Liberals crossing fingers for razor-thin majority (Martin predicting 115 seat minority win)

CTV ^ | January 22, 2005

[johnmecainrino]

Liberals crossing fingers for razor-thin majority

RICHMOND, B.C. — Liberals enter Monday's election left hoping for a best-case scenario that would see them narrowly avert defeat and scrape by with a small minority government.

Paul Martin told a partisan crowd in British Columbia the province - where the Liberals hope to gain five seats - will decide whether his government gets re-elected.

Party strategists have pinpointed a list of about 115 ridings they believe they could win, a total that would still leave them at least 40 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons.

What might have been a grim prospect only weeks ago is now a fingers-crossing hope for a party entering its first election in 18 years as an underdog.

"The eyes of Canada are going to be on British Columbia tomorrow night - the election is going to be decided here," Martin told a boisterous crowd of B.C. Liberals.

"We have the numbers. We can stop (Conservative Leader) Stephen Harper."

If Martin goes down Monday, his defeat will come after an energetic 11th-hour sprint across the country.

A journey that began in Newfoundland three days earlier concluded with Martin strolling hand-in-hand with his wife, Sheila, along the Pacific shoreline Sunday.

The couple will head to vote in Martin's riding of LaSalle-Emard on Monday, following a few hours' sleep and a flight scheduled to have them back in Montreal around 3 a.m.

They will join their three sons and daughter-in-law to take in the election results from a suite in their downtown hotel room.

Then it's off to a banquet hall where Martin will address Liberal troops. If he loses, the question on everyone's lips will be whether Martin will use that concession speech to announce his retirement from politics.

But the prime minister refused to speculate about his own future and spent his final day on the hustings warning what could happen to the country under a Harper-led government.

It would be the end of the Liberals' proposed national day-care program - which the Tories would replace with a $1,200 child-care subsidy.

Harper has also said he would re-open negotiations on joining the U.S. missile-defence project and back away from both the Kyoto accord to curb greenhouse gases and a multibillion-dollar treaty with aboriginals.

Harper promised to replace those Liberal commitments with his own plans, but has offered few details.

The Liberals' best hope of retaining power now depends on a last-minute stampede of NDP and Green party supporters hoping to block Harper by voting Grit.

Martin's speeches in the campaign's final days have been aimed squarely at those voters, who helped the party keep enough seats to form a minority government in 2004.

"If you lend Jack Layton your vote, you will hand Stephen Harper your country," he said. "Canadians have to spend today and tomorrow thinking about it."

Canadians could be in store for nasty surprises because the Tories have not explained what programs they would cut to fill a $23 billion gap in their platform, Martin reiterated.

Harper says he would fill that gap by slowing down increases already promised by the Liberals. Martin pointed out that his opponents' platform never spells out where those reductions would occur.

"It was simply a return to the wing-a-prayer kind of forecasting I saw when I took over from the Tories in 1993 as finance minister," he said of his opponent's platform.

"And then ... (Harper) can't tell Canadians what he's going to do about (filling that gap)? That's a lack of accountability."

He also poked fun at Harper for clamping down on his own candidates throughout the campaign. Unscripted musings by socially conservative candidates were seen as a prime reason the Tories blew an early lead in the 2004 campaign.

"When Stephen Harper will not allow his candidates to talk to the press, then ask yourself what his definition of accountability is," Martin said, with his Vancouver-area candidates standing behind him.

[GiveEmDubya]

I think they're lowballing the Conservatives. I think they'll do better than 41 in Ontario, make some gains in the Maritimes, and I think there's an outside chance that something big will happen in Quebec tomorrow night. I'd personally put the Conservatives near at least 130.

On an aside, I'll wear all blue tomorrow in support of our northern Conservative friends!

[Heatseeker]

electionprediction.org has always lowballed the Conservative chances; probably because most of their contributors are left-leaning. Try democraticspace.com where they have the Tories at 128 and the Liberals at 94. I think that's closer to the truth.

[Heatseeker]

On an aside, I'll wear all blue tomorrow in support of our northern Conservative friends!

