SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- July 2006 Update

RobFromGa | July 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 7/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT


SAFE SEATS (GOP)


IN- (R= current seatholder)- Lugar safe
ME- "R"- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 7 safe + 40 carryovers = 47 minimum


SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman/Lamont safe for Dems (DEM Primary Aug 8! Lieberman 50/50 vs. liberal Dem Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe for Dems
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe (unless darkhorse Tommy Thompson runs-very unlikely)
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Socialiast will win seat easily

12 safe + 27 carryovers =39 minimum

I see fourteen "Contests" at present (July 1), ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. (I= incumbent) The CONTESTS as I see them are:

LIKELY GOP
AZ- R seat- Kyl(I) vs. Pederson (90% chance GOP)
VA- R seat- Allen(I) vs. Webb (90% chance GOP)
TN- R seat- open* (Frist seat) vs. Ford(D) (80% chance GOP) *PRIMARY AUG 3! (running: former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former U.S. Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary)

LEANING GOP
MO- R seat- Talent(I) vs. McCaskill (70% chance GOP)
OH- "R" seat- DeWine(RINO) vs. Brown...DeWine has opened a small lead (60% chance GOP)
MT- R seat- Burns(I) vs. Tester (60% chance GOP)

TOSSUPS
MN- D seat- open* (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy(GOP) (50% chance GOP) *PRIMARY Sept 12!
NJ- D seat- Menendez(I) vs. Kean(RINO)... Menendez has opened slight lead (50% chance RINO)
WA- D seat- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick...McGavick closing small gap (50% chance GOP)
RI- "R" seat- Chafee(I)... 50/50 to lose to conservative Laffey in primary, Laffey almost no chance in Nov (50% chance liberal RINO, 49% liberal Dem, 1% conservative)

LEANING DEM
PA- R- Santorum(I) vs. Casey...Santorum still losing by double digits? (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open* (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (40% chance GOP) *DEM PRIMARY SEPT 12! Cardin leads Mfume
MI- D- Stabenow vs. unknown* (30% chance GOP) *GOP Primary Aug 8 (running: minister Keith Butler, County Sheriff Mike Bouchard)... GOP winner will need DeVos (Gov race vs Granholm) coattails in November

LIKELY DEM
NE- D- Nelson(I) facing Pete Ricketts (Ameritrade) (20% chance GOP)... Nelson may be as conservative as Ricketts anyway

[Clintonfatigued]

Good analysis, though I disagree on some particulars.

Conrad Burns of Montana belongs in the toss-up catagory at best, Leaning Democratic at worst. Most polls show him trailing, albeit by slim margins. The main problem is his close ties to the Jack Abramoff scandal. Another problem is that Democrat Jon Tester has turned out to be a stronger candidate than expected. With his upbeat personality and close ties to agriculture, Tester is a younger, left-wing version of Conrad Burns.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think you should have the Jeff Bingaman/Allen McCulloch race in the Likely Democrat catagory. McCulloch is running more competitively than John Raese is against Robert Byrd (or Katherine Harris is against Bill Nelson).

[fieldmarshaldj]

Corker's attempt at primary theft with a plurality in my state would put it at Lean R, if not toss-up, as he is the worst of the 3 to hold the seat for us. I consider him to be a liberal 'Rat trojan horse phony, and a lot of Conservatives (myself included) will leave that vote blank in November.

[RobFromGa]

Montana is a tough one to predict at this stage, IMO. It could swing to Dem but I think that there are a lot of positive things still to happen before November and the Democrats are showing themselves to be unstable...

Before it is over, the national implications of this race will come into play and I'm not sure Montana wants to vote 100% with Kerry/Kennedy. We'll see.

[Clintonfatigued]

Ed Bryant needs to expand his appeal beyond being a conservative and run a regional campaign. He needs to focus on winning heavily in western TN, not only in the Memphis suburbs but in the western rural areas around Jackson.

Hilleary will win the northeastern corner of TN, while Corker will win Chattanooga and the Nashville area.

