[conservative in nyc]

It's PAN, Calderon's party, not PRI, with the 1% margin.

Whoops.

Anyway, with over 80% in, PAN is still up by slightly over 1%. For some reason, the model still predicts the dinosaur PRI party will pick up votes at the expense of Obrador's PRD, with only slight gains by Calderon's PAN:

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon	12,164,449	37.06%		15,024,253	37.27%
Dinosaur	6,650,727	20.26%		8,352,858	20.72%
Socialist	11,814,544	35.99%		14,236,825	35.32%
New Alliance	324,245	0.99%		397,363	0.99%
Alternative	983,210	3.00%		1,182,480	2.93%
Write-in	242,983	0.74%		303,752	0.75%
Null Votes	647,582	1.97%		809,528	2.01%
Total	32,827,740			40,307,058
Precincts Reporting	104,881
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	80.19%

[BunnySlippers]

Yippee!! I wonder who they'll declare El Presidente on Wednesday though.

[ArmstedFragg]

the model still predicts the dinosaur PRI party will pick up votes at the expense of Obrador's PRD, with only slight gains by Calderon's PAN

That's precisely what's been happening for the last half hour. Apparently, out in the boonies, they're fonder of PRI than in the city, and they dislike PRD to a greater degree than they dislike PAN.