Posted on 05/21/2006 12:41:14 PM PDT by quidnunc
So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60-65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more.
More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).
Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration — appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics — and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.
Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.
The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia after Pete Wilson’s immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).
That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP’s dream of being a majority party this year.
The non liberal white Democratic voters are in the most danager of bolting the Democratic party, should a viable 3rd party alternative emerge in 2008. While this contingent has been shrinking for decades, they still tilted the upper midwest + PA towrds Kerry in 2004, and they largely voted Democrat because of their fustration with free trade, but on cultural issues, they are conservatives. For blacks, they are so entrenched into Democratic politics that I seriously doubt they will vote less than 85% Democratic for another generation unless there is a 2nd great depression that can be blamed on Democrats.
But the way I figure it, should a Lou Dobbs style canidate emerge in 2008 with proper funding, that runs on a anti immigrationa and anti free trade(anti globalist) platform, it will play havoc all over the political spectrum.
This poster believes there are far more middle Americans who, after watching the May Day Marchers, are silently fuming at the cojones of illegal aliens protesting and angrily demanding citizenship, but who are by nature mild mannered, worried about being called "racists", who do not speak up - about their deeply held frustration.
Than there are Latinos who will change a GOP vote to a Democrat vote, for securing our borders.
The GOP appeasement wing, doesn't even notice they're out there. Tens of millions of frustrated, and increasingly alienated conservative Americans.
They are the November risk for the GOP. Not illegals who cannot even vote.
Pretending otherwise, is a huge mistake. A mistake which many in the GOP seem determined beyond all logic, to make.
The precipice looms. Bush is at the helm. (queue the dramatic soundtrack)
What will happen?.......
It depends how far back they go, at least in my first hand experience in California. Those of Mexican descent in CA whose ancestry go back 3-4+ generations are more of less similar to white ethnics, and in fact, intermarriage between this group and non hispanic whites is probably at least 50%. This group also is fustrated bvy illegals because it gives them a bad name, but the catch is, this group in California at this point probably make up less than 30% of potential hispanic voters in California. I think this would be true in Texas and Colorado as well.
Also my gut tells me those who have immigrated in the last 25 years and have become citizens came after anti assimilation forces took hold in the instituions such as churches and schools that helped immigrants assimilate in the past, and think of themselves more as their ethnic group still rather than Americans, I know recent immigrants who replaced working class white voters who left California in droves in the 90s is what pulled CA to the left.
well, let's hold on - nothing has passed yet.
but what I am saying is (hypothetically) - suppose there is a segment of current hispanic americans, who voted republican, who will switch to the Dems if the republican party stands for border enforcement and no amnesty - where are we going to go to "replace" those votes?
from the May 19, 2006 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0519/p09s02-cods.html
Bush may be losing his base
Conservatives are openly dissenting from policies of Republican leadership.
By Daniel Schorr
WASHINGTON - The term "base" is not in William Safire's political dictionary, but he tells me it will be included in the next edition. "Base" refers to that solid core of political supporters who will stick with you through electoral thick and thin as long as you are perceived as advancing their principles. Most often, the term is applied to religious conservatives.
Something seems to have gone off the rails between President Bush and his base, judging by a recent Gallup poll that shows his support among conservatives down from a long-standing 80 percent to a current 50 percent.
Religious conservatives have found the administration and Congress falling short on issues such as same-sex marriage, obscenity, and abortion. They have expressed disappointment that the president has not been more active in seeking a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.
The issue of the week is immigration. In what he called a compromise proposal in his television speech on Monday night, the president sought to allay the criticism of conservatives by proposing to deploy 6,000 National Guard troops along the Mexican border.
There may be less there than meets the eye. The Guard troops will be mainly in support roles. The arrangement may not last more than a year. And the president, who also has a business base, felt compelled to propose a "guest-worker" (not amnesty, repeat, not amnesty) program.
At the same time, the administration was trying to shift attention to consensus Republican issues such as tax cuts and judicial nominations. But, the dissension within Republican ranks was evident. The $105 billion war-spending bill, passed by the Senate, was called "dead on arrival" by House speaker Dennis Hastert. When Senate majority leader Bill Frist called Gen. Michael Hayden the "ideal man" for CIA Director, Speaker Hastert announced his opposition to having a military man in the job.
Influential conservatives have begun speaking openly of their reservations about the Republican leadership. Dr. James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family, has said that he might turn critic of the administration unless it does more to deliver on conservative goals.
At this point, the thunder from the right may be in the nature of admonition. But I can recall a time when evangelicals shunned the ballot box. If that were to happen again, it would change the face of American politics.
Believe me as a Puerto Rican, how we are viewed and how we view other Hispanics would surprise you, the amount of dislike, envy, superiority complex, and other factors would astound you, we are not of a like mind, trust me.
America is the Land of Plenty, it will always be seen as defended by the Republicans against those rushing toward the goodies even while Bush is filling the basket.
Hear, hear! Since he has refused to enforce the laws of our Nation and after voting for him twice, I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that Bush should be impeached and tried for treason.
Very well stated.
Casting the ballots others won't.
And if the amnesty plans goes ahead in 10 years the Hispanics will be more than 20% of vote. Republicans will go into oblivion, possible never to recover (the third party might replace them).
Or if the Hispanic influx changes the political culture in USA the Mexican model of one-party oligarchical state might prevail.
"Do they think it fiscally responsible to admit 30 million folks
from a country with one of the lowest compliance rates in paying taxes
of civilized countries?"
The lowest earning 50% of American citizens pay virtually no Federal income tax..about 2%.
Virtually all of the illegal aliens earn an amount that puts them in the lower 50%.
"Legalized" illegal aliens will pay no Federal income tax.
Bush is just a part of the problem. The real problem is the fact the GOP is far too dependent on big and small business alike for donations, and this has given us RINOs such as Sen Grahm R-SC and of course McCain.
Latinos divided on immigration issue
Contrary to scenes of hundreds of thousands of united Latinos marching across the country in support of immigration reform, a sizable number of the ethnic group opposes the marches and strongly objects to illegal immigration.
"That's the objective of the marches -- to give the impression that all Latinos are for allowing the illegals to become citizens," said Phoenix resident Lionel De La Rosa. "Well, I'm not."
The 71-year-old Texas native and Vietnam veteran said he favors punitive measures more in line with the immigration bill passed by the U.S. House in December that would have made it a felony to be in the United States illegally.
"I'm for that 100 percent," he said. "As far as my Latino friends are concerned, they all agree on this."
A 2005 survey by the Pew Hispanic Center found that Latinos in general have favorable attitudes toward immigrants and immigration.
But when it comes to illegal immigration, significant numbers have negative views of illegal immigrants.
The survey found those feelings are strongest among middle-class and middle-age U.S.-born Latinos.
And though 68 percent of Latinos said they believe illegal immigrants help the economy by providing low-cost labor, nearly a quarter felt illegal immigrants hurt the economy by driving down wages.
U.S.-born Latinos looked even less favorably toward illegal immigrants than foreign-born Latinos.
More than a third of U.S.-born Latinos said illegal immigrants hurt the economy, compared with just 15 percent of foreign-born Latinos.
Copyright 2006 Associated Press April 10, 2006
Hispanics are just like all of us. They want the law fgollowed. If the GOP won't make people follow the law they will vote for people who will.
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