Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)

Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

[lauriehelds]

Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

[dljordan]

I'm looking into my crystal ball and seeing riots beginning shortly in Mexico.

[FastCoyote]

"With a little over 83% in, Calderon's PAN is ahead by 1.16%."

My shares of Cemex are up by $3.00 I hope that is investors predicting Calderon hangs on.

[Reaganez]

With 95.7% of the precints counted.

Calderon lead by 397,434 votes or 1.05%

In Calderon states, 94% of the precints have reported.

In Obrador states, 97% of the precints have reported.

Looks good. Not a mortal lock but looks good.

[staytrue]

I am not impressed with Mexicans as "hard workers", if they were really such hard workers they would do the "hard work" of cleaning up their own country instead of simply fleeing to ours!

A good economy requires capital and labor working together. The mexican govt. (and the democrats in the USA) has a nasty habit of confiscating capital. NO capital means, it is pointless to work in mexico.

China (and Indonoesia) is very good at having its police state protect capital. That is why they are gaining ground fast and mexico is not.

[staytrue]

Also, I read that a huge, huge thunderstorm hit Mexico City during the last house of polling and this may have stunted AMLO's vote total. Maybe we should thank divine providence for this PAN victory

In 2004, in Ohio, it drizzled all day over the democrat stronghold of cleveland. Most of the rest of the state stayed dry.

Off subject, this is another reason the electoral college is better than popular vote. Bad weather usually will affect only one state or two and those states are rarely going to be swing states. In most cases, the EC will be superior to popular vote although there will never be a perfect election system.

[BunnySlippers]

I am so sorry to hear that. What crazy place is open on Monday?

The New York Stock Exchange. Remember, banks and financial institutions are not allowed to close for more than 72 hours ... by law. I just stayed up all night ... but on the good side, the market closes at 10AM here in Los Angeles. Yeah!

[BunnySlippers]

Looks good. Not a mortal lock but looks good.

It does look good. Wonder if they have creative lawyers like we had in Florida some years back.

[BunnySlippers]

(Moonbat conservatives-those who would rather have the democrats win.)

So true. They're all over the Mexican election as well.

[staytrue]

In post 359, we find 1.97% or 650,000 were NULL VOTES.

Here comes hanging chads, and Florida 2000 all over again.

[napscoordinator]

The New York Stock Exchange. Remember, banks and financial institutions are not allowed to close for more than 72 hours ... by law. I just stayed up all night ... but on the good side, the market closes at 10AM here in Los Angeles. Yeah!


Cool. I am glad you will finish early. I did not know about that rule. Thanks for the info. Have a happy 4th!!!

[napscoordinator]

The New York Stock Exchange. Remember, banks and financial institutions are not allowed to close for more than 72 hours ... by law. I just stayed up all night ... but on the good side, the market closes at 10AM here in Los Angeles. Yeah!


Cool. I am glad you will finish early. I did not know about that rule. Thanks for the info. Have a happy 4th!!!

[daviscupper]

Good point. I never thought of that.

[Reaganez]

"In post 359, we find 1.97% or 650,000 were NULL VOTES.

Here comes hanging chads, and Florida 2000 all over again."

There are no electronic vote machines in Mexico.

If you saw the Iraq elections it is similar.

There count is manual with reps from all major parties and sometimes an independent oberver.

In Mexico it is a legal obligation to vote.

When you want something fixed at city hall you have to show your voter ID card and it must show you voted.

Some people figure they want need anything from the government through the next election cycle(everything from needing a birth certificate to getting a passport)so they don't vote.

Others don't like any candidate so they go to vote and put "F#&8 you, YOu all are corrupt" and those votes get nullified. Others vote for Mickey Mouse(Miguelito). Some show up on voting rolls in two residences. ETc ETc.

[A CA Guy]

Drug Lord Party A, B or C?

EXACTLY, the drug cartels own Mexico and any candidate they did not want running they would simply kill.

Until the drug lords are dead, Mexico is dead.

Everything about Mexico is us and how they can access us (mostly in criminal ways).

[Tigercap]

I live in Mexico. My hard-working, educated amigos are VERY concerned. They recognize the problems with their government for sure, but the Socialist would be a NIGHTMARE.

I'm afraid this isn't over - with nulified votes and the pure evil of communists, they will be just like Gore - try to selectively count/recount until they find a winning combination.
The Socialist also tried to prevent those over-seas from having their votes count - doesn't that sound familiar too.

Gore set a horrible selfish example for the world.

[Reaganez]

Gay, Retarded, and Mostly Retarded.

Yeah, And the Oil Companies run the USA.

The Bush family made their forturne selling arms to Nazi Germany.

And the Bush Family gets kickbacks from the House of Saud.

Will the leftist conspiracy theories ever end?

And on FR?

[conservative in nyc]

97.72% reporting. Calderon has a .98% lead. Projections are for that lead to grow, though, as PAN country in Northwestern Mexico is the most out. The PRD socialists would have to pick up about 376,000 votes out of an expected 832,000 (i.e. get about 45% points of the vote higher than the PAN in the remaining precincts). I don't think that's possible absent fraud. The expected vote totals continue to shrink, suggesting the recent votes are coming in from smaller precincts or precincts with lower turnout.

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon (PAN)	13,950,885	36.37%		14,286,681	36.46%
Dinosaur (PRI)	8,263,252	21.54%		8,452,952	21.57%
Socialist (PRD)	13,575,091	35.39%		13,826,355	35.28%
New Alliance	382,853	1.00%		392,156	1.00%
Alternative	1,082,390	2.82%		1,105,422	2.82%
Write-in	280,486	0.73%		286,329	0.73%
Null Votes	822,703	2.14%		839,821	2.14%
Total	38,357,660			39,189,716
Precincts Reporting	127,811
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	97.72%

[Reaganez]

Particulary in southern Mexico, it is the extemely remote precints that have not reported.

Some precints(Casillas) you need horses or canoes to get to them.

I am not kidding. Although these are small precints without many votes.

Looks good though.

The current Members of the Federal Election Institute were appointed by Fox and confirmed by the Mexican Senate. 30% of the seats go to each major party and 10% go to "non-partisan" candidates. It is a reasonably trustworthy institution. At least some of the members would scream bloody murder if there were any obvious fraud.

[conservative in nyc]

98.11% is in. There shouldn't be more than 687,000 votes left (and likely less, since the projected total continues to decrease, suggesting the remaining precincts are smaller than average - as you said, likely extremely rural areas). PAN is ahead by 385,000. The PRD socialists would need to beat Calderon's PAN by about 55 percentage points of the multi-party vote in the outstanding precincts (i.e. something like 70%-15% or 55%-0%) in order to win. It ain't happening.

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon (PAN)	13,996,767	36.38%		14,274,202	36.44%
Dinosaur (PRI)	8,295,366	21.56%		8,457,353	21.59%
Socialist (PRD)	13,611,684	35.37%		13,822,281	35.28%
New Alliance	383,781	1.00%		391,808	1.00%
Alternative	1,084,991	2.82%		1,104,426	2.82%
Write-in	280,969	0.73%		286,017	0.73%
Null Votes	825,483	2.15%		839,954	2.14%
Total	38,479,041			39,176,041
Precincts Reporting	128,313
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	98.11%

[La Enchiladita]

Re: post 399

Thanks. This looks good, unless all those outlying precincts are in Chiapas. Heh..heh.