Mexico election too close to call (exit poll released)

Reuters ^ | 7/2/06 | Kieran Murray and Alistair Bell

[ArmstedFragg]

It appears the big Mexico City Obrador vote has been counted. The non-PAN voters in the rest of the country seem to like PRI to a greater degree than the M.C. voters. The drop in Calderon's share has slowed, and the share increase for Obrador has turned around. I have the feeling we've seen the closest margin, with it hitting .89, and we'll now see it back over one shortly and headed upwards toward your predictions, though I still think it'll be a bit tighter than predicted.

Looks like you're going to hit the PRI prediction right on the nose.

[La Enchiladita]

No more local TV coverage.

We can all take a nap now.

Nite, Bunny Slippers, it's been nice chatting.

[YCTHouston]

We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language...

[La Enchiladita]

May I please at least laugh in Spanish?

[conservative in nyc]

That's pretty much in line with the projections. Almost all of Mexico City and most of the pro-Socialist South of Mexico is in. The more PAN-friendly North is still out.

I assume reforma is reputable?

[La Enchiladita]

I have NO idea. Never heard of it before tonight.

[BunnySlippers]

Wednesday is a long way away.

[conservative in nyc]

You're correct about Mexico City being in.

Torie's projections have been pretty much the same from the start, and I haven't seen much variation between the by state and Torie's by region projections since I began tracking the numbers about an hour ago.

My projections are just straight line interpolations of each Mexican state's vote, added together. I have no way of knowing if some Mexican state is like Pennsylvania, where the Republican vote tends to come in late, or like Michigan, where Detroit always seems to hold out for the Democrats.

[La Enchiladita]

It is generally agreed, the result will not be definite until Wednesday.

[conservative in nyc]

The PRI margin is now slightly above 1%, with 79.08% in:

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon	12,027,087	37.08%		15,069,094	37.33%
Dinosaur	6,546,019	20.18%		8,340,765	20.66%
Socialist	11,693,441	36.05%		14,259,447	35.32%
New Alliance	319,515	0.98%		396,826	0.98%
Alternative	975,658	3.01%		1,188,486	2.94%
Write-in	240,097	0.74%		304,755	0.75%
Null Votes	637,414	1.96%		808,102	2.00%
Total	32,439,231			40,367,474
Precincts Reporting	103,429
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	79.08%

[LukeL]

Or like in Illinois where the Democrats gain 100,000 votes when the graveyard returns come in.

[John Valentine]

It's PAN, Calderon's party, not PRI, with the 1% margin.

The PRI is in third place.

[Democratshavenobrains]

Too bad the DUmmies are too ignorant about foreign politics to be sad about this : )

[conservative in nyc]

It's PAN, Calderon's party, not PRI, with the 1% margin.

Whoops.

Anyway, with over 80% in, PAN is still up by slightly over 1%. For some reason, the model still predicts the dinosaur PRI party will pick up votes at the expense of Obrador's PRD, with only slight gains by Calderon's PAN:

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon	12,164,449	37.06%		15,024,253	37.27%
Dinosaur	6,650,727	20.26%		8,352,858	20.72%
Socialist	11,814,544	35.99%		14,236,825	35.32%
New Alliance	324,245	0.99%		397,363	0.99%
Alternative	983,210	3.00%		1,182,480	2.93%
Write-in	242,983	0.74%		303,752	0.75%
Null Votes	647,582	1.97%		809,528	2.01%
Total	32,827,740			40,307,058
Precincts Reporting	104,881
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	80.19%

[BunnySlippers]

I checked over there earlier this evening. They were hell bent for Obrador.

[BunnySlippers]

Yippee!! I wonder who they'll declare El Presidente on Wednesday though.

[NoAction]

I'm surprised you haven't heard of him. The U.S. media loves that guy. Basically, he controls some rebel group in Chiapas. Every few years, he takes over a town, then when the Federales are sent in, he hides back in the hills. Then our media goes in and gives him long, loving interviews for "60 Minutes" and other news shows so he can give his Indian rights/Socialism/Secession spiel. Then everyone forgets about him until the next time he pops up.

[ArmstedFragg]

the model still predicts the dinosaur PRI party will pick up votes at the expense of Obrador's PRD, with only slight gains by Calderon's PAN

That's precisely what's been happening for the last half hour. Apparently, out in the boonies, they're fonder of PRI than in the city, and they dislike PRD to a greater degree than they dislike PAN.

[conservative in nyc]

With a little over 83% in, Calderon's PAN is ahead by 1.16%. The projections still call for more PRI strengthening. Note also that the projected vote total has been falling almost every iteration, suggesting that smaller (likely rural) precincts are now being counted.

The only caveat: Extreme Southern Mexico is the most out. The PRD leads in most of that area; but Veracruz, which is pretty evenly split between the PRD and PAN, seems the most out in the region.

	Actual	Actual %		Projected (by State)	Projected %
Calderon (PAN)	12,510,324	36.99%		14,905,931	37.13%
Dinosaur (PRI)	6,923,077	20.47%		8,384,897	20.89%
Socialist (PRD)	12,117,624	35.83%		14,171,537	35.30%
New Alliance	336,397	0.99%		398,432	0.99%
Alternative	1,003,333	2.97%		1,168,826	2.91%
Write-in	250,698	0.74%		301,638	0.75%
Null Votes	676,074	2.00%		815,434	2.03%
Total	33,817,527			40,146,695
Precincts Reporting	108,655
Total Precincts	130,788
PR%	83.08%

[BunnySlippers]

Thank you for doing this.