockets started hitting Israel after daybreak July 17. This obviously creates some urgency for the Israelis. The airstrikes have not succeeded in shutting down rockets that can reach as far as Haifa, and the Israelis have acknowledged that Tel Aviv is at risk as well. Therefore, where we have expected Israel to move as soon as possible, it has not yet committed forces on the ground.
One explanation could be that the Israelis simply are not ready to move yet. Deploying a force suitable for the mission takes time. The call-up of the reserve division by headquarters indicates that this is to be a substantial operation. The Israelis might not want ground forces to go until they are completely ready, and thus are prepared to absorb the additional hours or days of missile attack to make sure the attack is decisive.
A second possible explanation is that although the Israelis have lost any element of strategic surprise -- Hezbollah certainly knows they are coming -- they are hoping for some tactical surprise. The longer they delay, the less certain and more weary Hezbollah becomes. It is not clear, however, whether the advantage tied to any possibility of tactical surprise is worth the incoming missiles.
Third, it could be that the air campaign is not yet complete. Israel, like the United States, likes to shape the battlefield by running extensive air campaigns. There could be too many targets for such a campaign to have run its course yet, or the targets might be more robust than expected. The Israelis could be hunting for the longer-range missiles that Hezbollah has, fearing that an invasion before these are destroyed would invite a launch at Tel Aviv -- something they don't want to see.
Yet another reason for the delay might be something that Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at July 16, when he said Russians had been negotiating for the release of the three kidnapped Israeli soldiers and that he did not feel the negotiations had been unsuccessful. Israel does want the soldiers returned. But while Hamas might consider releasing the captives in its custody, it is hard to believe Hezbollah would -- not if, after releasing them, Hezbollah would still face attacks.
There is massive diplomacy under way, and Israel is doing well. Not only is the United States lining up with Israel, but the sense at the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, was much less hostile to Israel than normal. In addition, both the Saudis and Egyptians have made it clear that they hold Hezbollah responsible for what has happened. Given this, it is not inconceivable that some diplomatic process is actually moving forward.
The problem with that scenario is that any diplomatic settlement to the crisis not only would preserve Hezbollah in some way, but would depend on Hezbollah implementing an agreement. The Israelis see the situation that has erupted in recent days as a rare opportunity to deal with Hezbollah, and they have no trust in diplomatic arrangements or their enforcement by mediators. They do want their soldiers back, but not at the risk of leaving Hezbollah in place.
The fighting is hardly tapering off. Israel's aircraft are ranging over Lebanon, a blockade is in place, and Hezbollah is firing at northern Israel quite effectively. Israel will not willingly leave Hezbollah in place while it has such capabilities. The Israelis might leave all this to airpower, but the fact is that the Israeli army has no confidence in the air force's ability to definitively destroy Hezbollah. The view is that, in the end, they will have to go in on the ground.
It is interesting to note, however, that the United States is being surprisingly relaxed about getting American citizens out of Beirut. Obviously, it can't get everyone out, but unlike other countries, the United States has been slow to move, in spite of the obvious risk of hostage-taking. U.S. Embassy officials in Beirut seem to be acting as if they have more time -- and certainly the United States knows if and when Israel is going to invade.
Our view is this: Israel will not accept the bombardment that is under way. Any cease-fire, from the Israeli point of view, would simply be a postponement of the issue. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government does not have the political freedom for action that a cease-fire requires. There is rare consensus in Israel that Hezbollah must be attacked. If Olmert settles for a diplomatic solution, he will have serious problems in the Knesset.
Therefore, it follows that the most likely explanation for the delay in a ground assault is that the Israelis are going to take some more time in deploying their forces at the border, allow the air campaign to continue for another day or two, accept the civilian casualties from Hezbollah's rockets and strike back some time this week. But with those rockets coming in, they don't have that many days to wait. Israel's government is not fractious. There is no sense of unease about the situation. Therefore, we have to stay with the view that a broader ground attack is likely early this week.
SIRENS going off now again in Haifa.....
Siniora's got a gun to his head. Where's the army? Have they picked a side yet?
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