SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- July 2006 Update

RobFromGa | July 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 7/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT


SAFE SEATS (GOP)


IN- (R= current seatholder)- Lugar safe
ME- "R"- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 7 safe + 40 carryovers = 47 minimum


SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman/Lamont safe for Dems (DEM Primary Aug 8! Lieberman 50/50 vs. liberal Dem Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe for Dems
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe (unless darkhorse Tommy Thompson runs-very unlikely)
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Socialiast will win seat easily

12 safe + 27 carryovers =39 minimum

I see fourteen "Contests" at present (July 1), ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. (I= incumbent) The CONTESTS as I see them are:

LIKELY GOP
AZ- R seat- Kyl(I) vs. Pederson (90% chance GOP)
VA- R seat- Allen(I) vs. Webb (90% chance GOP)
TN- R seat- open* (Frist seat) vs. Ford(D) (80% chance GOP) *PRIMARY AUG 3! (running: former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former U.S. Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary)

LEANING GOP
MO- R seat- Talent(I) vs. McCaskill (70% chance GOP)
OH- "R" seat- DeWine(RINO) vs. Brown...DeWine has opened a small lead (60% chance GOP)
MT- R seat- Burns(I) vs. Tester (60% chance GOP)

TOSSUPS
MN- D seat- open* (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy(GOP) (50% chance GOP) *PRIMARY Sept 12!
NJ- D seat- Menendez(I) vs. Kean(RINO)... Menendez has opened slight lead (50% chance RINO)
WA- D seat- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick...McGavick closing small gap (50% chance GOP)
RI- "R" seat- Chafee(I)... 50/50 to lose to conservative Laffey in primary, Laffey almost no chance in Nov (50% chance liberal RINO, 49% liberal Dem, 1% conservative)

LEANING DEM
PA- R- Santorum(I) vs. Casey...Santorum still losing by double digits? (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open* (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (40% chance GOP) *DEM PRIMARY SEPT 12! Cardin leads Mfume
MI- D- Stabenow vs. unknown* (30% chance GOP) *GOP Primary Aug 8 (running: minister Keith Butler, County Sheriff Mike Bouchard)... GOP winner will need DeVos (Gov race vs Granholm) coattails in November

LIKELY DEM
NE- D- Nelson(I) facing Pete Ricketts (Ameritrade) (20% chance GOP)... Nelson may be as conservative as Ricketts anyway

[Torie]

That about sums it up. I would be surprised if the Boelhert seat is a GOP hold, although in upstate NY, the quality of the candidates means a lot in these marginal and rather homogenous districts, so one must pay close attention to that.

[Republican Wildcat]

MO- R seat- Talent(I) vs. McCaskill (70% chance GOP)

How do you figure this? Talent has been consistently behind.

[AntiGuv]

I gave it a bit more thought and I've decided to drop Johnson to the top spot in Likely GOP, above the open Harris seat. That just feels more right to me too. I might tweak things a bit more persuant our discussion, but for now I'm gonna sleep on it!

[AntiGuv]

Oh, one last thing for now. I meant to post this about the open Otter seat ID-01: It's Party Time.

Here's a good example of why that one seems competitive, and might even be rated way too low:

"I'm embarrassed to be living in this state," said Chuck Malloy, who acted as spokesman for Sheila Sorensen, a Republican who ran against Sali but missed out on the nomination by more than 5,000 votes. "You're talking about a guy who ran a smear campaign and got away with it cleanly."

As might be expected, Sorensen is unlikely to appear at the convention, Malloy said. Nor would she ever, he said, be likely to offer an endorsement.

"She wants no part of him," Malloy said. "I'd rather have Hillary Clinton as president than Bill Sali as congressman."

When an Idaho Republican wants Hillary as president, you know they've got issues. LOL

There have been rumors of prominent ID Republicans planning to work behind the scenes for Sali's defeat, and if so that's definitely one to keep an eye on.

[WestVirginiaRebel]

Fifo=F*cking Idiot From Ohio (Excluding Ohio Freeperes, of course). Most often used in reference to their legendary bad driving skills.

[RobFromGa]

Polls for Talent-McCaskill have all been within the margin or error, and I think all polls are slanted towards the liberal. I think that nationally things are breaking in the direction of the Republicans and think that Missouri will re-elect Talent. 60% is probably a better indicator of my confidence though.

[KenmcG414]

"He will be a Dem in practice, and might formally become a Dem, unlike Jeffords, because I suspect this is his last term if he wins re-election."
No question he'll still be a Dem. but he'll support the war and will lean toward Bush on judgeships. Besides, trouble will be brewing for the Dems. when the party refuses to provide funds for Lieberman's run.

[mware]

Menendez will be in trouble in NJ. Corzine and the Dem Legislation may have turned Jersey red.

[RobFromGa]

If Kean can win, he will become one of the biggest RINOs we've got. But I don't think we can get a conservative Senator elected state-wide in New Jersey any time in the near future, so Kean is the best chance to get another seat.

I really wish we were fighting the battle to get a Conservative to beat a liberal in Nebraska, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin. And I wish we had a better candidate in Florida.

