Posted on 07/02/2006 6:24:13 PM PDT by lauriehelds
Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.
The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.
Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.
El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.
The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.
(Excerpt) Read more at today.reuters.com ...
It appears the big Mexico City Obrador vote has been counted. The non-PAN voters in the rest of the country seem to like PRI to a greater degree than the M.C. voters. The drop in Calderon's share has slowed, and the share increase for Obrador has turned around. I have the feeling we've seen the closest margin, with it hitting .89, and we'll now see it back over one shortly and headed upwards toward your predictions, though I still think it'll be a bit tighter than predicted.
Looks like you're going to hit the PRI prediction right on the nose.
No more local TV coverage.
We can all take a nap now.
Nite, Bunny Slippers, it's been nice chatting.
We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language...
May I please at least laugh in Spanish?
That's pretty much in line with the projections. Almost all of Mexico City and most of the pro-Socialist South of Mexico is in. The more PAN-friendly North is still out.
I assume reforma is reputable?
I have NO idea. Never heard of it before tonight.
Wednesday is a long way away.
You're correct about Mexico City being in.
Torie's projections have been pretty much the same from the start, and I haven't seen much variation between the by state and Torie's by region projections since I began tracking the numbers about an hour ago.
My projections are just straight line interpolations of each Mexican state's vote, added together. I have no way of knowing if some Mexican state is like Pennsylvania, where the Republican vote tends to come in late, or like Michigan, where Detroit always seems to hold out for the Democrats.
It is generally agreed, the result will not be definite until Wednesday.
|
Actual | Actual % |
|
Projected (by State) | Projected % |
Calderon | 12,027,087 | 37.08% |
|
15,069,094 | 37.33% |
Dinosaur | 6,546,019 | 20.18% |
|
8,340,765 | 20.66% |
Socialist | 11,693,441 | 36.05% |
|
14,259,447 | 35.32% |
New Alliance | 319,515 | 0.98% |
|
396,826 | 0.98% |
Alternative | 975,658 | 3.01% |
|
1,188,486 | 2.94% |
Write-in | 240,097 | 0.74% |
|
304,755 | 0.75% |
Null Votes | 637,414 | 1.96% |
|
808,102 | 2.00% |
Total | 32,439,231 |
|
|
40,367,474 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Precincts Reporting | 103,429 |
|
|
|
|
Total Precincts | 130,788 |
|
|
|
|
PR% | 79.08% |
|
|
|
|
Or like in Illinois where the Democrats gain 100,000 votes when the graveyard returns come in.
It's PAN, Calderon's party, not PRI, with the 1% margin.
The PRI is in third place.
Too bad the DUmmies are too ignorant about foreign politics to be sad about this : )
|
Actual | Actual % |
|
Projected (by State) | Projected % |
Calderon | 12,164,449 | 37.06% |
|
15,024,253 | 37.27% |
Dinosaur | 6,650,727 | 20.26% |
|
8,352,858 | 20.72% |
Socialist | 11,814,544 | 35.99% |
|
14,236,825 | 35.32% |
New Alliance | 324,245 | 0.99% |
|
397,363 | 0.99% |
Alternative | 983,210 | 3.00% |
|
1,182,480 | 2.93% |
Write-in | 242,983 | 0.74% |
|
303,752 | 0.75% |
Null Votes | 647,582 | 1.97% |
|
809,528 | 2.01% |
Total | 32,827,740 |
|
|
40,307,058 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Precincts Reporting | 104,881 |
|
|
|
|
Total Precincts | 130,788 |
|
|
|
|
PR% | 80.19% |
|
|
|
|
I checked over there earlier this evening. They were hell bent for Obrador.
Yippee!! I wonder who they'll declare El Presidente on Wednesday though.
I'm surprised you haven't heard of him. The U.S. media loves that guy. Basically, he controls some rebel group in Chiapas. Every few years, he takes over a town, then when the Federales are sent in, he hides back in the hills. Then our media goes in and gives him long, loving interviews for "60 Minutes" and other news shows so he can give his Indian rights/Socialism/Secession spiel. Then everyone forgets about him until the next time he pops up.
That's precisely what's been happening for the last half hour. Apparently, out in the boonies, they're fonder of PRI than in the city, and they dislike PRD to a greater degree than they dislike PAN.
|
Actual | Actual % |
|
Projected (by State) | Projected % |
Calderon (PAN) | 12,510,324 | 36.99% |
|
14,905,931 | 37.13% |
Dinosaur (PRI) | 6,923,077 | 20.47% |
|
8,384,897 | 20.89% |
Socialist (PRD) | 12,117,624 | 35.83% |
|
14,171,537 | 35.30% |
New Alliance | 336,397 | 0.99% |
|
398,432 | 0.99% |
Alternative | 1,003,333 | 2.97% |
|
1,168,826 | 2.91% |
Write-in | 250,698 | 0.74% |
|
301,638 | 0.75% |
Null Votes | 676,074 | 2.00% |
|
815,434 | 2.03% |
Total | 33,817,527 |
|
|
40,146,695 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Precincts Reporting | 108,655 |
|
|
|
|
Total Precincts | 130,788 |
|
|
|
|
PR% | 83.08% |
|
|
|
|
Thank you for doing this.
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