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Politics blamed for China's trillion-dollar bad debts
The Australian ^ | May 09, 2006 | Minxin Pei

Posted on 05/08/2006 7:43:07 PM PDT by Leisler

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To: NZerFromHK
I don't pretend to understand this international finance.

The wife owned some Chrysler stock, and now, apparently, I'm German.

21 posted on 05/08/2006 8:11:30 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (How come Mexican illegals don't sneak into Cuba?)
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To: Former Proud Canadian

This could be bad... Depending on how medieval the current Communist leadership is, this may be the trigger to a new wave of Chinese expansion, which would mean World War III... Although China would be alone on its side, unless Russia throws in with the giant to its south, and if Russia pulls a Stalin - we'd end up bailing them out... again.

Get ready to invest in Defense.

(I place Chinese expansion and civil war as equally possible. Both would be bad in terms of casualties, but the latter is infinitely better for us than the former. Except that a Chinese civil war might result in nuclear proliferation on a scale the Russians haven't been able to achieve, though not for lack of trying.)


22 posted on 05/08/2006 8:17:34 PM PDT by coconutt2000 (NO MORE PEACE FOR OIL!!! DOWN WITH TYRANTS, TERRORISTS, AND TIMIDCRATS!!!! (3-T's For World Peace))
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To: G Larry
Wonder how "Trapper" from "MASH" feels about his China investments now?

This is one of his favorites.


23 posted on 05/08/2006 8:18:36 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: Leisler
Okay, I looked up the per capita GDP of both China and the US. China per capita GDP is $6,300 and the US is $42,000 (or 6.67 times higher per person). These are 2005 numbers based on the "CIA Factbook" Web site.
24 posted on 05/08/2006 8:18:45 PM PDT by DB (©)
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To: DB

"Politics blamed for China's trillion-dollar bad debts"

No problem Chi-coms... Print more money!


25 posted on 05/08/2006 8:22:19 PM PDT by Common Sense 101
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To: DB

Here is an article in Chinese that talks about the "vassals economy" China is in now. What happens in China is that they now have de facto economic federalism as the regional Communist governments don't listen to voices from Beijing. What Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao say can't even reach outside Zhongnanhai (the Communist and executive power compounds in Beijing).

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/6/4/7/n1280307.htm

What happened is that the high GDP growth is financed by provinces and municipalities (cities) getting foreign investments via subsidized lands (they didn't need to pay anything to buy the land, and even teh governments would pay the costs of developing plants!), and Beijing promoted public infrastructures growth to increase economic activities (classical Keynesian policy).

These two policies interwine with the problem that the banks are controlled by Beijing BUT the regional heads are appointed and managed by the provincial and municipalities governments. In this way the regional governments can raise debts over subsidizing foreign investments and new civil engineering projects, and then it is Beijing's turns to pay the debts. The results are what the original article outlines.

And don't forget neither of the regional provincial, municipalities governments, nor the central government in Beijing is in black. All are accuring massive deficits themselves.


26 posted on 05/08/2006 8:24:20 PM PDT by NZerFromHK (Leftism is like honey mixed with arsenic: initially it tastes good, but that will end up killing you)
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To: DB

I think the official figure for the richest province, Guangdong, officially managed to break over US$10,000 only last year. And add to it only Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing, and Fujian are prosperous. These areas comprise about 20% of the populations. All other provinces is about 1/3 or even 1/2 lower than the wealthy areas' levels. This is why I think the $6,300 figure sounds a bit too high.

Also I know some non-politically related people who are starting to feel well off, but they would be considered pretty poor even by Malaysian or Thai standards. Most of the wealth is concentrated in party opfficials and their cronies (dai quans).


27 posted on 05/08/2006 8:30:13 PM PDT by NZerFromHK (Leftism is like honey mixed with arsenic: initially it tastes good, but that will end up killing you)
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To: Navy Patriot
Don't worry, the Germans are now trying to figure out why their wives bought Chrysler as well. Nobody has a good answer yet but everybody on the German side realizes that it was a huge mistake.

Great tagline, btw.