Here's the list for 2008, we need good candidates:

2008 TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)

[mware]

Agreed about Kean being a RINO.

The NJ Republican Party will not support a conservative. What they did to Bret Schundler was despicable. I told them I will never donate towards them again, just to individual candidates.

[LdSentinal]

Peggy Lamm is kind of a screwball candidate; she endorsed Owens back in 2002.

I think Rick O'Donnell is a credible candidate, but Mike Coffman would have been so much better.

Beauprez, back in 2002, beat Mike Feeley. Feeley was the senate minority leader for four years before he ran for this seat.

[Torie]

Thanks. :)

[crasher]

unbelievable. See why you have that one where you do.

[marajade]

Why isn't Jon Kyl from AZ a safe seat?

[crasher]

If you give the Dems a 75 percent chance at their leans, a 50 percent chance at the tossups, an average 30 percent chance on the lean GOPers, and a 10 percent chance at the Likelys (and ignore the rest) - That averages out to 15.8 seats. Same calulations on the Dem held seats would probably yield a three seat gain from Dem held seats or something like that.

[Torie]

Fun stuff isn't it?

[RobFromGa]

I had Kyl "Safe" in my May and June predictions.

Due to the immigration issue, and the fact that polls show him in a commanding lead, but with less than 45% of the vote, which is low for an incumbent, I felt he was a litle less than "Safe" so I moved him to the 90% Likley category.

I hope to move him back to "Safe" in the months ahead...

[AntiGuv]

As an idle aside, this is my ratings formula.

1 part punditry (Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, Chuck Todd, Evans-Novak , Chris Cillizza, and CQPolitics)
1 part polls (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Research 2000, Mason-Dixon, etc.)
1 part fundraising (OpenSecrets)
and 1 part campaign news (Political Wire, Politics1, Hotline On Call, D.C.'s Political Report, CQPolitics, The Hill, RealClearPolitics)

[AntiGuv]

OK, I've made some noteworthy alterations to my 'official' July ratings for GOP-held House seats, so here's the list again.

Lean Democratic

1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (PA-06) Gerlach
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (AZ-08) Kolbe*

Toss Up

5 (OH-18) Ney
6 (NM-01) Wilson
7 (NY-24) Boehlert*
8 (CT-02) Simmons
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (FL-22) Shaw
11 (IL-06) Hyde*
12 (NC-11) Taylor
13 (CT-04) Shays
14 (IN-08) Hostettler

Lean Republican

15 (WI-08) Green*
16 (WA-08) Reichert
17 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
18 (MN-06) Kennedy*
19 (KY-04) Davis
20 (OH-15) Pryce
21 (PA-07) Weldon
22 (AZ-05) Hayworth
23 (OH-01) Chabot
24 (VA-02) Drake
25 (IN-02) Chocola
26 (NY-20) Sweeney
27 (WY-AL) Cubin
28 (PA-10) Sherwood
29 (CA-11) Pombo
30 (NH-02) Bass
31 (CO-04) Musgrave
32 (NY-25) Walsh
33 (TX-22) DeLay*

Likely Republican

34 (FL-13) Harris*
35 (NJ-07) Ferguson
36 (CT-05) Johnson
37 (MN-01) Gutknecht
38 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
39 (NY-26) Reynolds
40 (FL-08) Keller
41 (NV-03) Porter
42 (NY-29) Kuhl
43 (NH-01) Bradley
44 (KY-03) Northup
45 (NV-02) Gibbons*
46 (VA-10) Wolf
47 (WV-02) Capito
48 (NY-19) Kelly
49 (ID-01) Otter*
50 (KY-02) Lewis
51 (IA-02) Leach
52 (FL-16) Foley
53 (MN-02) Kline

Watch List

54 (TX-23) Bonilla
55 (PA-04) Hart
56 (IL-10) Kirk
57 (VA-05) Goode
58 (IL-11) Weller
59 (MT-AL) Rehberg
60 (NE-01) Fortenberry
61 (CA-04) Doolittle
62 (NC-08) Hayes
63 (CA-50) Bilbray
64 (MI-08) Rogers

These are the changes:

CT-05 drops from #32 to #36 - a switch from Lean R to Likely R.
FL-09 rises from #42 to #38.
VA-10 enters the rankings at #46.
VA-05 enters the rankings at #57.

FWIW I reconsidered KY-04 and CA-50 in depth and decided against moving either. With regard to the latter, special elections tend to be closer than general elections and Busby will receive neither the millions she got for the special nor the singular party focus. Moreover, Bilbray has received choice committee assignments (Armed Services, Veteran Affairs, Government Reform) and will take a prominent role in the ongoing immigration reform debate. Even in a political landscape more favorable to Dems I think Busby will almost certainly do worse in November than she did in June and I would not be surprised if CA-50 falls off the list altogether. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I see this one: We know Busby can't win under near optimal conditions for her; why is there any good reason to think she can win otherwise?

[Clintonfatigued]

Do you have a list for DemocRAT-held House seats?