SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- July 2006 Update

RobFromGa | July 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 7/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT


SAFE SEATS (GOP)


IN- (R= current seatholder)- Lugar safe
ME- "R"- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 7 safe + 40 carryovers = 47 minimum


SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman/Lamont safe for Dems (DEM Primary Aug 8! Lieberman 50/50 vs. liberal Dem Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe for Dems
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe (unless darkhorse Tommy Thompson runs-very unlikely)
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Socialiast will win seat easily

12 safe + 27 carryovers =39 minimum

I see fourteen "Contests" at present (July 1), ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. (I= incumbent) The CONTESTS as I see them are:

LIKELY GOP
AZ- R seat- Kyl(I) vs. Pederson (90% chance GOP)
VA- R seat- Allen(I) vs. Webb (90% chance GOP)
TN- R seat- open* (Frist seat) vs. Ford(D) (80% chance GOP) *PRIMARY AUG 3! (running: former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former U.S. Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary)

LEANING GOP
MO- R seat- Talent(I) vs. McCaskill (70% chance GOP)
OH- "R" seat- DeWine(RINO) vs. Brown...DeWine has opened a small lead (60% chance GOP)
MT- R seat- Burns(I) vs. Tester (60% chance GOP)

TOSSUPS
MN- D seat- open* (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy(GOP) (50% chance GOP) *PRIMARY Sept 12!
NJ- D seat- Menendez(I) vs. Kean(RINO)... Menendez has opened slight lead (50% chance RINO)
WA- D seat- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick...McGavick closing small gap (50% chance GOP)
RI- "R" seat- Chafee(I)... 50/50 to lose to conservative Laffey in primary, Laffey almost no chance in Nov (50% chance liberal RINO, 49% liberal Dem, 1% conservative)

LEANING DEM
PA- R- Santorum(I) vs. Casey...Santorum still losing by double digits? (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open* (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (40% chance GOP) *DEM PRIMARY SEPT 12! Cardin leads Mfume
MI- D- Stabenow vs. unknown* (30% chance GOP) *GOP Primary Aug 8 (running: minister Keith Butler, County Sheriff Mike Bouchard)... GOP winner will need DeVos (Gov race vs Granholm) coattails in November

LIKELY DEM
NE- D- Nelson(I) facing Pete Ricketts (Ameritrade) (20% chance GOP)... Nelson may be as conservative as Ricketts anyway

[RobFromGa]

The election is now 4 months away, here are my latest predictions, including the Freeper input from the last month SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- June 2006 thread.

Soliciting Freeper input...

Also post any information that may shed light on any of these races, especially as it would cause a change in this analysis...

I still see ZERO CHANCE that the Dems take the Senate in the 2006 midterm.

[RobFromGa]

SENATE 2006 MIDTERMS prediction updates...

Soliciting Freeper comments and input, elections are four months away!

[12th_Monkey]

Thanks for the update. We still have to get the voters out

[PGalt]

Thanks for the update/predictions. Interesting.

[scrabblehack]

It looks like about a 1% chance if they're statistically independent.

[Foolsgold]

What about the house race?

[Quix]

Nevertheless, I take those as prayer points of importance.

I believe that a judge will resign from the Supreme Court in July. And that the battle for ?her? replacement will be fierce and bleed into the Nov election.

We must NOT become complacant.

[AmishDude]

Small correction: God may have something to say about Byrd retaining his seat.

[AntiGuv]

I just redid my Senate ratings a couple days ago, so here they are:

Safe Democratic

California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (I)*
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic

Connecticut
Nebraska
Pennsylvania (R)
West Virginia

Lean Democratic

Maryland*
Michigan
Minnesota*
Montana (R)

Toss Up

Missouri (R)
New Jersey (D)
Ohio (R)
Rhode Island (R)
Washington (D)

Lean Republican

Arizona
Virginia

Likely Republican

Tennessee*

Safe Republican

Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Missouri is teetering between Toss Up and Lean Dem.

[rhinohunter]

Tradesports has Burns losing in MT.

Hope you're right.

[rhinohunter]

I believe that a judge will resign from the Supreme Court in July.

What makes you believe this?

[AlaskaErik]

WV- D-KKK Grand Kleagle Byrd safe

[Torie]

Good list, except that I think Montana is the most close to Likely Dem (I would almost put it there but not quite), Washington is still lean Dem (the polls are noise, and most of the erosion from Cantwell is from the left, and they will come home), and I think Virginia is likely GOP. That 10% poll was noise; it is probably more per the later poll, if not as much as the later poll. Oh yes, Connecticut is safe Dem. The Pubbie has little chance of winning.

[appeal2]

Not buying Stabenow for reelection, economy in MI is bad news.

MO is always rated as a tossup in every election and with exception of governor's race has gone repub

MD still a hard one to call, Steele is an attractive candidate and is making headway in black churches but is probably leaning dem.

NJ could be the surprise race. Menendez appeared 12 times before a crim grand jury investigating his mentor. He turned on mentor and testified against. People are beginning to view as typical criminal NJ pol. Definitely a toss up with republican potential for upset. Keane name is gold in NJ, harkens back to good old days.

[Defiant]

LIKELY GOP
I think we keep Arizona, VA and TN. That takes us to 50.

LEANING GOP
I think we keep MO and OH, good chance of losing MT. Up to 52.

TOSSUPS
I think we take MN and NJ, lose WA due to cheating. We may lose NJ to cheating, too, depends how close. We lose RI no matter what, which is no loss anyway. That takes us to 54.

LEANING DEM
PA is probably a loss; I think we will win in MD, that Steele will attract enough black voters to do it, that MI will stay Dem, but be real close. That takes us to 55.

LIKELY DEM
Nelson is only pretending to be conservative, and will immediately revert to a liberal dem after the election, but he has pretended well enough these past 6 months to be elected. He's not much worse than Hegel, and Hegel's liberal positions give him cover.

So, my prediction is we stay at 55, but lose one RINO. Not bad, although losing Santorum will hurt. If he somehow manages to pull it off, and if Burns holds on, it will be a great year. Dems will show what angry metrosexual men look like in November.

[AntiGuv]

I agree with you on Montana and my impulse is to agree with you on Washington, but Cantwell's numbers have been steadily eroding and she's polling considerably under 50% and within the MOE, so by all those measures it's Toss Up by my ordinary standards.

As for Virginia, both that and Arizona are just shy of Likely GOP in my assessment, and just shy of Likely GOP is still Lean GOP, even if just so. :)

And I basically agree with you on Connecticut, except that I am not counting a Lieberman win as an Independent to be a Democratic hold necessarily. IOW, the reason that it's Likely Dem instead of Safe Dem is not because of the odds that Schlesinger (sp?) might win but rather the odds that Lieberman might end up running (and possibly winning) as an Independent.

[Torie]

Lieberman if he wins as an independent will vote with the Dem caucus. He will be a Dem in practice, and might formally become a Dem, unlike Jeffords, because I suspect this is his last term if he wins re-election. Casting Lieberman winning as an independent as a Dem loss is noise.

[AntiGuv]

I guess you're right. I supposeI'll move CT back to Safe Dem, though that does make things look a bit more boring.. You know, Dick Morris says it'll be a true three-way toss-up if Lieberman runs as an Independent.

[Torie]

Ya, I know Dick Morris says that. Dick Morris says a lot of things. But then, so do I. :)

[Yossarian]

Well, the 'pubbie in California has to have at least a bit of a chance - his name alone, "Dick Mountjoy", should be good for a 5-10% boost among all voting blocks (minus the militant lesbians.... :-)