28 posted on 05/08/2006 8:51:37 PM PDT by bpjam (Now accepting liberal apologies.....)
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To: DB; NZerFromHK
...per capita GDP of both China and the US. China per capita GDP is $6,300 and the US is $42,000 (or 6.67 times higher per person). These are 2005 numbers based on the "CIA Factbook" Web site.

The CIA uses Purchasing Power Parity. I'm not so sure that's the best way to measure per capita GDP or the size of their total GDP. China's per capita GDP is more likely $1,200 while the US has a per capita GDP of more than $36,000.

Heritage Foundation: Index of Economic Freedom

29 posted on 05/08/2006 8:51:51 PM PDT by Mase
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To: Brilliant
If true, then China is on the verge of economic collapse.

That's the way I read it.

30 posted on 05/08/2006 8:52:53 PM PDT by processing please hold (Be careful of charity and kindness, lest you do more harm with open hands than with a clinched fist)
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To: gaijin
Good point about the lack of women, all through history rape and pillage sells, its a big recruitment draw
31 posted on 05/08/2006 8:56:27 PM PDT by roverman2K6
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To: Leisler
You should see how much they have spent on their so called coming out party, the 2008 summer olympics, on the facilities. They are spending 24 billion dollars on just subway and infrastructure improvements around Beijing, and that not even includes the reported 3 to 4 billion for the olympic stadium and other sports facilities for the games.

The original olympic stadium became soo expensive and over the top, they ended up scrapping many of its features, but the initial design and metal work is still happening.

What they are still building (nicknamed the birds nest):

32 posted on 05/08/2006 8:58:07 PM PDT by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: coconutt2000
this may be the trigger to a new wave of Chinese expansion,

I believe they are already migrating into Russia and eying that area.

33 posted on 05/08/2006 9:00:03 PM PDT by processing please hold (Be careful of charity and kindness, lest you do more harm with open hands than with a clinched fist)
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To: NZerFromHK

Mankind, the World, humanity because of science can now, by and large, feed and meet the basic material needs of people for the first time in history. Furthermore, the scientific, computers, modern agriculture and basic health have only begun to have their effects. The big problem that can ruin this is politics. Communism is false, untrue delusion. It is a lie.

China has given up on the shinning illusion of Communism, kept the worst parts and embraced the energies of capitalism, good and bad. With out open, honest politics, central political control and greed will produce malignant monsters.

Hope for the best.


34 posted on 05/08/2006 9:00:18 PM PDT by Leisler (Not all Muslims are terrorists, but all terrorists are Muslim.)
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

It looks like an upside-down sombrero.


35 posted on 05/08/2006 9:00:32 PM PDT by freedumb2003
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To: DB

A lot of their growth is fake growth and their economy is becoming more and more pumped and bubble like. Much of it is based on massive currency manipulation.

There is a massive recession looming on the horizon for them. Could make what happened in Japan look small by comparison.


36 posted on 05/08/2006 9:01:06 PM PDT by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: shaggy eel

Interesting China *ping*


37 posted on 05/08/2006 9:01:38 PM PDT by kstewskis (Blessed are those who can give without remembering, and take without forgetting.)
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To: Brilliant
From my sophomoric understanding, as soon as T-Bill/US interest rates increase, the foreign cash that props up these banks will dry up (as that money flows back into T-Bills).

Then the question is, what does China do militarily.
38 posted on 05/08/2006 9:09:44 PM PDT by Dead Dog
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To: adam_az
Like, *PING*, dude.

Cheers!

39 posted on 05/08/2006 9:14:45 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: DB
Yes, they've been producing lots of growth. But when you start out dirt poor there's plenty of room to go up. I'd guess their per capita income is a tenth of ours. They have a long, long way to go... Their corrupt communist government is not compatible with the freedom required to truly catch up.

Thats very true they are so poor that they can go up for a long time. In real terms they are only about 1/30th of America's per capita gdp. So even with very serious problems like non-performing loans they still can grow. They don't even need to invent, just copy what other nations already do.

I think their political system is an asset for them at this stage of development. As they can do long term deep reform that would not be possible in a democracy. The main thing they have to do however is deal with corruption, and institutionalize things like property rights.. That to me is the real strength of the anglo-saxon nations.

40 posted on 05/08/2006 9:14:59 PM PDT by ran15
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