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Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)
Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

Posted on 07/02/2006 6:24:13 PM PDT by lauriehelds

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

(Excerpt) Read more at today.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Mexico; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: calderon; elections; exitpolls; mexicanelection; mexico; obrador; pollsschmolls
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To: NoAction

Thanks, I did get around to learning more about the Zapatista Liberation Army and their masked leader Comandante Marcos.

According to what I viewed on Spanish language TV last night, they campaigned for Lopez Obrador.

Not good.

I remember when the uprising started in Chiapas... early '80s?


401 posted on 07/03/2006 1:50:52 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (God Bless Our Troops...including U.S. Border Patrol, America's First Line of Defense)
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To: Tigercap
I live in Mexico. My hard-working, educated amigos are VERY concerned. They recognize the problems with their government for sure, but the Socialist would be a NIGHTMARE.

Your real-life understanding of the problem, on the ground and experiencing it, is NOTHING compared to the knee-jerk, uneducated, ignorant opinions of many on this thread!!! I mean, if you have a keyboard your opinion is paramount, facts be damned.

People here just don't understand how Left the PRD is -- in fact El Norte is listing the PRD and PT together as a votinc bloc. YOU know what this means but 5% or fewer of the people on this thread do.

402 posted on 07/03/2006 2:00:11 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Let them die of thirst in the dark.)
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To: La Enchiladita
According to what I viewed on Spanish language TV last night, they campaigned for Lopez Obrador.

That is no more a surprise than Al Jazeera campaigning for J F'ing Kerry.

I specifically remember the last foray by the Zapatistas -- I was in Nuevo Leon at the time.

403 posted on 07/03/2006 2:03:20 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Let them die of thirst in the dark.)
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To: La Enchiladita
The remaining precincts are mainly in NW Mexico, specifically in Chihuahua and Durango, which are only 88%-89% in. Chiapas is 98.81% in. Mexico City proper (DF) is 99.17% in.

I think this race can be called now.
404 posted on 07/03/2006 2:05:22 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: La Enchiladita
With 98.39% in, Calderon's PAN leads by about 398,000 votes and a little over 1%. There are likely (at most) 596,000 votes yet to be counted. The socialist PRD would have to take about 67 percentage points more of the remaining vote than the PAN in the remaining precincts to take over the lead (i.e. 67%-0% or 80%-13% - the PAN can't take more than 17% of the remaining vote for the math to work). A PRD win is even close to a mathematical impossibility, if not a political one.

The bulk of the remaining vote is still from the PAN-prefering NW of Mexico.

It's all over but the protests, assuming the preliminary count is correct.


Actual Actual %
Projected (by State) Projected %
Calderon (PAN) 14,020,162 36.38%
14,251,608 36.42%
Dinosaur (PRI) 8,313,759 21.58%
8,452,343 21.60%
Socialist (PRD) 13,621,676 35.35%
13,807,222 35.29%
New Alliance 384,144 1.00%
391,116 1.00%
Alternative 1,085,756 2.82%
1,102,585 2.82%
Write-in 281,069 0.73%
285,366 0.73%
Null Votes 826,862 2.15%
839,362 2.15%
Total 38,533,428

39,129,602






Precincts Reporting 128,680



Total Precincts 130,788



PR% 98.39%




405 posted on 07/03/2006 5:45:40 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: LikeLight
one term of six years....

then live off whatever was appropriated

(stolen might be the more appropriate term)

406 posted on 07/03/2006 5:57:49 PM PDT by pointsal (Q)
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To: La Enchiladita

Now just waiting for Obrador's next move. Will he concede or take Mexico to the brink?


407 posted on 07/03/2006 6:04:44 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (NUTS!)
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To: conservative in nyc
It's all over but the protests, assuming the preliminary count is correct.

Anyone know if Obrador's people are still bottled up in the Zocolo?

I took a look at Obrador supporters last night (bandanas tied around face, clenched fists) and Calderon supporters (clean cut). Obrador's people look ready to rumble.

