Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)

Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

[lauriehelds]

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

[La Enchiladita]

Thanks, I did get around to learning more about the Zapatista Liberation Army and their masked leader Comandante Marcos.

According to what I viewed on Spanish language TV last night, they campaigned for Lopez Obrador.

Not good.

I remember when the uprising started in Chiapas... early '80s?

[freedumb2003]

I live in Mexico. My hard-working, educated amigos are VERY concerned. They recognize the problems with their government for sure, but the Socialist would be a NIGHTMARE.

Your real-life understanding of the problem, on the ground and experiencing it, is NOTHING compared to the knee-jerk, uneducated, ignorant opinions of many on this thread!!! I mean, if you have a keyboard your opinion is paramount, facts be damned.

People here just don't understand how Left the PRD is -- in fact El Norte is listing the PRD and PT together as a votinc bloc. YOU know what this means but 5% or fewer of the people on this thread do.

[freedumb2003]

According to what I viewed on Spanish language TV last night, they campaigned for Lopez Obrador.

That is no more a surprise than Al Jazeera campaigning for J F'ing Kerry.

I specifically remember the last foray by the Zapatistas -- I was in Nuevo Leon at the time.

[conservative in nyc]

The remaining precincts are mainly in NW Mexico, specifically in Chihuahua and Durango, which are only 88%-89% in. Chiapas is 98.81% in. Mexico City proper (DF) is 99.17% in.

I think this race can be called now.

[conservative in nyc]

With 98.39% in, Calderon's PAN leads by about 398,000 votes and a little over 1%. There are likely (at most) 596,000 votes yet to be counted. The socialist PRD would have to take about 67 percentage points more of the remaining vote than the PAN in the remaining precincts to take over the lead (i.e. 67%-0% or 80%-13% - the PAN can't take more than 17% of the remaining vote for the math to work). A PRD win is even close to a mathematical impossibility, if not a political one.

The bulk of the remaining vote is still from the PAN-prefering NW of Mexico.

It's all over but the protests, assuming the preliminary count is correct.

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon (PAN)	14,020,162	36.38%		14,251,608	36.42%
Dinosaur (PRI)	8,313,759	21.58%		8,452,343	21.60%
Socialist (PRD)	13,621,676	35.35%		13,807,222	35.29%
New Alliance	384,144	1.00%		391,116	1.00%
Alternative	1,085,756	2.82%		1,102,585	2.82%
Write-in	281,069	0.73%		285,366	0.73%
Null Votes	826,862	2.15%		839,362	2.15%
Total	38,533,428			39,129,602
Precincts Reporting	128,680
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	98.39%

[pointsal]

one term of six years....

then live off whatever was appropriated

(stolen might be the more appropriate term)

[BunnySlippers]

Now just waiting for Obrador's next move. Will he concede or take Mexico to the brink?

[BunnySlippers]

It's all over but the protests, assuming the preliminary count is correct.

Anyone know if Obrador's people are still bottled up in the Zocolo?

I took a look at Obrador supporters last night (bandanas tied around face, clenched fists) and Calderon supporters (clean cut). Obrador's people look ready to rumble.

[Heartofsong83]

How do you like this? Here is the red-blue divide of Mexico? (Red - Calderon, Blue - Obrador)

[La Enchiladita]

YESSSS..!!!

[La Enchiladita]

I like it. Had heard the northern part is ranchland and more conservative. A very few outlying precincts in the red areas ("the PAN preferring NW" per conservative in nyc) have yet to report.

So.....

[conservative in nyc]

There are a little over 2,000 precincts yet to report. About 40% (835) are in NW Mexico, and nearly a quarter (485) are in the State of Chihuahua. The Chihuahua precincts not yet counted are mainly in regions called "1. Juarez" (about 70), "4. Juarez" (about 70), and "9. Hidalgo del Parral" (over 200). PAN leads big in "4. Juarez" and "9. Hidalgo del Parral", and has a respectable lead in "1. Juarez", with competition from PRI. The PRD runs LAST among the three parties in each of these areas.

288 Precincts are out in NE Mexico, 272 in the extreme South and Yucatan, and 267 and 355 precincts are out in the two Central Mexico regions.

[La Enchiladita]

I remember Lopez Obrador's statement last night, "We're going to the Zocalo." So, he meant it literally as some kind of *vigil*?

Mexico leftist vows to challenge Presidential vote

MEXICO CITY, July 3 (Reuters) - Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday he will legally challenge results that show him losing by 1 percentage point to the ruling party candidate in Mexico's tightly fought presidential election.

Lopez Obrador told reporters he had found irregularities in preliminary official returns showing him with 35.34 percent of Sunday's vote compared with 36.38 percent for Felipe Calderon, with 98.39 percent of votes counted.

Election authorities are expected to confirm that result after a recount later this week.

Lopez Obrador told reporters he will take his complaint to election tribunals rather than call for street protests.

"We are going to take this to the corresponding legal authorities," he vowed at his campaign headquarters.

[La Enchiladita]

Ooops! More than a "few" precincts.

[Torie]

Yet, the puter projects Calderon's lead will go up a couple of tenths of a percent, and his absolute total lead will end up at about 435,000. Unless there was substantial vote fraud, that lead will stand.

[La Enchiladita]

To the brink.

Manuel Lopez ObraGore.

[BunnySlippers]

Very interesting. The south is very Indian ... some of it very dangerous to go into. I'm thinking Tehuantepec, Chiapas and further down. The people are very poor.

I even witnessed a near lynching myself during a political/union rally in Oaxaca many years ago although I must say Oaxaca teems with tourists.

[hispanarepublicana]

Okay....just tuning back into reality and the news. "Obragore"!! I love it!

[BunnySlippers]

Ha! Good one! Obregorons.

[hispanarepublicana]

Dang! The blue parts are all the hot vacation spots!