[AntiGuv]

That one has crossed my mind but I don't know much about it. I had made a mental note to review it when the June 30 fundraising figures come out in a couple weeks. That'll be the key factor that'll determine whether NM might make the list. If the fundraising isn't there for a Senate challenger 3-4 months before election day, then he can safely be written off. As of March 31, McCulloch had only $128,813 cash on hand from $231,162, and that's not nearly enough to get listed as competitive.

[crasher]

My changes would be: move NJ to Lean D. TN to Lean R. WA to Lean D. MI Likely D. MD Likely D also. CT SAFE D

I would keep WV as Likely D, but it is darn close to SAFE D in my opinion.

As way of reference, I count tossups as between 40 to 60 percent chance of turnover. Lean as 40 to 15 percent chance. Likely as 15 to 5 percent chance of turnover. Safe, less than 5. These figures are arbitrary, but that is just me.

[crasher]

I also have RI as a milimeter from Lean D, though I too would keep as tossup for now. Reason is the possibility he loses primary. I wouldn't hazzard what odds are of that happening - and haven't followed all that closely - but when you combine the primary issue with the basically 50/50 odds he would have in general if he does win primary, I give the Dems basically a 60 percent chance to capture the seat.

[Clintonfatigued]

On the GOP Club section, the latest Rasmussen Reports has a poll on that race. It shows Bingaman leading by 59% to 33%.

[dallascowboys4evr]

Montana leans Dem for sure. I think your being a bit to optemistic.

[kcbc2001]

The main reason why there aren't the Bouchard or Butler signs around anywhere is because they are waiting to see who wins the primary before they really start campaigning. But honestly, the only places I've seen Bouchard/Butler signs/stickers, etc have been at the GOP events held around town (metro Detroit). And I thought I'd be seeing more as they are candidates from this area.

From what I hear the Party isn't going to start campaigning heavily for anyone until after the primaries.

I can understand why you are "negative", but I know people who voted for Granholm who are going to be voting for DeVos this time around and if they are open to DeVos, they might be open to other Republican candidates down the ballot.

[Tall_Texan]

In other words, if the GOP holds the safe and heavy-GOP leaners, that gets them to 50 and the Dems would have to sweep the rest just to have a 50-50 tie where Cheney breaks the tie. That would be sweet if we could just count on the GOP to hold their RINOs in check, but we all know they can't.

[Torie]

Good catch about MI. I missed that. I wonder what antiguv knows that we don't?

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[crasher]

I should also have said that I right now view TN as absolutely on the border of tossup and LEAN R. About 60 percent chance of GOP victory imo.

what is your latest House rankings. And antiguv, what about Governor rankings?

[Torie]

I haven't kept up on the House ratings, but I don't think anything has happened to suggest that the projected GOP loss is other than in the 10-15 range. The Bonilla seat is in play obviously. I don't think Ney will win if he is on the ballot, but I have a feeling he won't be. The DeLay seat is complicated by a lawsuit.

[no dems]

RobFromGa,

Thanks for your hard work and this post. I love posts like this.

I really see nothing, at this time, I could disagree with. I do think, however, that I would give the GOP a little bit better chance in Michigan.

Thanks again. Great job!!!

no dems

[AntiGuv]

In May EPIC/MRI had Stabenow virtually Safe at 57% to 26%, but leaving that aside (and their Jan. poll was a much narrower 52% to 41%) the past six polls (from three pollsters) have given a very consistent picture:

Stabenow: 50%, 48%, 49%, 48%, 51%, 48%
Bouchard: 37%, 36%, 36%, 38%, 37%, 37%

For an incumbent that is what I would categorize as a strong Lean, but short of Likely. Moreover, I think Granholm's deteriorating position may undermine Stabenow as well.

[crasher]

btw, the new Cookpolitical House race chart is up. He again slowly increased by some the vulnerability of GOP seats. Only now, he does it while by most measures the environment is better - and a number of races look better -than they did a month ago. He is slowly making up for being way, way wrong for at least the previous four months and hoping nobody noticed. He is better than this... I don't understand why he still is so reactionay in his rankings in the House this cycle. I don't get it.

[no dems]

Conrad Burns: I watched the debate the other night between him and Tester. I think the ol' fart is going to lose. He was definitely lacking in substance and the "good ol' boy" corny jokes can only take you so far these days.