Replies

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	Jan 20-22	3.1%
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	38%	27%	19%	12%	4% (Other)	Jan 18-22(?)	(?)
Latest Ekos	37.1%	26.9%	19.5%	11.5%	4.6%	Jan 18-20	2.0%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	27%	19%	11%	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	2.0%
Latest Leger	38%	29%	17%	11%	-	Jan 12-17	2.1%
Latest Decima	37%	27%	18%	11%	-	Jan 12-15	3.1%
University of B.C. Elections Market	38.8%	28.9%	17.8%	11.1%	5.9% (Other)	Jan 23 12:10AM EST	-

Actual 2004	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	30%	34%	20%	12%	4%	June 20-24	< 4.1%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	31%	32%	17%	12%	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	31.8%	32.6%	19.0%	11.2%	4.9%	June 21-24	1.4%

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	130	92	30	55	1	-	Jan 23 12Mid EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	99	28	58	1	4	Jan 22 4:21PM EST

At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Ipsos Reid 2004	115-119	99-103	22-26	64-68	-	-	June 25
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 27 4:06PM

Update to Election Predictions Project:

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	130	92	30	55	1	-	Jan 23 12Mid EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	104	29	56	1	4	Jan 22 11:06PM EST

At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Ipsos Reid 2004	115-119	99-103	22-26	64-68	-	-	June 25
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 27 4:06PM

We safely add one point for the Conservatives and subtract two for the Liberals. So we have 38% Conservative 26% Liberal, 20% NDP, 14% BQ, 2% Others. In terms of seat count, we should have 160 Conservatives 56 Liberals 60 BQ and 32 NDP. That sounds about right for a narrow Conservative majority and the reason the Liberals are in third place is because the Bloc has more seats out in Quebec. So it becomes the Official Opposition.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")