Great idea! I will do the same. And of course I still have my Conservative yard sign out, that I 'borrowed' the day after the last election. ;)

[faithincowboys]

If the libs win, Canuckistan should be obliterated.

[GiveEmDubya]

I wore all blue on the day when the Brits had their election last year, and the Tories ended up gaining 30-something seats. I hope for even better results this time. ;)

[goldstategop]

I'm really really praying the Liberals fall to third place. Although I don't think it will happen it would be wonderful not to see them get in front of the Bloc. Gilles Duceppe would be more of an Opposition Leader than Martin would ever be.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[goldstategop]

That's why I think the polls are off about the size of the Blue Wave. If my hunch is right, Martin's fantasies of a return to power will crash on the shoals of political reality.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[REDWOOD99]

They got Diebold in Canada? ;)

[goldstategop]

The betting in the Canadian markets is the same as Ipsos' last poll: a strong Conservative minority. That hasn't changed in the last several days. If the Liberals do pull off an upset tomorrow, a lot of investors stand to lose money on the outcome.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[TruthSetsUFree]

"Don't forget to pray for a Conservative victory in Canada tomorrow!"

Amen. I've been praying and will continue to pray.

[Heatseeker]

Nope, it's all done by paper ballots. Generally speaking there are more polling places per voters than there are in the US so it doesn't slow down the process too much.

Note election regulations in Canada are controlled at the federal level, not by the provinces.

[goldstategop]

No. Old fashioned paper ballot. You mark an X besides your choice of candidate in your riding and drop it in the ballot box. No chads to deal with. The only thing that could mar this election is vote fraud.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Heatseeker]

Addressed to our Canadian friends who may be in ridings where strategic voting can help, if they are not opposed to doing such a thing. DemocraticSpace has put out it's final update of the Conservative Strategic Voting Guide.

[conservative in nyc]

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	Jan 20-22	3.1%
Final  Ipsos Reid/Global	38%	27%	19%	12%	4% (Other)	Jan 18-22(?)	(?)
Latest Ekos	37.1%	26.9%	19.5%	11.5%	4.6%	Jan 18-20	2.0%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	27%	19%	11%	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	2.0%
Latest Leger	38%	29%	17%	11%	-	Jan 12-17	2.1%
Latest Decima	37%	27%	18%	11%	-	Jan 12-15	3.1%
University of B.C. Elections Market	38.8%	28.9%	17.8%	11.1%	5.9% (Other)	Jan 23 12:10AM EST	-
Actual 2004	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	30%	34%	20%	12%	4%	June 20-24	< 4.1%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	31%	32%	17%	12%	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	31.8%	32.6%	19.0%	11.2%	4.9%	June 21-24	1.4%

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	130	92	30	55	1	-	Jan 23 12Mid EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	99	28	58	1	4	Jan 22 4:21PM EST
At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Ipsos Reid 2004	115-119	99-103	22-26	64-68	-	-	June 25
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 27 4:06PM

[conservative in nyc]

Update to Election Predictions Project:

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	130	92	30	55	1	-	Jan 23 12Mid EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	104	29	56	1	4	Jan 22 11:06PM EST
At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Ipsos Reid 2004	115-119	99-103	22-26	64-68	-	-	June 25
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 27 4:06PM

[conservative in nyc]

The Too Close column should be deleted.

[Para-Ord.45]

going to vote?

BRING A PEN !!!!

All they supply is a pencil. Pencils have erasers.

[goldstategop]

We safely add one point for the Conservatives and subtract two for the Liberals. So we have 38% Conservative 26% Liberal, 20% NDP, 14% BQ, 2% Others. In terms of seat count, we should have 160 Conservatives 56 Liberals 60 BQ and 32 NDP. That sounds about right for a narrow Conservative majority and the reason the Liberals are in third place is because the Bloc has more seats out in Quebec. So it becomes the Official Opposition.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Heatseeker]

I thought you were required to use their pencils. Not so?

[Para-Ord.45]

"I thought you were required to use their pencils."

Dunno really.

I`d use their pencil,then mark an ink X inside the pencil X in case of fraud," Oops look,another vote for Gore" etc.