Pacific island nations eye China's rise

UPI ^ | March 27, 2006 | KATHLEEN HWANG

[CrawDaddyCA]

The Red Dragon is spreading its wings.

[ARCADIA]

...and, we are doing our best imitation of Chamberlain's Britain.

[ARCADIA]

...and, we are doing our best imitation of Chamberlain's Britain.

[tigtog]

Not to worry, we have a two ocean, cutting edge, Navy with nothing to do. China has a brown water navy that can't even display its presence beyond 70 miles of its coast. Hell, every time they launch a submarine it sinks. Shoosh. The Imperial Japanese Navy it ain't. China is a threat only if you view a Napoleonic land march a threat.

[ketelone]

"The Imperial Japanese Navy it ain't"

It aint even the Japanese MAritime Self Defense Forces of today. Those puppies could whup the so called PLA (navy)'s butt any day of the week, with one hand tied behind their back.

[MaDeuce]

Once again, history will go unheaded as the new Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere is created.

And how long do yo think it will be before the Chinese navy does become a force to recon with 10, 15, 20 years?

It will be a reality at some point unless democracy takes hold in China.

And remember ... every dime or quarter you spend in Walmart or where ever on a Chinese product will be a bullet coming back in your son's or grandson's belly, unless we use our economic power to turn China towards freedom.

[coconutt2000]

China's still got a long way to go, and it has to balance economic growth with control of its people.

As such, China is going to be privately financing and offering security to tyrants and brutal dictators in Africa and South America so as to tie up our attention outside of Asia while China manages its internal affairs. Iraq was a big loss for China because it means China won't have an ally in Saddam to stir up trouble at a strategic time when China is ready to make its move on Taiwan.

[tigtog]

My guess is that if they took an extremely aggressive military development/procurement program, both navy and air forces, they could possibly be a threat in 50 years. As it stands they are trying mightily to be able to invade Taiwan and have not even met that threshold to date. The threat of an outwardly aggressive China should be balanced by the equally likely possibility of an internal civil war between the wealthy coasts and poor hinterlands. Economic development brings with it a lot of unexpected surprises for dictators.

[CrawDaddyCA]

I'd give it 15 years...tops. They are launching destroyers that are comparable to our Burke's, and they are rapidly trying to form up carrier battle groups. It's almost like the late 1930's all over again, funny how history repeats itself.

We will see a war on a scale incomparable to any other conflict in the worlds history, and it scares the hell out of me.

Jeff Head's 'Dragon Fury' series gives us a brief glimpse of what it'll be like, but I fear it'll be far worse than anything imaginable.

[tigtog]

We currently have 12 Carrier Task Forces. They currenty have none. They currently have no blue water submarine escorts for a carrier. How in the hell do you figure in 15 years they overcome those technological and numerical inferiorities? No way. For a Navy to be compentent, it needs to exercise at least one generation of Officers and sailors in a modern navy setting. Currently they do not have one generation of competent Officers and sailors on deck. Remember, I didn't note any of their shortfalls in satellite reconnaissance.

[CrawDaddyCA]

All of their shortcomings that you mentioned can be caught up if they are aggressive enough, and the Chinese have been nothing but aggresive lately. They have money to burn, and their defense buget is rising every year.

Don't get me wrong, you make a vald and convincing arguement. I hope you're right. Hopefully FR will still be around in 15 years, and I'll graciously accept an 'I told you so' at that time.

[buglemanster]

It didn't take long for the Japanese to go from wooden junks to the Imperial Navy. What makes you so confident that the Chinese navy will always be at its present state? That's kind of foolhardy, don't you think? The Chinese aren't exactly landlubbers considering half their population live near the coast and nor are they insular considering that there are Chinese everywhere in the world. FYI, they are creating a blue-water navy as we speak. They just recently announced their decision to pursue a carrier group.

[Jeff Head]

Their initial task will be one where they attempt to exercise control and dominance in the littoral waters of the China Sea near their own coastlines. That's their first stepping zone. They will have to confront us to achieve that, but they are building the force structure now to do so.

We, OTHO, despite our quantatiative and qualitative advantage now, will have global duties and priorities which will keep us from massing on that front. If other conflicts conttinue to require our presence, and if the DNC or a true RINO gets in the opval office...I look for them (under those two conditions) some time after the olympics to potentially test us there over Taiwan, the Spratelys or some other issue.

At current build rates, four or five years from now they will have the numbers and the technology and the training with their newer surface combatants and submarines to make such an attempt. They may or may not have a carrier at that point...I believe the Varyag will be operational in that time frame...but in the littoral waters where their land based air is so close at hand, a carrier will not make a lot of difference (other than a potentially dangerous distraction for us...more of an issue to local nations) in that first gambit.

Just my opinion.

[MaDeuce]

We currently have 12 Carrier Task Forces. They currently have none. They currently have no blue water submarine escorts for a carrier. How in the hell do you figure in 15 years they overcome those technological and numerical inferiorities? I believe the special missile guidance technology that Klinton sold to the Chinese will help them out with this problem ... one multi-killoton warhead on a cruise missile will take care of a carrier fleet quite nicely ... unfortunately. I believe the Chinese would not hesitate to use nukes in a Taiwan conflict ... the US on the other hand would no doubt hesitate to use them in retaliation. But lets look at another scenario, the Chinese are becoming very friendly with Mexico. They will extend a hand to Mexico to help build ports for their products in exchange for Mexican oil. They already own the companies controlling the Panama canal locks. With Mexicans "invading" the US from the south now, why would it be too far teched to think that in 30 or 40 years a 120 to 150 divisions of Chi-Coms wouldn't make a move across the southern US boarder. We'll be so busy destroying ourselves to even notice at that time. Just a thought ... :^)

[buglemanster]

Dock in China (Dalian), work on the aircraft carrier

[tigtog]

If China wants to demonstrate power abroad it needs a navy to do it. Without a navy that can at least checkmate ours (4-5 carrier task forces) they cannot project power. I do not see anyway they can pull off a navy of significant proportions and technological savy to threaten us in the near future. Also consider that the Japanese have a sizable compentent navy in the vicinity which would combine with ours. Ditto Taiwan and South Korea. We would probably see further reinforcement from Australia/NZ. China is using its military build up to offset its political weakness at home. It makes everyone feel proud and secure when the truth is they are neither. China's real threat comes from within as a portion of their population becomes wealthy and a majority of it does not. China has been down this road before and it ended in civil war. With a historical and philosophical underpinning of socialism how can the have's argue successfully with the have-nots?

[buglemanster]

With a historical and philosophical underpinning of socialism how can the have's argue successfully with the have-nots?

The have's have the backing of the military and industry. The have-not's are not armed. That's how.

The rich-poor gap in China today is geographical, this means the chances of another national revolution is low. The only threat to China is fragmentation (federalization), not revolution.

[Jeff Head]

Yep...see my latest post/thread on the update to the Varyag...

Latest update on Varyag

That coating on the flight deck appears to be zincchromate and is the primer for a heavy duty non-skid surface. That's another clear indication (IMHO) that she is being outfitted for military use and not a "casino".

[RightWhale]

Is that the former Japanese port city?

[tigtog]

Dude, who do you think fled to Taiwan in the first place??? Taiwan holds the future to China, not the other way around. Sooner or later this realization will occur to a broad spectrum of the population (see Tinamein Square). Gorby thought he could ride the reform tiger and it ate him. My bet is the PRC leadership will fail to hold things together peacefully and will ultimately resort to violence to maintain their status. The violence will be directed at their own people not ours. Its a waiting game. We have history and economic logic on our side. They are pissing into the wind.