408 posted on 07/03/2006 6:09:10 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (NUTS!)
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To: All
How do you like this? Here is the red-blue divide of Mexico? (Red - Calderon, Blue - Obrador) Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
409 posted on 07/03/2006 6:29:38 PM PDT by Heartofsong83
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To: conservative in nyc

YESSSS..!!!


410 posted on 07/03/2006 7:09:40 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (God Bless Our Troops...including U.S. Border Patrol, America's First Line of Defense)
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To: Heartofsong83; conservative in nyc
I like it. Had heard the northern part is ranchland and more conservative. A very few outlying precincts in the red areas ("the PAN preferring NW" per conservative in nyc) have yet to report.

So.....

411 posted on 07/03/2006 7:13:58 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (God Bless Our Troops...including U.S. Border Patrol, America's First Line of Defense)
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To: La Enchiladita
There are a little over 2,000 precincts yet to report. About 40% (835) are in NW Mexico, and nearly a quarter (485) are in the State of Chihuahua. The Chihuahua precincts not yet counted are mainly in regions called "1. Juarez" (about 70), "4. Juarez" (about 70), and "9. Hidalgo del Parral" (over 200). PAN leads big in "4. Juarez" and "9. Hidalgo del Parral", and has a respectable lead in "1. Juarez", with competition from PRI. The PRD runs LAST among the three parties in each of these areas.

288 Precincts are out in NE Mexico, 272 in the extreme South and Yucatan, and 267 and 355 precincts are out in the two Central Mexico regions.
412 posted on 07/03/2006 7:30:59 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: BunnySlippers
I remember Lopez Obrador's statement last night, "We're going to the Zocalo." So, he meant it literally as some kind of *vigil*?

Mexico leftist vows to challenge Presidential vote

MEXICO CITY, July 3 (Reuters) - Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday he will legally challenge results that show him losing by 1 percentage point to the ruling party candidate in Mexico's tightly fought presidential election.

Lopez Obrador told reporters he had found irregularities in preliminary official returns showing him with 35.34 percent of Sunday's vote compared with 36.38 percent for Felipe Calderon, with 98.39 percent of votes counted.

Election authorities are expected to confirm that result after a recount later this week.

Lopez Obrador told reporters he will take his complaint to election tribunals rather than call for street protests.

"We are going to take this to the corresponding legal authorities," he vowed at his campaign headquarters.

413 posted on 07/03/2006 7:37:02 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (God Bless Our Troops...including U.S. Border Patrol, America's First Line of Defense)
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To: conservative in nyc

Ooops! More than a "few" precincts.


414 posted on 07/03/2006 7:39:57 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (God Bless Our Troops...including U.S. Border Patrol, America's First Line of Defense)
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To: conservative in nyc

Yet, the puter projects Calderon's lead will go up a couple of tenths of a percent, and his absolute total lead will end up at about 435,000. Unless there was substantial vote fraud, that lead will stand.


415 posted on 07/03/2006 7:43:41 PM PDT by Torie
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To: BunnySlippers

To the brink.

Manuel Lopez ObraGore.


416 posted on 07/03/2006 7:46:38 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (God Bless Our Troops...including U.S. Border Patrol, America's First Line of Defense)
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To: Heartofsong83

Very interesting. The south is very Indian ... some of it very dangerous to go into. I'm thinking Tehuantepec, Chiapas and further down. The people are very poor.

I even witnessed a near lynching myself during a political/union rally in Oaxaca many years ago although I must say Oaxaca teems with tourists.


417 posted on 07/03/2006 7:48:19 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (NUTS!)
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To: La Enchiladita
Okay....just tuning back into reality and the news. "Obragore"!! I love it!
418 posted on 07/03/2006 7:52:39 PM PDT by hispanarepublicana (Don't fall for the soft bigotry of assuming all Hispanics are pro-amnesty. www.dontspeakforme.org)
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To: La Enchiladita



Ha! Good one! Obregorons.


419 posted on 07/03/2006 7:52:41 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (NUTS!)
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To: Heartofsong83

Dang! The blue parts are all the hot vacation spots!


420 posted on 07/03/2006 7:53:58 PM PDT by hispanarepublicana (Don't fall for the soft bigotry of assuming all Hispanics are pro-amnesty. www.dontspeakforme.org)
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